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January 14th - A growing number of options traders are ruling out a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut and instead betting that the Fed will keep rates unchanged throughout the year. This trend can be traced back to at least last Friday, when US employment data showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. Market pricing suggests this virtually eliminated the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month, prompting more traders to postpone their expectations for rate cuts in the coming months. David Robin, interest rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services, noted, "From a data perspective, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until at least March has increased, and the likelihood of stable rates increases with each meeting." Recent options flows for the covered overnight funding rate, which is closely linked to the Feds short-term benchmark rate, have sent a more hawkish signal. New options positions are primarily concentrated in March and June contracts to hedge against a continued delay in the Feds next rate cut. Other positions targeting longer-term contracts are expected to profit from the Feds stance of keeping rates unchanged throughout the year. Robin stated that regardless of whether the market believes the Fed will hold rates steady, these trades are low-cost, and as a prudent risk manager, you would want to hold these positions.On January 14th, according to futures market news: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,698,750 lots, an increase of 633,450 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,018,272 lots, an increase of 19,747 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 322,400 lots, an increase of 118,072 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 231,565 lots, an increase of 869 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 620,866 lots, a decrease of 256,129 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,635,714 lots, a decrease of 7,021 lots from the previous trading day.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The uncertainty and risks of nonlinear shocks remain high, and the outlook faces risks from two aspects.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The ECB is currently in a good position.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The Fed’s actions are worrying.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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