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December 4th - U.S. Treasury yields rose in Asian trading, reversing Wednesdays losses, but remained within their recent range. Initial jobless claims data will be released this afternoon, a potentially important input ahead of the Federal Reserves December interest rate decision. According to LSEG data, the money market continues to bet on a rate cut, pricing in an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut. Wednesdays weak ADP private sector employment data showed an unexpected decline in November jobs. According to Tradeweb data, the two-year Treasury yield rose 1.8 basis points to 3.503%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.082%.December 4th - According to David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, the UK government will struggle to secure spending funds, which will help push the 30-year gilt yield to 6% within the next year. While Chancellor Reeves successfully increased the countrys fiscal buffer in last weeks budget, she relied on a series of tax increases that wont take effect for several years. He believes these measures will be implemented close to the next general election, expected in 2029. Zahn said, "Its very unusual for any government to significantly increase taxes so close to the election." Zahn has been predicting higher UK gilt yields since April. He sold all his bond positions in March, stating that the market is most vulnerable to any increase in spending given the UKs dire fiscal situation. His contrarian prediction of a 6% yield on the 30-year gilt has not yet materialized. The yield briefly rose to 5.75% in early September but had fallen back to 5.2% by Wednesdays close.Ukrainian energy company DTEK said Russia attacked its energy facilities in the Odessa region.Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.60%, German DAX futures rose 0.64%, and UK FTSE 100 futures rose 0.31%.Kazakhstans Deputy Minister of Energy: Oil transported via the Caspian Pipeline Union (CPC) is unrestricted.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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