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Market news: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that H200 chip production is "progressing smoothly".On January 7, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow is closely monitoring unusual activity surrounding the Russian oil tanker "Mariner." The vessel is currently flying the Russian Federation flag and sailing in international waters of the North Atlantic, fully complying with international maritime law. The Foreign Ministry emphasized that "for incomprehensible reasons, the US and NATO militaries are giving this Russian ship an excessive level of attention that is clearly disproportionate to its peaceful navigation. For several days, a US Coast Guard vessel has been tailing the Mariner, even though the tanker is approximately 4,000 kilometers from the US coast." The Foreign Ministry noted that Moscow hopes Western countries that claim to be committed to upholding freedom of navigation on the high seas will lead by example in practicing this principle.Fitch: If Venezuelan crude oil supplies suddenly increase significantly, Canadian crude oil exports may face price pressure.Fitch: The U.S. actions in Venezuela have a limited impact on North American oil producers.On January 7th, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that he had been briefed weeks in advance about the operation in Venezuela and initially doubted its success without American casualties. He called the final outcome of the operation "flawless" and said that the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro would help reduce energy costs. "Most importantly, this means we will have greater control over the worlds energy resources, leading to better economic outcomes for our people and leveraging these resources to achieve greater peace and prosperity," Vance asserted.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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