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Israel Defense Forces: The Israel Defense Forces recently launched a new round of strikes against Iranian regime targets in Tehran.According to the China Cotton Information Centers weekly report on the Chinese cotton market on April 6th, the following points were observed: 1. Price Dynamics: The average settlement price of the Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract for the week of March 30th-April 3rd was 15,331 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week. The average settlement price of the New York cotton futures main contract was 70.47 cents/lb, up 2.10 cents/lb from the previous week, a rise of 3.1%. Domestic cotton prices were 3,244 yuan/ton higher than international cotton prices, with the price difference narrowing by 382 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The average market price of domestic C32S carded yarn was 22,285 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.4%. 2. Macroeconomic Situation: The escalating situation in the Middle East exacerbated concerns about global stagflation, with New York crude oil futures breaking $110 for the first time in four years. A report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development showed that the average daily ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by 95% month-on-month in March. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory in March to 50.4%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity. 3. Supply and Demand Situation: The International Cotton Advisory Committees April report increased its global cotton production forecast for 2026/27 by 100,000 tons to 24.9 million tons. The USDAs intended cotton planting area in March was 9.64 million acres, a 3.9% year-on-year increase, but drought conditions currently affect 90% of major producing areas. As of April 2nd, the national cotton sales rate was 81.3%, a 16.7 percentage point increase year-on-year. New orders for downstream textile companies have weakened slightly, and some companies have seen a decline in operating rates. 4. Market Outlook: The expectation of tight supply in the new year and domestic policies to expand domestic demand provide strong support for the domestic cotton market. It is expected to continue its range-bound trading pattern in the near term, requiring close monitoring of spring planting weather in the Northern Hemisphere and factors such as the US-China trade negotiations.On April 6th, the ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office released its annual report, "ASEAN Plus Three Regional Economic Outlook 2026." The report projects that the ASEAN Plus Three region will grow by 4.0% in both 2026 and 2027. However, the report also points out that the escalating conflict in the Middle East and significant disruptions to global energy supplies have increased the downside risks to the regions economic outlook. The report shows that the regions economic growth is projected to reach 4.3% in 2025, higher than previously expected. Demand for semiconductors driven by artificial intelligence is a key driver of export growth.Japans Topix index rose 1% on the day.On April 6, local time, Iran claimed that it launched three rounds of missiles at Israeli territory within 20 minutes. Israel stated that Iran launched at least 10 missiles carrying cluster warheads in the three rounds of attacks.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: To consolidate as a doji near the YTD highs near 125.70 looms

Larissa Barlow

Apr 13, 2022 10:03

  • Despite its strong association with US Treasury yields, the USD/JPY trades in a range of 125.30 to 70.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY exchange price: Although the bias remains upward, a doji near the year-to-date highs might pave the way for lower prices.

 

As the Asian Pacific day begins, USD/JPY is practically flat, up 0.05 percent, but still short of the YTD highs near 125.77, as Tuesday's price action formed a doji, implying indecision. The USD/JPY is now trading at 125.48.

 

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY hovered above 125.45 but fell rapidly on the release of mixed US inflation readings, albeit hotter than expected; the numbers were in line with forecasts.

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Price

The USD/JPY is now trending upward, as indicated by the daily chart. A doji near the YTD highs, on the other hand, may pave the way for a correction down.

 

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart indicates the pair has established a double top, but the pair may stabilize in the 125.30-77 range after breaking over 125.35.

 

The initial upward resistance for the USD/JPY would be 125.56. A break of the latter would reveal the convergence of the YTD high and the R1 daily pivot point near 125.77-80. Once cleared, 126.00 would be the next line of defense for JPY bulls.

 

On the other hand, the initial level of support for the USD/JPY would be the confluence of the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the daily pivot at 125.28-30. A strong break would pave the way to the S1 daily pivot level of 124.81, followed by the 100-hour SMA level of 124.64.

 

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