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According to Axios: The Saudi Defense Minister expressed support for de-escalation of the situation.Market news: SpaceX (SPCX.O) has been awarded a $1.6 billion contract by the U.S. Space Force to carry out 18 Falcon 9 launches to launch military guided satellites.On July 30th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that since the June meeting, financial markets have already priced in most of the effects of the Feds tightening policy, therefore he does not agree with describing the decision to maintain interest rates as a "pause." Warsh said, "I wouldnt call todays decision a pause in any sense. If you have to label it a pause, then the performance of the financial markets shows the opposite." Since the Feds mid-June policy meeting, the yields on both 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds have risen by approximately 20 basis points. Warsh pointed out that during this period, financial markets did not "pause" their adjustments, but rather continuously repriced based on inflation data and economic growth performance: on the one hand, inflation data influenced market expectations; on the other hand, strong economic growth pushed both nominal and real interest rates higher. He stated, "Today, the Fed did not explicitly adjust the policy rate, thats true. But I think this is just the beginning of the whole policy story, not the end."Canadas Minister for Trade to the United States said he held comprehensive talks with U.S. Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to maintain close contact.On July 30th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh told reporters that he does not believe there is a general "conflict" between the central banks dual mandate—maximum employment and price stability. "My judgment is that when we fulfill our mandate, we will achieve both goals simultaneously," Warsh said, adding that there is no either-or choice regarding inflation and employment. "Neither part of our mission has been forgotten," he said, noting that what is truly damaging the markets is the problem of high and volatile inflation.

The world's largest independent crude oil trader: oil prices still need to look at OPEC+'s face in the next few months

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

Mike Muller, Asia director of Vitol Group, the world's largest independent crude oil trader, said that in the coming months, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will continue to be the main factor in oil price fluctuations, and pricing control is largely in the hands of OPEC+. . In the United States, if you need additional oil, then your production simply cannot keep up with the number of rigs.

Compared with three years ago, this is a considerable change. At that time, due to the second shale oil boom, the United States became the world's largest oil producer, which was considered to be the main factor in the rise of oil prices.

On Monday (October 4) OPEC+ agreed to maintain the current gradual increase in production plan. At the ministerial meeting that day, OPEC+ member states agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from November. OPEC+ is still in progress at 580 10,000 barrels per day of production reduction measures, but plans to gradually withdraw the production reduction agreement by April 2022 through increased production. The news of maintaining the existing production increase plan boosted oil prices on Monday. U.S. crude oil hit a new high since November 2014, and Brent crude oil hit a new high since October 2018.

Some analysts said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is unlikely to acquiesce in requesting more production and lower prices, not only because it benefits from higher prices, but also because some member states cannot increase their production capacity and they do not This oil supply is stored to maintain a higher supply.

Stephen Brennock of the oil broker PVM said on Friday that the outlook for oil prices in the near term is still supportive. The current price trend is a recovery, and only people with strong financial resources will short oil.

If winters in the northern hemisphere are as cold as expected, this dynamic in the oil market may last longer. As Europe’s natural gas reserves are below the 5-year average, despite the bleak long-term outlook, oil demand is likely to remain strong for a long time. This means that OPEC+ will continue to issue orders under the leadership of the member states with the most spare capacity.

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