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On January 12th, Citigroup pointed out that Indonesias fiscal deficit this year may far exceed the statutory limit, as the government increases spending on the nationwide free meal program and reconstruction projects in flood-stricken provinces of Sumatra. In a report on Monday, Citigroup economist Helmi Arman revised his 2026 budget deficit as a percentage of GDP upward to 3.5% from the initial 2.7%. Citigroups base case assumption is that the government will amend the National Fiscal Law by the second half of this year to relax the long-standing 3% fiscal deficit cap. Arman stated that if the authorities choose to significantly cut spending to maintain fiscal discipline, they may avoid exceeding the limit. He predicts that by 2029, Indonesias debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from approximately 39% in 2025 to 42%.On January 12th, Baisheng Intelligent announced that it recently signed a "Strategic Cooperation Agreement on Parking Lots" with Baolong Group, with a planned total cooperation amount of 200 million yuan. Baolong Group and its affiliated companies own commercial parking lot operation rights/ownership nationwide. To effectively manage parking spaces and improve parking service and management levels, they need to cooperate with professional operating companies to operate parking lots. Baisheng Intelligent and its affiliated companies are integrated parking solution operators specializing in parking and new energy vehicle charging operation management, and can undertake the systematic operation of commercial parking lots.On January 12th, Sean Carlow, senior foreign exchange analyst at InTouch Capital Markets, stated that the investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has triggered increased risk aversion in the market, with traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the Swiss franc leading the gains. Powells previous statements have indicated the Feds readiness to defend its independence. Although many analysts have downplayed the threat of U.S. governance issues to the dollar, Trumps attacks on the Fed have shaken the confidence of many investors. He reminded the market that gold prices surged last August when Trump began attacking Fed Governor Tim Cook.Tianhe Defense: The companys radio frequency devices and chip products can be used in the field of satellite communications.On January 12th, Tmall released its "2025 New Brand Development Report." Regionally, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinhua, Hangzhou, Quanzhou, Xiamen, Wuhan, Xuzhou, Dongguan, and Zhengzhou saw the most new merchants, becoming Tmalls top 10 cities for brand creation in 2025. Guangzhou continues to lead in entrepreneurial vitality, ranking first for three consecutive years, with over 18,000 new stores opening in Guangzhou in 2025, double the number in 2023.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

微信截图_20220721151813.png

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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