• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Fitch: Vietnamese banks face profit margin pressure as liquidity tightens.Futures Market News, April 1st: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,351,483 lots, an increase of 372,279 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,031,325 lots, an increase of 2,417 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 213,541 lots, an increase of 43,528 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 298,303 lots, a decrease of 1,923 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 487,441 lots, an increase of 171,828 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,514,966 lots, an increase of 7,285 lots from the previous trading day.On April 1st, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) abruptly ordered a crackdown on rupee put options on Friday evening, triggering emergency liquidations in the banking sector and putting up to $30 billion in arbitrage trading under pressure. After trading resumed on Monday, the market panicked over a liquidity crunch. Sources estimated that banks liquidated between $4 billion and $10 billion in positions that day. This means that the vast majority of these positions remain to be liquidated before the April 10th deadline. Because the Indian foreign exchange market was closed for holidays on Tuesday and Wednesday, Mondays liquidation wave caused the rupee to fall to a record low of 94.80, marking the largest intraday fluctuation since 2013. This intervention by the central bank is one of the toughest measures against currency speculation in a decade. Despite Trumps signals of a possible withdrawal from Iran, the high oil prices resulting from the Iran war continue to push up Indias trade deficit and inflation. Analysts from institutions such as Wells Fargo warn that a rupee falling to 100 to the US dollar is almost a certainty. Currently, as banks are forced to buy dollars domestically to cover their short positions overseas, the onshore-offshore forward spread has surged to its highest level since 2020.April 1st - Cao Cao Mobility announced on April 1st that it has received approval from relevant regulatory authorities to become the first smart passenger vehicle company in Hangzhou to conduct road tests of driverless intelligent connected vehicles. This marks a new stage in Cao Cao Mobilitys Robotaxi operations, enabling unmanned operation.Hong Kong-listed auto stocks rallied in the afternoon, with NIO-SW (09866.HK) and Voyah (07489.HK) rising over 10%, Leapmotor (09863.HK) up over 6%, and Li Auto (02015.HK) and Geely Automobile (00175.HK) up over 3%.

What is the impact of the Fed’s interest rate cut?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

What impact will the Fed's interest rate cuts bring to the global capital market? 

1) US stocks: short-term positive, but the US stocks still have adjustment pressure.  But the long-term trend of US stocks depends on the extent of the recession.

 2) US debt: support the bull market . The trend of 10-year US Treasury interest rates is basically the same as the rhythm of interest rate cuts, but will react in advance.

 3) US dollar: bearish dollar index. The main factor affecting the US dollar index is the relative strength of the US economy with other major countries, especially the Eurozone. The current cycle of the US economy lags behind other countries. In the future, as the US economy accelerates and the Eurozone enters the bottoming stage, the US dollar will have depreciation pressure, and the Fed’s expected interest rate cut will cause the US dollar to depreciate earlier.

 4) Gold: may caused the price of gold to rise, bull market can be expected. The price of gold is affected by the risk aversion and the US dollar.Also, the depreciation of the US dollar is good for gold. On the other hand, the safe-haven value of gold will be greatly reduced compared to the previous rounds of interest rate cuts. 

5) Emerging market stocks: short-term positive, long-term trend depends on economic conditions. The depreciation of the dollar will bring capital inflows to emerging markets, but the long-term trend of the stock market depends on the state of the economy.