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On September 17th, Robert Sorkin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, stated that the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled that the Fed could implement three rate hikes, or even more if necessary, with just a slight push. This rate hike was hawkish, signaling another rate hike this year. Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted forecasts, eight expect three rate hikes in this cycle by the end of 2027. In a report, Sorkin noted that Fed Chairman Warshs mention of the Fed "withdrawing some easing measures" suggested that he and other participants viewed Wednesdays action as merely a small step towards tightening financial conditions, implying further action is possible. Sorkin added that the risk of further Fed rate hikes remains high if inflation continues to be high.On September 17th, Futures News reported that Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated in his concluding remarks that it is essential to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and the requirements of Premier Li Qiangs speech, and to earnestly enhance the sense of urgency, responsibility, and mission in developing advanced manufacturing. He emphasized the need to focus on key areas and crucial aspects, deeply implement the high-quality development action plan for key industrial chains, vigorously develop next-generation intelligent manufacturing, accelerate the upgrading and integrated development of the industrial system, and solidly promote the implementation of various tasks. He also stressed the importance of better leveraging the role of market mechanisms, accelerating the construction of a high-quality standard system, continuously rectifying disorderly and irrational competition, actively helping enterprises solve practical difficulties, and striving to create a favorable ecosystem for the development of advanced manufacturing.On September 17, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the evening of the 16th, saying that Pakistan summoned the Chargé dAffaires ad interim of the Indian High Commission in Pakistan that day to lodge a strong protest against the "highly provocative and unacceptable behavior" taken by an Indian Navy vessel in Pakistans Exclusive Economic Zone on the 15th. The statement said that during the Pakistani Navys biennial routine exercises, the Indian warship took provocative actions at extremely close range towards a Pakistani warship, resulting in a contact between the two vessels. This action seriously violated the relevant agreements signed by both sides and could escalate regional tensions. The statement urged India to strictly abide by international law and bilateral agreements, especially those aimed at preventing maritime conflicts. The Chargé dAffaires ad interim of the Pakistani High Commission in India will lodge the same protest with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: No comment on the Bank of Japans policy.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: The Bank of Japan is expected to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy in order to achieve the 2% price target.

The global energy shortage continues to ferment, and U.S. oil hits another seven-year high, approaching the 80 mark

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

On Tuesday (October 5), oil prices continued their upward trend. U.S. oil rose by 1.46 US dollars in late trading to close at 79.08 US dollars per barrel; cloth oil rose by 1.38 US dollars to close at 82.64 US dollars per barrel; intraday hit a three-year high of 83.13 US dollars. Point; the day before OPEC+ decided to maintain its supply agreement, rather than further increase production, at the same time due to global supply shortages, the closing price of US natural gas futures jumped to a 12-year high.

OPEC+, formed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the oil-producing allies headed by Russia, insists on the current production increase plan, rather than further increasing production. At the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia and its partners chose to moderately increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in November, at least until April 2022, and gradually cancel the existing cut of 5.8 million barrels per day. Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said that the market is aware that there will be a shortage in the next few months, and OPEC seems to be satisfied with this situation.

Oil prices have soared by more than 50% this year. This rise has increased inflationary pressures. Crude oil-consuming countries such as the United States and India are worried that this will undermine the recovery from the epidemic. A source said before Monday’s meeting that despite the pressure to increase production, OPEC+ is worried that the fourth wave of the global new crown epidemic may hit the demand recovery.

US natural gas futures prices jumped to a 12-year high on Tuesday, as global supply shortages exacerbated concerns about insufficient supply in the US before the winter in the northern hemisphere. Gary Cunningham, head of market research at Tradition Energy, said that the surge in global natural gas prices may stimulate some power plants to switch from natural gas to oil, which means that crude oil prices may continue to be supported, although there may be a short-term correction. I think there will be some profit-taking...but we will usher in a winter when natural gas prices are very high. It is estimated that the price of Brent crude oil will be around US$80 and that of US crude oil will be around US$70.

Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc., said that there is no room for error in the system, and if there is a cold winter, prices may rise sharply.

According to data released by the American Petroleum Institute earlier, as of the week of October 1, crude oil inventories increased by 951,000 barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.68 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 345,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 2 million barrels. After the data was released, the response to oil prices was flat, with U.S. oil remaining above $79. Investors will pay attention to the crude oil inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday to find further directions.

(4 hours chart of US Oil)

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