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November 22 - At the Peak Aviation Global Technology Day held on November 22, it was learned that Peak Aviation has accumulated 2,000 eVTOL commercial orders, of which 300 are confirmed orders by the end of 2025.On November 22, ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management issued an announcement regarding changes in senior management, stating that Yang Fan will serve as the companys General Manager effective November 21, 2025, and Zhang Hua will serve as the companys Deputy General Manager effective November 21, 2025. The announcement stated that the aforementioned changes were reviewed and approved by the 5th meeting of the Board of Directors of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co., Ltd. in 2025, and have been filed with regulatory authorities as required.November 22nd - Since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office, market enthusiasm has rapidly subsided. In the past week, the market capitalization of Tokyo-listed stocks evaporated by approximately $127 billion, the yen continued to weaken, and Japanese bond yields soared. Even more unsettling for the market is the rapidly decreasing likelihood of a short-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Interest rate swap market data shows that the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December has surged from about 30% before Takaichis election victory in early October to 80%. Rodrigo, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank, stated, "The market has become numb to verbal intervention from Japanese officials. The yen is becoming a toy in the hands of speculators." George, global head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, even warned that Takaichis spending plans could trigger disorderly capital flight. Meanwhile, Idana, an investment manager at First Eagle, frankly stated, "Considering tariffs and the current situation, the Japanese economy is actually performing well; now may not be the time to significantly increase fiscal stimulus."On November 22nd, Nick Timiraos, a well-known voice within the Federal Reserve, wrote that Trump stated this week that he expects interest rates to fall significantly after appointing a new Fed chairman next May. However, internal opposition to a December rate cut is growing, meaning his wish may be difficult to fulfill. Whether Powell chooses to hold rates steady or cut rates in December, he faces the most severe internal resistance in his nearly eight-year term. This division could extend into next year, meaning that even a change of chairman does not guarantee more rate cuts. Some worry that if Trump fails to achieve his goal, he may resort to more aggressive measures to weaken the central banks independence in exchange for rate cuts. For over 30 years, Fed chairs have sought the broadest possible consensus on interest rate decisions, with no decision passed by a narrow majority. But the December meeting is highly likely to see three or more dissenting votes. Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha stated, "We are witnessing a breakdown in the decision-making process, and next year we may see a serious split within the committee. (December) feels like a preview of 2026." This suggests an unprecedented prospect: monetary policy outcomes may be decided by a very rare, narrow majority (rather than the long-standing tradition of pursuing broad consensus), and the new chairman appointed by Trump may not be able to control the situation every time.US Vice President Vance: Any peace plan between Russia and Ukraine should minimize the possibility of renewed war. There is a misconception that victory will be easily achieved simply by providing more funds, more weapons, or imposing more sanctions.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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