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Real-time News
Samsung Electronics: The semiconductor market is expected to remain strong due to continued investment momentum in artificial intelligence in the fourth quarter.On October 30th, a research report from CICC stated that under the "natural scenario," their calculations indicate the Federal Reserve still has room for three more rate cuts in this round, corresponding to long-term interest rates of 3.8% to 4.0%. Currently, the difference between the US real interest rate and the natural interest rate is 0.8%. Three more rate cuts of 25 basis points each would bring financing costs and investment returns "even," corresponding to a nominal neutral interest rate of 3.5%. Assuming a term premium of 30-50 basis points, this corresponds to a 10-year US Treasury yield of 3.8% to 4.0%. The short-term rate cut path will depend more on the government shutdown and data, such as when the shutdown will be resolved to release new employment data. The subsequent path will also be influenced by inflation trends. In contrast, the new Fed chairman and the Feds independence are the biggest variables in the rate cut path next year, potentially increasing policy uncertainty after the second quarter of 2026.Samsung Electronics: Third-quarter revenue was 86 trillion won (companys estimate was 86 trillion won); third-quarter operating profit was 12.2 trillion won (companys estimate was 12.1 trillion won), with mobile business operating profit at 3.6 trillion won and chip business operating profit at 7 trillion won.On October 30th, CICC believes that while the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at its October meeting, Powells comments were clearly hawkish, suggesting that a December rate cut is not a certainty. This indicates that the view within the Fed that it should pause rate cuts is gaining ground. Looking ahead, although the Fed still has some room for easing, the pace of rate cuts may slow, and overly optimistic expectations should be avoided. Furthermore, the stimulative effect of this round of rate cuts may be weaker than in previous cycles, partly due to a significant reduction in the "refinancing effect." The Fed also announced that it will end quantitative tightening (QT) in December, which we believe is more of a technical consideration and should not be over-interpreted; with significant room for further reductions in policy rates, the need to purchase unconventional financial assets is not significant.Hyundai Motors stock price surged 11% to 287,500 won.
