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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: Overnight, international gold prices were mixed. London spot gold fluctuated narrowly, COMEX gold futures rose 0.18%, and SHFE gold fell 0.16%. The Federal Reserve will hold its March interest rate meeting early Thursday morning Beijing time. This meeting will focus on three key areas: 1. Whether monetary policy will shift. The meeting will release the latest dot plot. At the December meeting, officials were divided, with the median expectation being one rate cut (25 basis points) this year. The focus this time is whether further rate cuts are possible. 2. The Summary of Second Quarter Forecasts (SEP). Fed officials will make predictions on inflation and economic trends, especially the actual impact of the March oil price surge on inflation. 3. The Fed Chairmans post-meeting remarks. This is the first Fed meeting since the Middle East conflict. Facing rising oil prices, weak employment, and legal investigations, Chairman Powells statements at the press conference are worth watching, especially how he assesses the "two-way risk" of the oil price surge triggered by the Middle East conflict on inflation and growth. Gold may experience increased volatility after the meeting; cautious trading is advised. 4. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict remains unresolved. Trump stated that most NATO allies have indicated their unwillingness to be involved in US military action against Iran, and that the US "does not need anyones help." Israel stated that two senior Iranian officials have been "eliminated." 5. The US-Iran conflict remains the focus of gold trading. A buy-on-dips strategy is recommended. Regardless of future inflation or stagflation expectations, golds strategic allocation position will increase. Liquidity concerns have actually provided investors with an opportunity to buy and hold at lower prices. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)According to NHK, the Japan-US summit will issue a joint statement agreeing to a second round of investment exceeding 11 trillion yen.S&P Global: Middle East wars will exacerbate volatility for South Korean oil refining companies.South Korean envoy: We have successfully avoided the worst-case scenario in the oil sector.March 18 – The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference on March 18. The Fourth Session of the 14th National Peoples Congress reviewed and approved this years Government Work Report. How will the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office implement the Taiwan-related content in the Government Work Report? Spokesperson Chen Binhua stated that this year marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The Taiwan-related content in this years Government Work Report comprehensively elaborates on the major policies, principles, positions, and objectives of current Taiwan-related work, and is of great guiding significance for carrying out this years Taiwan-related work. With the successful conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, my countrys economic strength, scientific and technological strength, national defense strength, and overall national strength have reached new heights, and Chinese-style modernization has taken new and solid steps, laying a more solid foundation for advancing the great cause of national reunification. The implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan will undoubtedly provide broader development opportunities for Taiwan compatriots and enterprises.

AUD/USD RBA Continuation of the upswing is predicated upon breaching the 0.7045-50 resistance area

Daniel Rogers

Aug 02, 2022 15:08

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The MACD and RSI indicators favor purchasers, but the RBA controls the market. AUD/USD trades between 0.7025 and 0.7030 during the midday Asian session on Tuesday. Traders anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision as the Aussie pair flirts with a significant northward resistance level.

 

In addition to the confluence of the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the downward sloping trend line from April 20, AUD/USD bulls face the risk that the RBA may refrain from making too aggressive statements due to widespread recession concerns.

 

Notably, the early MACD signals and the RSI (14), which are not overbought, encourage AUD/USD buyers. Continuous trading above April's downward-sloping resistance line, which is currently 0.6910 support, is on the same line.

 

Should the downward swings push the quote below 0.6910, the mid-June and May lows of 0.6850 and 0.6830, respectively, will test the pair's further slide before reversing to the yearly low of 0.6680.

 

In contrast, a successful break over the 0.7050 resistance level requires confirmation from the June 16 swing high around 0.7070 prior to driving AUD/USD prices towards the 50 percent and 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of the April-July drop, near 0.7175 and 0.7300, respectively.