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Market news: The Trump administration has canceled emissions credits from the Environmental Protection Agency for vehicles equipped with start-stop technology, ending a program designed to incentivize automakers to install fuel-saving systems that shut off the engine when stopped at red lights.February 16th - Analysts predict Asian stocks will rise on Monday after recent selling pressure in US stocks eased and inflation data supported expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. Japanese and Australian stock index futures also foreshadow gains. In early Sydney trading, the US dollar was largely unchanged against major currencies. The calm in the market suggests overall risk sentiment is supported after several weeks of declines in the S&P 500, driven by concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on industries ranging from software to logistics.On February 16th, according to the Financial Times, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned Elon Musk and other tech executives that in the UK, "no platform has a passport" when it comes to illegal content. This comes as the Prime Minister is tightening online safety regulations following a scandal involving xAIs Grok chatbot. The government stated it will seek the power to "act swiftly" to close legal loopholes, explicitly bringing AI chatbots such as Grok, Googles Gemini, and OpenAIs ChatGPT under the jurisdiction of the Cybersecurity Act, alongside social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok. Starmer cited Musks AI company xAI and its Grok chatbot (which was used this year to generate pornographic images of women and children, triggering an investigation by the UK communications regulator Ofcom) as an example, saying, "Our actions with Grok send a clear message: no platform has a passport."Conflict Status: 1. A Ukrainian drone strike in Luhansk injured 19 people. 2. Russian forces claim they have taken control of 12 settlements previously held by Ukrainian forces this month. 3. Ukrainian military: Attacked the Taman oil terminal in Russias Krasnodar region. 4. Russian forces stated they have occupied the village of Tsvetkove in Ukraines Zaporizhzhia region. 5. The local governor stated that the port of Taman in Russias Krasnodar region was attacked by drones. Oil storage tanks, warehouses, and the dock at Taman port were damaged in the attack. Peace Negotiations: 1. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: Russia is willing to discuss with the US and other parties the introduction of an external governance mechanism to Ukraine. 2. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kalas: It seems EU countries are not yet ready to give Ukraine a specific date for joining the EU. February 16th - On February 15th local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó posted on his personal social media that, due to Ukraines continued suspension of transit transport through the "Friendship" oil pipeline, Hungary and Slovakia have sought assistance from Croatia, hoping to transport Russian crude oil via the "Adriatic" pipeline. Szijjártó stated that Hungary and Slovakia had previously secured the right to continue purchasing cheap Russian crude oil through the "Friendship" pipeline, and this sanction exemption also includes the option of purchasing Russian crude oil by sea if transit via the pipeline becomes unfeasible.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

微信截图_20220721151813.png

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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