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On September 17th, according to Futures Market News, in the 38th week of 2026, the total output of refined oil products from independent refineries in China was 2.2054 million tons, a decrease of 66,400 tons from the previous week. Specifically, gasoline output was 671,700 tons, a decrease of 31,200 tons from the previous week; diesel output was 1.5337 million tons, a decrease of 35,200 tons from the previous week. A new round of unit maintenance began at some refineries, leading to a decrease in output from refineries in major regions such as Shandong and Northwest China, resulting in a reduction in the overall refined oil product output of independent refineries nationwide.French European Affairs Minister: The United States, or any other country, has no right to veto the relationship between the EU and Canada.September 17th - According to Nikkei, the Japanese and US governments are in talks to build a semiconductor factory. This project is part of a $550 billion (approximately 85 trillion yen) investment plan in the US agreed upon during tariff negotiations, and is estimated to be worth trillions of yen. Previously, investment in the US was mainly concentrated in the power generation sector; now it will shift to high-tech manufacturing. Operations will be handled by semiconductor foundry giant GlobalFoundries. This information was revealed by negotiators from both Japan and the US.French Minister for European Affairs: (Regarding Trumps remarks on EU-Canada relations) The United States has no right to determine the geopolitical direction of the European Union.On September 17th, a Danske Bank report indicated limited signs of inflation transmission to broader prices in the UK. Core inflation remained at 2.6% for the third consecutive month, and businesses own price inflation expectations for the next year fell to 3.8%. Meanwhile, July GDP growth was 0.4%, and the labor market cooled moderately, which is insufficient to support an immediate interest rate hike. Bank of England Governor Bailey remains inclined to wait and see, and Deputy Governor Lombardy has previously emphasized that a clear second-round inflation effect is needed before adjusting policy. Therefore, a 6-3 vote to keep interest rates unchanged is highly likely on Thursday. The baseline scenario remains that interest rates will remain at 3.75% until the second quarter of 2027. If energy prices remain high and the economy remains resilient, the Bank of England may still implement an "insurance rate hike." Due to relatively aggressive market pricing, if the policy stance is less hawkish than expected, the euro/pound may face upside risks.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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