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New York gold futures extended gains to 1.00% on the day, currently trading at $4,955.50 per ounce.According to futures news on February 18th, as of the week ending February 14th, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 364,589 kiloliters from the previous week to 9,712,459 kiloliters. Japanese gasoline inventories increased by 82,325 kiloliters from the previous week to 1,706,551 kiloliters. Japanese kerosene inventories decreased by 177,598 kiloliters from the previous week to 1,455,421 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 89.0%, compared to 89.2% the previous week.February 18th - According to data from Maoyan Professional Edition, the total box office of new films released during the 2026 Spring Festival has exceeded 1.7 billion yuan. "Pegasus 3", "Silent Assassination", and "Boonie Bears: The Big Adventure" are currently ranked as the top three films in the Spring Festival box office chart.On February 18th, Goldman Sachs economists stated in a report that the Reserve Bank of New Zealands monetary policy statement, particularly its forward guidance, was more dovish than expected. While the market had already factored in a 40 basis point increase in the official cash rate by 2026, the central bank indicated that policy settings are likely to remain accommodative for some time. Economists noted that the RBA conveyed confidence that inflation will fall back to the mid-2% range over the next 12 months, but also warned of the recent unexpected rise in overall inflation. Given the large amount of spare capacity in the economy, Goldman Sachs expects a strong economic recovery while inflationary pressures will remain moderate. They stated, "We believe the RBAs statement today is consistent with the view that the banks first rate hike will be postponed to the fourth quarter of 2026."New York gold futures touched $4,950 per ounce, up 0.90% on the day.

Next Year's Increased Oil Demand Will Drive Higher Prices

Haiden Holmes

Jan 11, 2023 10:51

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As the U.S. government anticipated record global petroleum consumption for the coming year, the dollar remained near its lowest level in seven months.


In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that the global consumption of liquid fuels would reach 102,2 million barrels per day in 2024, primarily due to the economic growth of India and China.


Brent futures closed at $80.10 per barrel, an increase of 45 cents or 0.6%, and U.S. crude futures settled at $75.12 per barrel, an increase of 49 cents or 0.6%.


After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from commenting on monetary policy and the economy during a symposium, the markets awaited clarity regarding the Federal Reserve's plans to increase interest rates. Thursday's U.S. CPI data will provide traders with insight into the near-term possibilities.


According to Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, Thursday's data "may easily determine the course of the financial and oil markets for the next several weeks."


Varga remarked that the currency would weaken if inflation came in lower than anticipated or the November level.


The dollar remained near its lowest level in seven months. As items denominated in dollars become more affordable for holders of other currencies, a declining dollar could enhance the demand for oil.


Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned that the U.S. central bank will need to further boost interest rates to combat high inflation, which will likely have a negative impact on the labor market.


After China, the world's largest oil importer and second-largest consumer, reopened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years, both WTI and Brent climbed 1% on Monday.


China also approved a second batch of crude import limits for 2023, bringing the total for this year up by 20% compared to the previous year.


Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, commented, "Crude is attempting to establish a bottom now that China has loosened most of its restrictions on international travel and business."


As the global economy exerts downward pressure on oil prices, many analysts predict that a resurgence in Chinese demand will only give limited assistance.


"Because the consumption upswing is still in its infancy, oil prices are likely to remain low and range-bound," according to analysts at Haitong Futures.


Barclays (LON:BARC) bank highlighted a $15-25 per barrel downside to its $98 per barrel Brent projection for 2023 if a "recession in global industrial activity similar to 2009-09 arises."


Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) forecasts that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) enhanced capacity to increase prices without negatively influencing demand will limit downside risks to its positive oil forecast for 2023.


Separately, oil stockpiles rose by around 14.9 million barrels during the week ending January 6, according to market sources citing data issued Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute. It was anticipated to decline by 2.24 million. EIA data is due Wednesday. [EIA/S]


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