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On August 2, Russias First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Konstantin Polyansky, stated at a Security Council meeting that UN staff were unwilling to take seriously the Ukrainian militarys attack on Russian civilian facilities, which undermined the UNs authority. He said: "In this case, the relevant staff of the UN Secretariat acted with extreme hypocrisy, feigning ignorance and evading responsibility by claiming they could not verify the authenticity of the information about Ukrainian crimes. All of this clearly undermined the authority of our global organization."On August 2nd, a full year since the Bank of England began its interest rate-cutting cycle, despite four consecutive rate cuts and the likelihood of further cuts, British households continue to face the highest borrowing costs in a generation. Analysis of Bank of England savings and mortgage data shows that Britons are spending £11 billion (US$14.5 billion) less annually than in July of last year. This loss stems primarily from two factors: First, the rate cuts have hit savers hard, significantly reducing the returns on their savings. Second, many homeowners have yet to benefit from the rate cuts, as they are still waiting for mortgages locked in during periods of high interest rates to expire. Edward Allenby, an economist at Oxford Economics, said: "Against the backdrop of slowing real wage growth and tighter fiscal policy, the lagged impact of past rate hikes on mortgage holders will continue to dampen consumption. The Bank of Englands rate-cutting cycle is unlikely to provide a significant boost to business investment and consumer spending over the next few years."DeepBlue Auto: Global deliveries of 27,169 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 62%.On August 2, CNN reported that the United States plans to conduct the first large-scale test of its Golden Dome missile defense system before the 2028 presidential election, allowing the current administration to promote it as a political achievement during the campaign. The report indicated that the test is tentatively scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2028. An unnamed US Department of Defense official stated that this timeline indicates that Republicans want to have a demonstration to show during the November election. He also noted that completing the systems test preparations within such a tight timeframe is an "extremely challenging task," especially given the high technical complexity of deploying a new missile interceptor system. This test may only be the first phase of the Golden Dome project, and full deployment will take much longer.YouGov poll: Most Americans believe tariffs hurt American consumers; only 22% blame foreign manufacturers.

AUD/USD demonstrates pre-Fed anxiety near 0.64 ahead of the US ADP Employment Change

Daniel Rogers

Nov 02, 2022 17:54

 截屏2022-11-02 上午10.53.53.png

 

Ahead of Wednesday's key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, traders become cautious, causing AUD/USD to bounce around 0.6400. Traders of the Australian dollar-United States dollar pair are challenged by both pre-Fed anxiety and China- and U.S.-related concerns during a poor Asian session.

 

However, recent strong US data reinforced expectations for hawkish Fed action and defied the market's initial anticipation that officials will signal fewer rate hikes beginning in December. However, increased recession fears and rising price pressure look to present a challenge for both Fed hawks and AUD/USD bears.

 

Despite this, the US JOLTS Job Openings increased to 10,717M in September, compared to the forecast of 10.0M and the upwardly revised readings of 10.28M. In addition, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in October, compared to market forecasts of 50 and a previous reading of 50.9. Final readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October exceeded 49.9 preliminary predictions to reach 50.4, but stayed below the 52.0 readings from the prior month.

 

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preparedness to offer additional rate hikes, after announcing the second increase of 25 basis points (bps) to the benchmark rate the previous day, benefits AUD/USD buyers. During his scheduled speech on Tuesday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe noted, "Rates have been significantly increased in a very short period of time." According to the official, the board has determined that a more gradual rate rise is necessary.

 

Aside from this, prospects of reducing covid restrictions in China and the recently higher China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October may have helped AUD/USD buyers in the past, despite being the third consecutive reading below 50.

 

Yields remain unchanged at 4.05% following a solid start to November, while S&P 500 Futures register moderate gains despite Wall Street's poor close.

 

Consequently, AUD/USD pair traders should keep an eye on risk triggers and Australia's September Building Permits for fresh market impetus. Also essential will be the US ADP Employment Change for the month of October, as it gives an early indicator for Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, significant emphasis should be placed on the Fed's ability to transmit a brake on the rapid rate hikes.

 

Combined with the AUD/USD pair's resistance to dip below the 10-DMA support near.6390, Tuesday's daily candle gives buyers hope. A downward-sloping resistance line from the beginning of August, which was near 0.6480 at the time of writing, challenges the upward momentum of the quote.


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