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On March 3, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Lane warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a continued decline in oil and gas supplies in the region could lead to a "significant spike" in eurozone inflation and a "sharp decline in output." He stated that "in terms of direction, a jump in energy prices would put upward pressure on inflation, especially in the short term," and that this development would have a "negative impact" on economic growth. Lane added that "if it also triggers a repricing of risks in financial markets, the impact would be amplified." Lane cited a scenario analysis released by the ECB in December 2023, which indicated that if the Middle East conflict leads to a continued decline in energy supplies and disruptions to regional economic activity, there would be a significant spike in energy-driven inflation and a sharp decline in output. In that analysis, the ECB assumed that one-third of the oil and gas supplies transported through the Strait of Hormuz would be disrupted. In this scenario, oil prices, then around $80 per barrel, would rise by more than 50% to around $130. Eurozone economic growth would decline by 0.6 percentage points the following year, while inflation would rise by more than 0.8 percentage points.According to the Financial Times, Netflix (NFLX.O) has warned that the deal between Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.O) will result in layoffs.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane: A protracted war with Iran could lead to a "surge" in inflation.Futures News, March 3rd: Economies.com analysts latest view: Spot gold prices rose during the days trading, having found support at $5300, which provided a technical basis for resuming its upward trend and generated significant positive momentum. With the overbought condition on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resolved, spot gold has room for further gains, especially given the emergence of new positive converging signals, and is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term.March 3 - Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell further to 1.0%, German DAX futures fell 1.0%, and FTSE 100 futures fell 0.2%.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Have a Brutal Start to the Week

Jimmy Khan

May 10, 2022 10:39

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 gapped lower in the futures market to start the week on the back foot, and then just kept falling from there. As a result, the market seems to be on the verge of collapsing totally, but we still have the psychologically significant level of 4000 to contend with. The 4000 level will provide some support, but if we break down below it, the market is likely to go considerably more to the south.


In the interim, we could see a recovery, but that bounce will almost probably be sold into, so I'm watching for rallies that show indications of tiredness that I can profit from. I'm not interested in purchasing this market until the Federal Reserve alters its attitude on interest rates. That does not seem to be the case anytime soon, thus it is worth waiting for chances to become scarce once again.


If we break down below the 4000 mark, we will almost certainly see additional selling, with a sharp acceleration to the negative.


For me to be interested in purchasing, the market would have to break over the 4300 level, which we are nowhere close doing, and the Monday candlestick has made that much less probable than it was before. The S&P 500 will suffer as long as we are concerned about inflation and lack of growth in general. In addition, the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, which has been the only focus of Wall Street for well over a decade.