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AkerBP, a Norwegian independent oil company, has made a major oil discovery in the Ingdlasir area, with recoverable reserves estimated at 96 million to 134 million barrels of oil equivalent.On August 21st, PGIM Chief Global Economist Daleep Singh stated in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may signal a more gradual approach to rate cuts at the Jackson Hole conference. Last weeks US CPI and PPI data showed that inflation remained stubbornly above 3%. He noted that the number of CPI components exceeding 4% was equal to that below 2%, a first since the inflation peak of 2021-2022. Against this backdrop, PGIM remains confident in its forecast, predicting that the Fed will have cut interest rates by a cumulative 100 basis points by next year, approximately 50 basis points below current market expectations.Futures data for August 21st: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 735,176 contracts, down 25,376 contracts from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,919,936 contracts, down 2,885 contracts from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 143,494 contracts, up 12,785 contracts from the previous trading day. Open interest was 207,416 contracts, up 1,980 contracts from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 488,686 contracts, down 107,644 contracts from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,621,245 contracts, up 17,475 contracts from the previous trading day.Hong Kong stocks of innovative drug concepts rose in the afternoon, Lepu Biopharmaceuticals (02157.HK) rose more than 9%, Fuhong Hanlin (02696.HK) rose more than 5%, Junshi Biosciences (01877.HK), Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals (09995.HK) and other stocks followed suit.AAC Technologies (02018.HK) fell more than 10%. The companys net profit in the first half of the year increased by 63.1% year-on-year.

What is the impact of the Fed’s interest rate cut?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

What impact will the Fed's interest rate cuts bring to the global capital market? 

1) US stocks: short-term positive, but the US stocks still have adjustment pressure.  But the long-term trend of US stocks depends on the extent of the recession.

 2) US debt: support the bull market . The trend of 10-year US Treasury interest rates is basically the same as the rhythm of interest rate cuts, but will react in advance.

 3) US dollar: bearish dollar index. The main factor affecting the US dollar index is the relative strength of the US economy with other major countries, especially the Eurozone. The current cycle of the US economy lags behind other countries. In the future, as the US economy accelerates and the Eurozone enters the bottoming stage, the US dollar will have depreciation pressure, and the Fed’s expected interest rate cut will cause the US dollar to depreciate earlier.

 4) Gold: may caused the price of gold to rise, bull market can be expected. The price of gold is affected by the risk aversion and the US dollar.Also, the depreciation of the US dollar is good for gold. On the other hand, the safe-haven value of gold will be greatly reduced compared to the previous rounds of interest rate cuts. 

5) Emerging market stocks: short-term positive, long-term trend depends on economic conditions. The depreciation of the dollar will bring capital inflows to emerging markets, but the long-term trend of the stock market depends on the state of the economy.