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On April 9th, Ren Hongbin, Chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), met with a delegation led by Dhanin Chearavanont, Senior Chairman of Thailands Charoen Pokphand Group, and Chairman Chearavanont in Beijing on April 8th. The two sides exchanged in-depth views on topics such as serving the development of foreign-invested enterprises in China, promoting the integration of China-Thailand industrial and supply chains, and expanding collaboration in green energy and digital technologies.On April 9, local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, held talks with DPRK Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui at the Kumsusan Guesthouse in Pyongyang. Wang Yi stated that the past year has seen numerous highlights in China-DPRK exchanges, powerfully demonstrating that the traditional friendship forged in blood between the two countries is unwavering and unbreakable. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between China and the DPRK. For 65 years, regardless of changes in the international and regional situation, China and the DPRK, as good neighbors, good friends, and good comrades, have always trusted and supported each other, making unremitting efforts to maintain regional and global peace and stability and promote their respective development. China is willing to work with the DPRK to successfully organize commemorative activities for the 65th anniversary of the treatys signing, strengthen high-level exchanges, enhance dialogue and pragmatic cooperation at all levels and in all fields, deepen cultural exchanges, promote mutual understanding, and contribute to each others economic and social development.April 9th - Data from the U.S. Commerce Department shows that U.S. consumer spending barely increased in February amid persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the ongoing inflationary situation is expected to worsen further due to the Iran war. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.1% from January. The core PCE index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% from January, while the Federal Reserves preferred core PCE price index recorded an annualized rate of 3.0%.On April 9th, data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 16,000 in the week ending April 4th, reaching a seasonally adjusted 219,000. Economists had previously expected 210,000. The low number of layoffs is providing support to the labor market, and there are currently no signs that employers are laying off workers due to the oil price shock caused by the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. The labor market is in what economists call a "low hiring, low laying" situation, which they attribute to the uncertainty caused by Trumps import tariffs and large-scale deportations. Although non-farm payrolls rebounded by 178,000 in March, the average length of time unemployed reached 11.4 weeks, the longest in nearly four and a half years. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.794 million, but this may be because people have exhausted their unemployment benefits, with most states limiting claims to 26 weeks.The final reading for U.S. corporate earnings in the fourth quarter was 5.7% annualized, compared to 4.7% previously.

Warmer Weather Forecasts Lowered Natural Gas Prices 7%

Skylar Williams

Jan 11, 2023 10:54

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New forecasts for a mild winter sent natural gas prices back to the mid-$3 area.


The February gas contract on the Henry Hub of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $3.639 per mmBtu on Tuesday, down 27 cents, or 7%.


The drop follows Monday's 11% and 5.4% gas hikes. The benchmark gas contract is down 2% week-to-date and 52% in the past three weeks.


Gelber & Associates, a Houston-based energy markets consultancy, claimed market bears are selling NYMEX front-month natural gas contracts. "Sellers have regained control, driving prices to the low $3.30s/mmBtu as market players predict unseasonably high temperatures in the U.S.


Natural gas contracts fell precipitously in December after rising rapidly for much of 2022 due to weather extremes and a supply bottleneck caused by political and other barriers to Russian gas output after the Ukraine incursion. Unexpectedly mild winter temperatures have left European and American heating markets well-stocked.


According to the Gelber research, extremely mild temperatures through mid-January could lead to further gas price drops.


According to the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) models, the near-term temperature picture is bleak for mid-January, with daily gas storage withdrawals likely to be below the five-year average for two weeks.


The stoppage of the Freeport liquefaction facility in Texas has also reduced LNG exports by 2 bcf per day.


"For gas market bulls, colder weather in Europe would be beneficial," Gelber said. Similar to the U.S., European temperatures have been unusually warm since December.


Compared to $80-$100 per mmBtu last summer, European gas prices at the TTF point in the Netherlands are $21-$24.


"It's not out of the question that NYMEX gas futures may return to $5 [per mmBtu] or higher in the near future," Gelber wrote, "but it will require enormous amounts of Arctic air to dominate the nation for several weeks." Any weather forecast model regressions toward a lengthier period of warmth would send NYMEX gas futures to new lows.