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Japans annual merchandise exports in August were -0.1%, in line with expectations of -1.90% and the previous reading of -2.60%.On September 17th, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a combat report on the 16th, stating that over the past day, multiple Russian army groups continued to strike Ukrainian forces in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia. Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian fuel depots, a Western logistics distribution center for weapons and equipment supplied to Ukraine, and storage and launch sites for long-range drones. The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff also reported that in the early morning hours of the 16th, Ukrainian special operations forces, in coordination with other IDF units, once again carried out precision strikes against a refinery in Saratov Oblast, Russia. An explosion and fire occurred in the target area, the details of which are still under investigation. Ukrainian forces claim the refinery supplied petroleum products to Russian forces for combat operations.Recent Google searches in the United States for "help with mortgage" have surpassed those during the 2008 financial crisis.1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.27%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq down 0.07%. UnitedHealth Group fell over 2%, and Nvidia fell over 1%, leading the Dow lower. The Wind US Tech 7 Index rose 0.01%, with Tesla up nearly 3% and Facebook up nearly 2%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with NIO up over 8% and Baidu up nearly 8%. 2. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 3.15 basis points to 3.495%, the 3-year Treasury yield down 2.49 basis points to 3.469%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 1.56 basis points to 3.585%, the 10-year Treasury yield down 0.58 basis points to 4.028%, and the 30-year Treasury yield down 0.19 basis points to 4.652%. 3. International precious metals futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.23% at $3,727.50/oz and COMEX silver futures down 0.19% at $42.88/oz. Analysts indicate that a weakening US dollar, rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand are supporting precious metals prices, though some contracts have fallen due to policy uncertainty. 4. International oil prices rose strongly, with the main US crude oil contract closing up 1.97% at $64.55/barrel, and the main Brent crude oil contract up 1.59% at $68.51/barrel. Ukraines intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have raised supply concerns. Meanwhile, a 3.42 million barrel drop in US API crude oil inventories, far exceeding expectations of a 1.565 million barrel drop, further supported oil prices. 5. Most base metals closed higher in London. LME nickel futures rose 0.06% to $15,445/ton, LME aluminum futures rose 0.43% to $2,712/ton, and LME tin futures rose 0.32% to $34,750/ton. LME copper futures fell 0.68% to $10,117/ton. Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that nickel inventories have accelerated in the past two weeks. On September 16, LME nickel stocks increased by 1,950 tons to 226,400 tons, a four-year high.On September 17, the U.S. government officially launched the process of reviewing and possibly renewing the 2020 North American Free Trade Agreement on Tuesday, soliciting opinions from the public, businesses, and unions on the agreement. The request from the Office of the United States Trade Representative solicits opinions on a wide range of issues related to the USMCA, including compliance, issues affecting the investment environment, and strategies to "enhance North Americas economic security and competitiveness." Comments must be submitted within 45 days of the notice being published in the Federal Register, and the Office of the United States Trade Representative will hold a public hearing on the agreement on November 17. According to the law, public comment and hearings are required before the formal joint review of the USMCA begins. The joint review is scheduled to start on July 1, 2026.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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