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On March 31, the yen fell to its lowest level since July 2024 on Monday, prompting Japans top foreign exchange official, Jun Mimura, to warn that authorities might take decisive action in the foreign exchange market if the current situation persists. This followed similar comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on March 27 when the exchange rate closed above 160. According to data from the CME Groups central restricted order book, the most actively traded May put options saw more than three times the volume of the most actively traded call options on Monday. Mukund Daga, global head of foreign exchange options at Barclays in London, said, "Hedge funds have shown some interest in USD/JPY options as a way to hedge against potential intervention that could lead to a sharp decline in the exchange rate." He noted that trading activity was concentrated in the short-term structure, "which suggests that the market is focused on near-term event risks rather than a broad directional shift."March 31 – The "Measures for the Exchange of Damaged and Defaced Renminbi" issued by the Peoples Bank of China officially came into effect today. These measures, for the first time, systematically clarify the criteria for defining damaged and defaced Renminbi, clearly delineate the boundaries between convertible and non-convertible banknotes, and further detail the exchange procedures. Exchange services will be handled free of charge by financial institutions designated by branches of the Peoples Bank of China.The main Shanghai silver futures contract rose by more than 5% intraday, currently trading at 18,469 yuan per kilogram.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the composite PMI output index was 50.5% in March, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month and above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises is improving.The most active Shanghai silver futures contract surged 4% intraday, currently trading at 18,230 yuan/kg. The most active Shanghai gold futures contract rose over 2% intraday, currently trading at 1,025.84 yuan/gram.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: To consolidate as a doji near the YTD highs near 125.70 looms

Larissa Barlow

Apr 13, 2022 10:03

  • Despite its strong association with US Treasury yields, the USD/JPY trades in a range of 125.30 to 70.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY exchange price: Although the bias remains upward, a doji near the year-to-date highs might pave the way for lower prices.

 

As the Asian Pacific day begins, USD/JPY is practically flat, up 0.05 percent, but still short of the YTD highs near 125.77, as Tuesday's price action formed a doji, implying indecision. The USD/JPY is now trading at 125.48.

 

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY hovered above 125.45 but fell rapidly on the release of mixed US inflation readings, albeit hotter than expected; the numbers were in line with forecasts.

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Price

The USD/JPY is now trending upward, as indicated by the daily chart. A doji near the YTD highs, on the other hand, may pave the way for a correction down.

 

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart indicates the pair has established a double top, but the pair may stabilize in the 125.30-77 range after breaking over 125.35.

 

The initial upward resistance for the USD/JPY would be 125.56. A break of the latter would reveal the convergence of the YTD high and the R1 daily pivot point near 125.77-80. Once cleared, 126.00 would be the next line of defense for JPY bulls.

 

On the other hand, the initial level of support for the USD/JPY would be the confluence of the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the daily pivot at 125.28-30. A strong break would pave the way to the S1 daily pivot level of 124.81, followed by the 100-hour SMA level of 124.64.

 

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