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Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po stated today (December 14th) that public consultation on the new fiscal years budget is about to begin. One of the key issues will be how to further expand the scope and areas of economic development, accelerate the cultivation and application of innovative technologies, expedite the optimization of the industrial structure, create more high-quality jobs, and add momentum to high-quality development. We look forward to more concrete suggestions from everyone, working together to build a better future for Hong Kong.On December 14, the Sansha Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning stating that rocket debris will fall in certain waters of the South China Sea between 10:15 and 12:15 on December 16, and entry is prohibited.On December 14th, a political funds income and expenditure report revealed that at least five branches of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Mie, Osaka, Yamaguchi, Nagasaki, and Kagoshima prefectures used political funds to pay for entertainment venues such as bars and nightclubs. In 2023, these expenditures totaled approximately 1.11 million yen (about 50,000 yuan). According to regulations, LDP branches are not required to record single political fund expenditures of less than 50,000 yen (about 2,264 yuan), suggesting the actual amount of political funds involved in the alleged misuse may be higher. In response to the allegations, the Osaka branch claimed the expenditures were "intended to create a smooth communication environment." The Mie and Nagasaki branches stated they would strengthen their management.On December 14th, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that two U.S. Army soldiers and one civilian translator were killed and three others wounded in an attack in Syria on December 13th. The Department of Defense stated that the attack was carried out by militants from the extremist group ISIS, and the attackers were killed. In response, U.S. President Trump stated that retaliatory action would be taken. Also on December 13th, Nourdin Baba, a spokesman for the Syrian transitional governments Interior Ministry, said that the gunman who attacked a joint Syrian-U.S. patrol in Homs province in central Syria was a Syrian security officer who may have held extremist views.On December 14th, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is preparing for meetings with the United States and European allies in the coming days. He will travel to Berlin to meet with US and European representatives to discuss "building the foundations of peace." Zelenskyy stated that this series of consultations is "decisive" for Ukraine, and that Ukraines core objective is "to achieve a decent and just peace." Earlier that day, Germany announced that it would host a US and Ukrainian delegation on the 14th to hold talks on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and to prepare for the summit of European leaders, including Zelenskyy, to be held in Berlin on the 15th. According to previous reports, US Presidential Envoy Witkov and former White House senior advisor Jared Kushner have already departed for Germany to meet with Zelenskyy and other European leaders.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

微信截图_20220721151813.png

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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