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Germanys final November CPI month-on-month rate, the UKs October three-month GDP month-on-month rate, October seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and industrial output (i.e., manufacturing output month-on-month rate) will be released in ten minutes.On December 12th, several major German economic research institutions released their winter forecast reports on the 11th, indicating that the German economy is expected to grow by only 0.1% in 2025, a further downward revision from the 0.2% growth forecast in the autumn, due to factors such as a significant decline in exports to the United States. The reports stated that the continued large-scale tariffs imposed by the United States are putting pressure on the global economy and trade, while the German economy is undergoing profound structural changes. The reports project German economic growth of 0.8% and 1.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, both down 0.5 percentage points from previous forecasts.On December 12th, Citigroup interest rate strategists stated in a report that, based on inquiries with clients, the market is highly focused on the extent to which Eurozone government bond supply will be front-loaded in 2026. They believe this focus is "understandable." The report anticipates that 2026 will continue the usual supply pattern, with most annual bond issuances completed in the first quarter. Citigroup projects first-quarter government bond supply to reach €495 billion, approximately 34% of the estimated total financing demand for the following year.On December 12th, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Implementation Plan for the Civil Explosives Industry to Implement the National Intelligent Manufacturing Standard System Construction Guidelines." The plan proposes that by 2030, a total of 30 intelligent manufacturing standards for the civil explosives industry will be formulated or revised, establishing a relatively complete intelligent manufacturing standard set for the industry. Combining the development trends of intelligent manufacturing technology with the practical foundation of the civil explosives industry, the plan promotes the exploration of typical application scenarios of advanced intelligent manufacturing technologies in the industry, adhering to the principle of "overall planning and prioritizing urgent needs," and orderly advancing the development of industry standards.December 12 – Indonesia is expected to reach a trade agreement with the United States by the end of the year, with both sides facing increasing pressure to resolve differences that could jeopardize bilateral relations. Jakartas Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hattato, stated on Friday that Indonesia will send a delegation to Washington next week for consultations. This comes after senior officials from both sides "agreed to finalize the consensus reached by the two leaders on July 22." In July, the US and Indonesia reached a trade framework agreement; however, US officials subsequently claimed Indonesia had broken its promises, while Indonesia rejected US demands, fearing they would undermine its independence, particularly in key mineral and energy sectors. Previous reports indicated that Indonesia particularly opposed a clause in the agreement that would allow the US to cancel the agreement if Indonesia signed it in a way deemed detrimental to US interests.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.