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1. Precious Metals Market: Spot silver surged 6.00% to $109.797 per ounce, while the Shanghai silver futures main contract jumped 6.65%. Indian gold and silver futures both hit record highs. 2. Exchange Regulation: Violations: The Shanghai Futures Exchange discovered 16 clients in 3 groups suspected of failing to declare their actual control relationships in tin and silver futures trading, imposing a one-month restriction on opening new positions and restricting withdrawals. Trading Limits: The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the night session of January 26, the maximum daily opening positions for silver and tin futures contracts will be adjusted to 800 lots and 200 lots respectively. Industry Interpretation: Analysts from CITIC Securities Futures and Guoxin Futures believe that the Shanghai Futures Exchanges rare midday announcement reflects a "zero-tolerance" stance and a determination to dynamically "apply the brakes" to cool down the market. 3. Inventory and Open Interest Data: COMEX silver inventory decreased significantly by 16.957 million ounces month-on-month, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 43.9 tons month-on-month. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased slightly, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 16.9 tons. COMEX silver non-commercial long positions decreased by 4,372 contracts, while short positions increased by 2,474 contracts, indicating an increase in short-selling pressure. 4. Fund subscriptions suspended: Guotou Silver LOF will suspend subscriptions starting January 28th. 5. Summary of institutional views: Investinglive analyst: Spot silver trading prices are still about half of the 1980 inflation-adjusted peak, but also warns of potential short-term selling pressure or margin changes, and does not recommend chasing the price higher. Julius Baer analyst: Silver has become the "Trump of the trading world," with prices entirely driven by buying interest rather than fundamentals; upward momentum may continue to $125 or even $150. Jinyuan Futures: This round of market activity driven by chasing the price higher is extremely fragile; the risk of a silver price correction from its high levels is increasing; pay attention to the potential for platinum and palladium to catch up. Dongwu Futures: Geopolitical crises (Greenland/US/Europe/Middle East) and the trend of de-dollarization (crisis on the Fed/central bank gold purchases) are the core drivers, with silver, possessing industrial attributes, experiencing even greater gains. 22V Research: This is not a cyclical fluctuation in silver, but rather related to the AI industry, exhibiting parabolic fluctuations within a commodity bull market. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)Sources say Japan and the United States plan to invest in synthetic diamond production.On January 27, Yonhap News Agency reported that South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated that resource allocation needs to be rationally adjusted to change the current situation of excessive asset concentration in real estate. He said that excessive housing market expansion will inevitably create a bubble, which could severely damage the overall economy and undermine mutual trust among members of society. Lee Jae-myung also mentioned the governments recent decision not to extend the temporary suspension of the capital gains tax on owners of multiple properties, criticizing the repeated extensions of the suspension period after the legislation and the opposition to not extending the suspension period.Citigroup: Initiates coverage of Sanofi (SNY.O) with a neutral rating and a target price of €85.On January 27th, a team led by Shen Zhichun, President of Samsung Electronics China Research Institute, and Lee Sang-bin, Resident Staff Member/Director of Samsung Research Institute Korea, visited the Haihe Laboratory for Brain-Computer Interaction and Human-Computer Collaboration. Shen Zhichun stated that Samsung Electronics China Research Institute is actively responding to national policy and plans to invest in research and technology reserves in the field of brain-computer interfaces. He expressed full confidence in the industrialization prospects of brain-computer interface technology and looked forward to further deepening communication and collaboration with the laboratory in the future. It is understood that Samsung Electronics China Research Institute is Samsung Electronics only pioneering research institute in China, focusing on cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, next-generation communication technologies, and standardization.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.