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On September 9th, Morgan Stanley released a research report indicating that Link REIT (00823.HK)s overall merchant sales in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 (end of June 2026) declined by 1% year-on-year. Among them, the catering business continued to improve, growing by 1.5% year-on-year; supermarket performance remained weak, declining by 1.9% year-on-year. Management expects Hong Kong property renewal rents to decline by 5% year-on-year in the first half of fiscal year 2027 (end of September 2026), an improvement compared to the 8.2% decline for the full fiscal year 2026 and the 6.4% decline in the first half of fiscal year 2026. However, the guidance of an 8% year-on-year decline in renewal rents for the full fiscal year remains unchanged, implying that the performance in the second half of the year will be worse than the first half. Morgan Stanley noted that Link REITs annual cost reduction plan of HK$200 million is progressing well. Through cost reduction and share buybacks, the distribution per unit in fiscal year 2027 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, with financing costs remaining at 3.4%. The Anderson Road project is 80% pre-leased and is scheduled to open in October this year. Morgan Stanley expects it to support rental income in fiscal year 2028 and has given it an overweight rating with a target price of HK$44.On September 9th, JPMorgan Chase issued a research report stating that the sales slowdown at Laopu Gold (06181.HK) in the second quarter was more cyclical than structural. Furthermore, the companys gross margin exceeded expectations, its strategies for dealing with gold price fluctuations were clearer, and its VIC and overseas expansion could improve medium-term growth visibility. Liquidity and dividends also provide downside protection. JPMorgan Chase still expects Laopu Golds performance to gradually recover, projecting profits of approximately RMB 800 million and RMB 1.2 billion for the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Although short-term sales performance still depends on gold price trends, and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays will be the next key observation points, the bank believes the companys brand competitiveness and medium- to long-term profitability remain solid. The bank maintains its "Buy" rating on the company with a target price of HKD 891.French industrial production fell 0.5% year-on-year in July, compared with a previous reading of -0.10%.French manufacturing output fell 0.8% month-on-month in July, compared with a previous reading of -1.10%.French manufacturing output fell 2% year-on-year in July, compared with a previous reading of -1.70%.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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