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Market news: Members of the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) have agreed to boycott the World Cup.On July 30th, it was reported that the Japanese government officially established the "National Intelligence Agency" on July 31st local time. The first director is Kazuya Hara. Hara previously served as the head of the Foreign Affairs Division and the Director-General of the Security Bureau of the National Police Agency, and has served as Cabinet Intelligence Officer since 2023. According to a bill previously passed by the Japanese Diet, Japan will build an intelligence system with the "National Intelligence Council" at its core and the "National Intelligence Agency" as its executive body, responsible for coordinating intelligence activities in areas such as security and counter-terrorism, as well as "foreign intelligence activities" involving foreign espionage. The "National Intelligence Agency" is also granted comprehensive coordination authority to request intelligence from various government ministries and agencies.On July 30, the Russian Federation government announced that, in order to stabilize the domestic fuel market, it has decided to extend the export ban on gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and light diesel oil for another six months, from August 1, 2026 to January 31, 2027. Meanwhile, according to the new regulations, starting September 1, fuel production companies will be exempt from the ban on direct exports of diesel, marine fuel, and light diesel oil.Market news: Sources say that Russian oil exports through western ports in July are expected to fall by about 4% compared to June, as attacks in Ukraine reduced shipments to the Black Sea. 1. Agricultural consultancy Datagro projects Brazils 2026/27 soybean production at 185.6 million tons, up from 182.8 million tons in the previous year; the soybean planting area in Brazil for 2026/27 is expected to increase by 0.3% to 49.3 million hectares. 2. According to the Iranian news agency IRNA, citing Iranian lawmakers, Iran will never accept a US-style ceasefire and will continue to respond to aggressors. 3. Data released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in 2026/2027. 4. An Indonesian Ministry of Trade regulation released Wednesday showing that Indonesia has lowered its August crude palm oil reference price to $996.52 per ton from $1,000.90 per ton in July. The new reference price will keep the export tax on crude palm oil unchanged next month at $148 per ton. Indonesia also levies a separate export tax of 12.5% on crude palm oil. 5. Data released by the U.S. government on Thursday showed that the U.S. PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, the first monthly decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates unchanged this week. 6. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 302,000 tons, higher than market expectations, compared to 56,000 tons the previous week; net soybean export sales for the 2026/2027 marketing year were 1,333,000 tons, higher than market expectations, compared to 1,537,000 tons the previous week. 7. This week, Mysteels Coal and Coke Division surveyed the profitability of independent coking plants across the country. The national average profit per ton of coke was -25 yuan/ton; the average profit for near-first-grade coke in Shanxi was -20 yuan/ton, in Shandong it was 12 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it was -37 yuan/ton, and in Hebei it was 14 yuan/ton. 8. According to USDA agricultural drought monitoring data, as of July 28, 2026, the proportion of major U.S. crop-producing areas experiencing moderate to severe drought (D1+) is as follows: 26% of U.S. soybean-producing areas are experiencing drought, up 8 percentage points from 18% last week; and 5% at the same time last year, up 21 percentage points from the same period last year. 9. The Paraná State Rural Economic Institute (Deral) in Brazil projects Paranás 2025/26 soybean production at 21.8 million tons, almost unchanged from last months forecast. Paranás second-crop corn production is projected at 17.05 million tons, compared to 17.6 million tons last month. 10. According to SMM, on July 30, Yinman Mining received a "Decision on On-site Handling Measures" from the Xiwuqi Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the simultaneous shutdown of its tailings system. Given Yinman Minings relatively small copper production volume, the impact of this shutdown on the overall domestic copper concentrate supply is limited; the impact is expected to be mainly concentrated on tin and silver products. 11. On the evening of July 30, Beijing time, He Lifeng, the Chinese lead negotiator for China-US economic and trade relations and Vice Premier of the State Council, held a video call with the US lead negotiators, US Treasury Secretary Bessant and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides had a frank, in-depth and constructive exchange on implementing the important consensus reached at the Beijing meeting between the two heads of state, maintaining the stability of China-US economic and trade relations, expanding pragmatic cooperation, and properly addressing each others concerns in the next stage.

Silver price analysis: XAG/USD declines from a 13-day-old resistance line below $21.00

Daniel Rogers

Mar 13, 2023 11:37

 截屏2022-07-29 上午11.05.40.png

 

Silver price (XAG/USD) maintains modest gains near $20.60 as it probes the metal's retreat from a key short-term resistance line on Monday morning. Despite this, the XAG/USD maintains its three-day winning trend and extends yesterday's recovery from the lowest levels since November 4, 2022.

 

Nonetheless, the impending bear cross on the MACD and the bullion's inability to remain above the 200-SMA, not to mention the failure to cross a two-week-old resistance line, give Silver price bears reason for optimism.

 

Consequently, the bullion remains on track to retest the two-week-old horizontal support zone close to $20.40. However, the metal's further decline may make it difficult to break the $20.00 psychological magnet.

 

The focus will then shift to the monthly low of $19.95 and the November 2022 low around $18.85.

 

On the contrary, recovery movements remain elusive unless the XAG/USD remains below the downward-sloping resistance line from late February, around $20.90 at the latest. The $21.00 round number also functions as an upside filter.

 

The previous week's high near $21.30 may serve as the last line of defense for the XAG/USD skeptics if Silver purchasers maintain control above $21.00.