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On October 5th, Poland officially extended temporary border controls with Germany and Lithuania for six months, with the measures set to last until April 4, 2026. According to Polish media reports, Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kelwinski signed the decree on the 1st. At a press conference following the Munich Migration Conference in Germany on the 4th, he stated that Poland was unwilling to agree to any regulations regarding the resettlement of migrants within the EU. Poland has paid a high price for guarding the EUs external borders, with nearly 25,000 illegal crossings occurring on the Polish-Belarusian border this year. To curb illegal immigration, the Polish government implemented temporary controls on its western borders with Germany and northeastern borders with Lithuania for 30 days starting on July 7th, and later extended them until October 4th. Currently, Poland has 50 checkpoints on the Polish-German border and 13 on the Polish-Lithuanian border.On October 5th, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on a Russian media program that if the United States provides Ukraine with long-range and precision strike weapons and equipment, including Tomahawk missiles, it will destroy the positive momentum that has emerged in Russian-US relations. When asked whether he expects European leaders to pay attention to the signals he recently sent at the annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Putin also stated that he never aims to please others, but only states the facts truthfully, and that subsequent developments depend on the positions of those he addresses.On October 5th, local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Cairo Agreement can no longer serve as the basis for Irans cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and that Iran will announce new cooperation arrangements with the agency. Araghchi said, "New decisions must be made under the current circumstances. In my opinion, the Cairo Agreement is no longer applicable to the status quo." Araghchi emphasized that practice has proven that there is no alternative to diplomacy and negotiation in addressing Irans nuclear program.On October 5th, OPEC+ representatives stated that the group was close to reaching a principle agreement on another small production increase in November, continuing its efforts to regain market share in the global oil market. Delegates revealed ahead of a Sunday video conference that major member countries were expected to approve a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day, the same as the planned increase this month. Oil prices traded near a four-year low on Friday, a reminder that OPEC and its allies must strike a careful balance when restoring previously suspended production to an oversupplied market.Sources said that before the meeting, OPEC+ countries had reached an agreement in principle to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November.

USD / JPY Strikes Above 136.20 As Fed Rate Increase Worries Return

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 16:07

 

 

The USD / JPY pair is battling in the Asian session to maintain its auction above 136.40, while the downside looks to be supported around 136.00. The asset is expected to continue rising and surpass the 136.40 resistance mark as investors foresee the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates to strengthen its defense against persistent inflation.

 

Following a down day on Wednesday, S&P500 futures recorded modest gains during the Asian session, signaling a minor improvement in investors' risk appetite. Despite this, the market as a whole is very risk adverse. The spread of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to narrow after a period of chaotic swings.

 

It indicates that the Federal Reserve's (Fed) officials' hawkish stance has revived US Treasury prices.

 

Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, predicted that the central bank would increase the terminal rate to a level of 5.00% to 5.25% in view of the Consumer Price Index's (CPI) enduring nature. The Fed policymaker also thinks the central bank will continue to have a high final rate after 2023. Additionally, Fed Chief Jerome Powell has reaffirmed that an early rate cut could have disastrous consequences for the inflation scenario.

 

It is clear that a future rise in the price index is expected after Wednesday's release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The New Orders Index and Manufacturers' Prices Paid were able to show that the inflation scenario is getting more complicated despite the February PMI figures' failure to wow the market. Figures increased to 47.0 from 43.7 anticipated and 42.5 earlier published, indicating a strong order book. The Manufacturing Price Paid increased to 51.3 from 45.0, as opposed to the average forecast of 45.0, and from 44.5 in the previous report, suggesting that the Producer Price Index (PPI) may soon show a surprise increase.

 

On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen is being impacted by a string of dovish remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials. Following dovish remarks from BoJ Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda and BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, board member Junko Nakagawa also considered the present monetary policy appropriate. "An expansionary strategy is absolutely essential for maintaining the economy and increasing earnings," he said.


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