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On January 16th, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League, and the China State Railway Group jointly issued a "Notice on Launching the Double Benefit Action for College Graduates Seeking Employment in Different Locations," providing preferential train ticket policies for 2026 graduates seeking employment in different locations, further optimizing convenient services such as discounted accommodation at "Youth Stations," and helping college graduates find employment smoothly and as early as possible. The "Notice" clarifies that 2026 graduates seeking employment across regions will have two additional opportunities to purchase discounted one-way student tickets. The "Notice" requires a steady and orderly expansion of the coverage of "Youth Stations." The "Notice" points out the need to continuously optimize employment service support, extend the employment tracking service chain, and provide precise services such as employment information inquiries and job-seeking skills training for graduates staying at "Youth Stations." It encourages eligible localities to provide preferential treatment in transportation, communication, cultural tourism, and catering to graduates staying at "Youth Stations," and to conduct dynamic job-seeking tracking services for 3 to 6 months.On January 16, President Xi Jinping met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was on an official visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping put forward four points regarding China-Canada relations: First, to be partners of mutual respect; second, to be partners of common development. The essence of China-Canada economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win, with both sides benefiting from cooperation. Both sides should increase cooperation and decrease the negative list, continuously strengthening the bond of common interests through deeper and broader cooperation. Third, to be partners of mutual trust. People-to-people connectivity is the most fundamental, solid, and lasting form of connectivity. Both sides should encourage exchanges and cooperation among all sectors of education, culture, tourism, sports, and local governments, facilitating personnel exchanges and building a solid foundation of public opinion. Fourth, to be partners of mutual cooperation. China is willing to strengthen communication and coordination with Canada within the frameworks of the United Nations, the G20, and APEC to jointly address global challenges. Following the meeting, the two sides issued a Joint Statement of the Meeting between the Leaders of China and Canada.On January 16th, the U.S. Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, sparking concerns among central banks worldwide about the cascading risks to the Feds independence. This not only concerns the direction of U.S. monetary policy but also directly threatens a key crisis tool of the global financial system—currency swap agreements. Swap agreements are the core mechanism by which the Fed provides dollar liquidity to other central banks during crises, playing a vital role as a "financial lifeline" multiple times, from the global financial crisis to the pandemic. However, the Trump administrations pressure on central banks has raised concerns that such tools may be politicized. Last year, European officials discussed alternative solutions, reflecting global vigilance against the potential weaponization of reliance on dollar liquidity. Analysts point out that if the U.S. ties swap agreements to geopolitical interests, global crisis response capabilities will face severe challenges.On January 16th, Futures News reported that, boosted by the recent rebound in international crude oil prices and rising shipment transaction prices, Sinopec Northeasts centralized procurement prices followed suit. The latest centralized procurement prices show that the transaction price for 92# gasoline is 7030 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the transaction price for 0#/-10# gasoline is 5780 yuan/ton, also an increase of 30 yuan/ton; and the transaction price for -35# gasoline is 5880 yuan/ton. Gasoline demand is expected to improve marginally in the later period, with the peak season for returning home by car still providing support for gasoline fundamentals. Diesel demand remains weak, pressured by declining crude oil prices, and downstream enthusiasm for entering the market is weak at higher prices, suggesting that diesel prices still face downward pressure.According to Zhuochuang Information, on January 16th, new export orders for MTBE in China reached 149,000 tons this week, an increase of 129,000 tons, or 645%, compared to last week. Amid escalating concerns about the Middle East situation, crude oil prices rose continuously this week, leading to increased overseas purchasing intentions. The negotiation atmosphere for domestic MTBE export orders improved significantly, and prices also shifted upwards. During this period, domestic MTBE export orders were traded at prices between $620 and $642 per ton, with delivery dates from mid-February to mid-to-late March.

WTI optimists target the $70 mark amidst positive banking sector developments

Daniel Rogers

Mar 27, 2023 14:33

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The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is approaching the $70 threshold as investors become less concerned about ongoing banking difficulties. Major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US Treasury Department, have bolstered confidence through swift actions. Consequently, risk appetite remains robust. As a result of this positive development, oil prices have risen above $67.

 

Oil markets are intently observing financial market sentiment, while oil fundamentals are largely ignored. The oil market has been reflecting the volatility of the financial markets over the past few days.

 

The pullback from $67 is likely due to the weakening of the US dollar, and for the oil price to break sustainably above $70, a significant fundamental driver, such as the complete resolution of the banking crisis, will be required.

 

The demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency is restrained by some reassuring comments from U.S. officials.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin's statements that he will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, thereby escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe over Ukraine, have also supported oil prices. Clearly, further escalation on the Russia-Ukraine front will result in higher oil prices. Although NATO and the United States have condemned the move and deemed it "dangerous and irresponsible," it continues.

 

Russia's strategic decision to reduce oil production can be ascribed to the fact that the country's hydrocarbon stockpiles have been rising since September of last year, and it would likely want to avoid further stock builds. If Russia wishes to reduce its stockpiles, it may be necessary to prolong production limits beyond June.

 

Oil prices have not reached the levels anticipated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries despite a significant amount of activity on the fundamental front of oil. (OPEC). Prior to the resolution of the banking turmoil, oil prices will likely be influenced by risk sentiment. In order to make informed decisions as various factors continue to impact the global economy, investors and market participants will keep a close watch on developments in the financial and oil markets, as well as geopolitical tensions.