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The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.The UKs core retail price index was 4.4% year-on-year in August, compared with 4.70% in the previous month.The UKs retail price index rose by 0.4% in August, in line with expectations of 0.5% and the previous reading of 0.40%.The UKs CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.10%.

Silver Price Prediction - Silver Markets Remain Volatile

Alina Haynes

Jun 29, 2022 12:16

截屏2022-06-07 下午5.18.01.png 

 

During Tuesday's trading session, silver markets were quite active, as we continue to trade over the $21 barrier. The $21 level has been a pretty significant region, but the overall picture remains bearish. It is difficult not to notice the large "H pattern" on this chart, thus it is probable that we will attempt to reach the $20 level given sufficient time.

 

The $22 level above continues to provide resistance and will likely be significant owing to the 50 Day EMA approaching it once again. Ultimately, I believe this is a market that will always have a large number of sellers at rallies, mostly owing to the fact that US interest rates will continue to rise, so working against the value of silver. Additionally, pay particular attention to the US Dollar Index, as it has a negative association with this market.

 

I would not consider this market a buying opportunity until the silver market breaks over $22.50, because it has been so bearish for so long. I do feel that we will ultimately test the $20 level in the future, and a breach below that level would create significant selling pressure. Long-term, silver's price might go as low as $12 if it falls below the $20 threshold. Keep in mind that silver is also an industrial metal, which is not helping it as a worldwide recession is imminent.

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