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March 22nd - For investors eager to "buy the dip," institutions generally offered cautious advice. "Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have clearly broken through the key support level of the 60-day moving average, meaning further downside potential may be unlocked," one trader advised. Given that negative factors such as the Feds monetary policy and the dollars performance are still unfolding, the short-term downtrend is not yet over, and ordinary investors should not blindly try to catch a falling knife. They should wait for gold prices to consolidate and stabilize within the $4400-$4600/ounce range before gradually accumulating positions for medium- to long-term holding.March 22nd - The markets current focus is on whether gold prices can rebound. Huaxia Fund analysis suggests that gold, considered a safe-haven asset, has been declining since March because its safe-haven appeal stems from the collapse of the US dollars credit and runaway inflation, rather than from liquidity depletion and deflationary risks. The market is currently concerned about marginal deterioration in liquidity, while the impact of geopolitical conflicts has significantly weakened. The institution believes that the monetary tightening impact on gold is more temporary, and the long-term logic of geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold purchases remains unshaken or reversed. Golds medium- to long-term upward momentum continues, but in the short term, it still needs to wait for risk release. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, points out that the current plunge in gold prices is not a signal of the end of the bull market, but rather a deep correction during an upward trend. In the long term, the normalization of global geopolitical risks, strong gold purchase demand from non-US central banks, and the risk of the global economy shifting from "inflation" to "stagnation" will all provide solid support for gold prices.March 22 – At the China Development Forum 2026 held today (March 22), Finance Minister Lan Foan stated that, in response to the prominent contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in the current economic operation, a comprehensive approach will be taken, utilizing policy tools such as deficit spending, special bonds, and loan interest subsidies to build a strong domestic market. Lan Foan stated that greater efforts will be made to boost consumption and increase the力度 of inclusive policies directly reaching consumers. This year, 250 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be allocated to support the trade-in of old consumer goods, and a 100 billion yuan special fund for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand will be established, providing more substantial financial support for consumption. Simultaneously, efforts will be made to enhance long-term consumption capacity, strengthen support for employment, improve the social security system, strengthen the regulatory role of taxation and transfer payments, and increase residents income through multiple channels.Market news: A British nuclear-powered submarine has arrived in the Arabian Sea.On March 22nd, Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities, stated that in the long run, favorable factors supporting gold prices remain. The current plunge in gold prices is not a signal of the end of the bull market, but rather a deep correction during an upward trend. First, global geopolitical risks have become the norm. The Trump administrations foreign policy has led to an increase in the frequency of conflicts and exacerbated chain reactions, which will continue to weaken the credibility of the US dollar. Second, non-US central banks willingness to purchase gold remains strong, which is expected to continue to push up the central price of gold. Under the new normal of geopolitical risks, increasing gold holdings has become an important option for non-US central banks to cope with sanctions risks and enhance financial security. Emerging market central banks are particularly active, and there is still considerable room for reserve growth. Third, if global economic risks shift from "inflation" to "stagnation," gold prices are expected to be supported. High global energy prices, on the one hand, directly erode residents actual consumption power, and on the other hand, may suppress demand and curb inflation by forcing monetary policy tightening, ultimately potentially leading to economic downturn or even recession. In a "stagnation" environment, the strategic value of gold will be further highlighted.

AUD/USD RBA Continuation of the upswing is predicated upon breaching the 0.7045-50 resistance area

Daniel Rogers

Aug 02, 2022 15:08

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The MACD and RSI indicators favor purchasers, but the RBA controls the market. AUD/USD trades between 0.7025 and 0.7030 during the midday Asian session on Tuesday. Traders anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision as the Aussie pair flirts with a significant northward resistance level.

 

In addition to the confluence of the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the downward sloping trend line from April 20, AUD/USD bulls face the risk that the RBA may refrain from making too aggressive statements due to widespread recession concerns.

 

Notably, the early MACD signals and the RSI (14), which are not overbought, encourage AUD/USD buyers. Continuous trading above April's downward-sloping resistance line, which is currently 0.6910 support, is on the same line.

 

Should the downward swings push the quote below 0.6910, the mid-June and May lows of 0.6850 and 0.6830, respectively, will test the pair's further slide before reversing to the yearly low of 0.6680.

 

In contrast, a successful break over the 0.7050 resistance level requires confirmation from the June 16 swing high around 0.7070 prior to driving AUD/USD prices towards the 50 percent and 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of the April-July drop, near 0.7175 and 0.7300, respectively.