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February 11th - At a regular press conference held by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council on February 11th, a reporter asked: "Recently, the Taiwan Coast Guard announced that it will carry out so-called security maintenance work during the Spring Festival. What is your comment on this?" Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that the Spring Festival is the most important traditional festival for the Chinese nation. If the DPP authorities dare to provoke trouble unnecessarily during this peaceful festival, they must bear all the consequences.February 11th, Futures News: According to the official WeChat account of Tsingshan Industrial Group, 1. Cooperation Overview: Tsingshan Industrial Group and the government of Madagascar signed a memorandum of understanding on a mining and green industry park project. Both parties will jointly explore the investment and construction of a large-scale comprehensive park integrating mineral development, processing and transformation, green industries, and supporting infrastructure, based on Madagascars advantageous mineral resources. 2. Construction Plan: The project plans to include the construction of key infrastructure such as its own port, highways, and airport, aiming to promote the extension of the mineral resource industrial chain and the enhancement of added value locally, thereby promoting industrialization and regional economic development. 3. Official Support: Madagascars President Michael Landrianilina stated that the project aligns with the national industrialization development strategy. Madagascar has established a high-level ministerial joint mechanism to conduct in-depth discussions and feasibility studies with Tsingshan on mineral resource policies, legal frameworks, land supply, and environmental assessments.February 11th - He Xiaopeng, Chairman of XPeng Motors (09868.HK), announced on social media that XPeng Motors largest sales and service center in China has officially reopened after renovation. Located in Huangpu District, Guangzhou, the center covers an area of 25,000 square meters and includes a newly upgraded standardized after-sales service center.February 11th - At a regular press conference held by the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office on February 11th, spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that the average load factor for cross-strait routes is expected to reach 80% by 2025, fully reflecting the strong demand for direct cross-strait flights. She expressed hope that Taiwan would heed public opinion and promptly remove unreasonable restrictions on cross-strait air transport, allowing airlines on both sides to independently arrange flight schedules based on market demand. Whether there is actual demand for flights should be determined by the market; the DPP authorities are welcome to lift restrictions and see for themselves.February 11th - The yen strengthened against most G10 and Asian currencies in early trading, primarily driven by concerns about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japanese authorities. Philip Wee, a foreign exchange strategist at DBS Bank, noted that Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and top foreign exchange official Jun Mimura have reiterated their close monitoring of any excessive yen depreciation. He stated, "Their statements have kept market concerns about foreign exchange intervention alive." Wee added that the USD/JPY pair fell for the second consecutive trading day overnight, driven by profit-taking, after already declining 0.9% on Monday.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

微信截图_20220721151813.png

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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