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A survey conducted by Kings College London on May 19th found that with the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, most British workers expect to face mass unemployment. The survey revealed that Britons perceive occupations such as plumbers as relatively safe, while entry-level white-collar jobs are seen as risky. British workers have relatively low levels of concern about the threat to their jobs. Meanwhile, one in five Britons believe that AI-induced unemployment will trigger "civil unrest."Intel (INTC.O) CEO Chen Liwu: The 14A chip will be put into production in 2028 and will enter the mass production stage in 2029.On May 19th, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated during the G7 finance ministers meeting in Paris, France, on the 18th that commercial oil inventories are "declining sharply" due to the Middle East conflict, and their lifespan is "only a few weeks." Birol said that the IEAs decision in March to coordinate member countries to utilize strategic petroleum reserves could increase market supply by approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, but these reserves are "not inexhaustible," and all parties should recognize the urgency of the situation. The IEAs latest monthly oil report, released on May 13th, showed that global observable oil inventories, including offshore crude, decreased by 250 million barrels in March and April, equivalent to a daily decrease of 4 million barrels. With the summer peak demand approaching, international oil prices may fluctuate further.On May 19th, Trump announced that his direct-to-consumer pharmacy website, TrumpRx, is expanding its list of discounted drugs, adding over 600 generic versions. Generic drugs are typically cheaper, and this expansion helps fill gaps in the websites current offerings. Speaking at the White House, Trump stated that by including this large catalog of inexpensive generic drugs on TrumpRx, consumers will now have a reliable channel to ensure they can purchase the prescription medications they need at the lowest possible price. Mark Cuban, who strongly advocates for direct-to-consumer drug sales through his company, Cost Plus Drugs, accompanied him to the event. The White House stated that discounts on generic drugs offered by Amazon Pharmacy, Cost Plus Drugs, and GoodRx will be integrated into the TrumpRx website. Its important to note that TrumpRx targets those who purchase medications with cash and do not have health insurance. Many people cannot afford prescription drugs without health insurance. Trump administration officials stated that the website still serves a purpose of transparency, allowing people to at least check for better prices.Domestic News: 1. Li Qiang, during his research visit to Beijing, emphasized the need to promote the deep integration of artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing to accelerate the cultivation and shaping of new drivers and advantages for economic development. 2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced it will further promote the deepening reform of the Beijing Stock Exchange. 3. Six departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, issued a notice on strengthening and optimizing tax refund measures for departing tourists to expand inbound consumption. 4. my countrys "Sun Chasing Project" has made significant progress, laying the foundation for building "wireless charging stations" in space. 5. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued implementation measures for capacity replacement in the steel industry, proposing that the national ratio of ironmaking and steelmaking capacity replacement should not be less than 1.5:1. 6. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 5.6% year-on-year from January to April. In April, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month. International News: 1. The UK increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds in March, while China and Japan reduced their holdings. 2. The US Treasury Secretary announced a further 30-day extension of the sanctions waiver for Russian maritime oil shipments. 3. A judge dismissed Musks lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO Altman. 4. IMF: Raises UK economic forecast, but political turmoil could impact economic growth. 5. UK Prime Minister Starmer emphasizes he will not resign, stating he still plans to participate in the next UK general election. 6. Warsh will be sworn in as Federal Reserve Chairman on Friday, with the swearing-in ceremony presided over by Trump. 7. 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If no agreement is reached, they are prepared to launch a large-scale strike against Iran. ② Sources say the US has agreed to temporarily waive oil sanctions on Iran during negotiations, but US officials deny this. ③ Iran has submitted a new 14-point negotiating text to the United States through Pakistan. Iran reportedly proposed a long-term, multi-phase ceasefire and the unconditional transfer of enriched uranium to Russia. ④ Iranian sources: The United States has shown flexibility on the issue of Iran maintaining limited nuclear activities, but has only agreed to unfreeze a quarter of Irans assets according to a phased timetable. ⑤ Trump stated that he is not considering making any concessions to Iran. ⑥ Iran disclosed details of Supreme Leader Mojtabas injury: it did not result in disfigurement or permanent disability.

Watching the foreign exchange market on October 8th: technical analysis of the euro, the pound sterling and the Australian dollar

LEO

Oct 26, 2021 10:52

Currency: EUR/USD



Resistance 2: 1.1640

Resistance 1: 1.1580

Spot price: 1.1555

Support 1: 1.1500

Support 2: 1.144

Although the market sentiment improved on Thursday, the EUR/USD trading near 1.1560 rose slightly. Following news that the US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that the debt ceiling would be increased by US$408 billion by early December, global stock markets rose. However, the improvement in market sentiment cannot offset the weakness of the euro, because the euro zone economic data is weak, and the euro/dollar remains weak. Germany announced its August industrial production, the monthly rate dropped by 4%, far below the expected value of -0.4%. The annual rate of industrial production in August was 1.7%, far lower than the expected value of 11.4%. The United States will release the number of non-agricultural jobs on Friday, and it is estimated that the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States will reach 488,000 in September. The unemployment rate was 5.1% in the future and 5.2% in the previous period. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows that the euro/dollar still has a downside risk. The EUR/USD is far below all moving averages, and these moving averages maintain a firm bearish tendency. At the same time, the technical indicators consolidate in the negative zone. The 4-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD is still below the bearish 20 moving average, which is currently raising resistance near 1.1580. The momentum indicator is consolidating in the negative zone, but the relative strength indicator is close to oversold. EUR/USD needs to break through at least the 1.1640 price zone to attract bulls.

Currency: GBP/USD



Resistance 2: 1.3728

Resistance 1: 1.3645

Spot price: 1.3618

Support 1: 1.3525

Support 2: 1.3435

The currency pair faced selling pressure again on Wednesday and ended its four-day rise to a weekly high of about 1.3650. The combination of a series of factors has helped the dollar gain strong follow-up traction, which is regarded as a key factor that exerts heavy pressure on the pound against the dollar. The market expects that the Fed will begin to withdraw its stimulus measures during the large-scale epidemic as early as November. Market expectations continue to increase and the U.S. dollar will continue to gain support from them. Fearing that the continued surge in energy prices will trigger inflation, the market seems to have begun to digest the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2022. In addition, the Evergrande crisis and the deadlock in the US debt ceiling have triggered a new round of global safe-haven transactions. This, coupled with the strong rise in U.S. Treasury yields, continued to provide a boost to the safe-haven dollar and prompted a new round of selling in the pound to dollar exchange rate. Britain and France are once again nervous about fishing rights after Brexit, which further drags down the pound. In the latest development, French Finance Minister Le Maire stated that France will formulate an action plan for the UK and fisheries on October 15. In addition, the continuing fuel crisis in the UK has further weakened the pound. The 1.3645 resistance position at the top is now more critical. If it can break through the rebound and upward space, it will be further expanded. On the contrary, the pound's decline will be difficult to change. The lower support is at 1.3525, which was the support line earlier this week. It is closely followed by the previous week's cornerstone of 1.3435, and then the 2021 low of 1.34.

Currency: AUD/USD



Resistance level 2: 0.7400

Resistance 1: 0.7330

Spot price: 0.7322

Support 1: 0.7266

Support 2: 0.7200

The Australian dollar benefited from market risk appetite, and the AUD/USD surged to 0.7323, a three-week high. Before the Asian market opened on Friday, the AUD/USD continued to rise, trading around 0.7310. Despite the lukewarm Australian data released this morning, the global stock index is positive, boosting the AUD/USD. The September AIG Service Industry Performance Index recorded 45.7, slightly better than the previous value of 45.6, but it is still in a contraction zone. On Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release a financial stability review report, while the United States will release monthly employment data. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that if the employment data is good, it may be enough to persuade him to reduce the amount of allowances, so the non-agricultural employment data will affect the Fed's prospects for reducing the amount of allowances. At the same time, it will have a greater impact on the currency pair. The AUD/USD has reached the 50% retracement of the daily decline and may continue its upward trend in the short term. The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD successfully broke through the 20 moving average. The same technical indicators hold steady upwards and are in the positive zone. If the AUD/USD breaks through the 0.7330 area, the support exchange rate will rise further, with the target aiming at 0.74-0.7480. The short-term 4-hour chart shows that despite the limited momentum of AUD/USD, the exchange rate risk is on the upside, and the support at 0.72 below is relatively strong.

These are personal views only, and do not represent the views of the institution where they belong.

Source: Bank of China's official website, Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang, original title: "Foreign Exchange Market Watch October 8, 2021"