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The President of the Venezuelan National Assembly stated that elections will not be held during this period.Futures News, February 10th - According to foreign media reports, Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are likely to open higher on Tuesday morning, following the gains in the Chicago soybean oil market. Chicago soybean oil futures surged to their highest level in six months, and coupled with a firm rise in international crude oil futures, this will help boost the early performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release its January palm oil supply and demand data today. Analysts expect palm oil stocks to decrease at the end of January due to declining production and increased exports. This could also provide support for palm oil prices. Shipping surveyors will release palm oil export data for early February on Tuesday. Previous data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 14.9% to 17.9% in January.Japans Topix index rose 1%, hitting a new record high.February 10th - A research report from CITIC Securities states that gold prices have recently experienced significant volatility. From a fundamental perspective, we believe this is due to changing market expectations regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the situation in Iran, driving gold prices to initially rise rapidly before experiencing a sharp decline. Speculative funds in the market have also amplified this trend. Looking ahead to the short term, we believe the market may have overestimated the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. However, the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran remains high, and the volatility in the gold market may only subside after the situation has calmed down. Looking ahead to 2026, we maintain our optimistic outlook for precious and non-ferrous metal prices.February 10th - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the Feds balance sheet needs to shrink, but this should not preclude policymakers from opting for large-scale asset purchases during an economic crisis. Milan pointed out that shrinking the Feds balance sheet would reduce its influence in financial markets and provide policymakers with more options in the event of a future crisis. Speaking on a podcast on Tuesday, Milan said, "Expanding the balance sheet is the right move when interest rates are at the zero lower bound and were in the middle of a financial crisis. But you should keep the powder keg dry for when such action is needed." While Milan expressed support for a plan to shrink the balance sheet over time, he emphasized that it cannot be done immediately. Milan said, "We have many hurdles to overcome in the regulatory process before we can achieve this. This will take a long time, and we cant start cutting tomorrow."

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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