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On January 13, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the "Several Policies of Guangzhou Municipality on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry Across the Entire Chain During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period (Draft for Solicitation of Opinions)". The draft mentions accelerating breakthroughs in the design of high-end general-purpose chips such as processors, memory chips, and edge computing chips; actively supporting the development of specialized chips such as RISC-V (an open-source instruction set architecture based on the principle of reduced instruction set), automotive-grade, display drivers, sensors, optical communication, and 6G; strengthening support for the first-round tape-out of integrated circuit companies products; and providing subsidies of up to 50% of the tape-out cost to qualified companies that conduct tape-out of 28nm and below chips with independent intellectual property rights or significant competitive advantages.On January 13th, Futures News reported that recent frequent protests in a Middle Eastern country, resulting in hundreds of deaths, have raised concerns about potential US military intervention. This has led to a return of geopolitical premiums and a continuous rise in crude oil prices for several days, with a cumulative increase of $5 per barrel. Zhuochuang Information predicts that while the situation in South America is generally under control, the situation in the Middle East remains unclear. The US is inclined towards military intervention, while the Middle East is seeking negotiations. The market is generally cautious, and any conflict will likely push up oil prices. Oil prices are more likely to rise than fall, and caution is advised regarding the risk of a sudden surge in oil prices due to military intervention.On January 13, at the ceremony marking the production of the 1 millionth Seres vehicle, Zhang Xinghai, Chairman of the Seres Group, announced that the first million-vehicle sales of the Wenjie brand were achieved after five years. In the next two years, the company will strive to achieve the second million-vehicle target, namely, an average annual sales volume of over 500,000 vehicles from 2026 to 2027.Citigroup says silver will continue to outperform gold.On January 13th, Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang stated in a report that Pop Marts domestic revenue growth may slow in the fourth quarter. He indicated that due to a "high base and delays in the launch of new plush keychains featuring its flagship IPs," the companys overall revenue growth in the Chinese market in the fourth quarter may be lower than in the third quarter. He added that some Labubu products are experiencing inventory backlogs in certain retail stores, indicating that market interest in older products is waning. Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate for the stock at HK$280. "After the recent sharp decline in share price, Pop Marts valuation is now attractive, and we believe the markets concerns about its short-term revenue fluctuations are excessive."

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.