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Jefferies strategist Zervos: Dont place too much emphasis on the Feds September meeting.Jefferies strategist Zervos: The Feds policy is quite tight. The Feds balance sheet is no longer a "booster" for the economy.On August 20th, Melanie Debono of Panson Macro wrote in a report that the European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates again in September despite the lack of signs of easing eurozone inflation. Data showed that the eurozones annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in July, with core inflation also stable. Debono stated that with accelerating food inflation and the impact of base effects from oil prices, eurozone inflation is likely to rise again in the remaining months of the year. However, she noted that the ECB will consider volatile markets and a weak US economy as sufficient reason to cut interest rates to 1.75% at its September meeting. A decline in core inflation in August would further solidify this move.Indias natural gas production fell 3.2% year-on-year in July.On August 20th, Danni Hewson of AJ Bell stated in a report that high inflation in the UK may make investors and consumers more cautious. The UKs annual headline inflation rate was 3.8% in July, higher than the market forecast of 3.7%. Hewson noted that concerns about potential increases in energy prices and taxes in the UK in the autumn may be making many people cautious. She added: "With the July Retail Price Index (RPI) figure of 4.8%, the expected sharp increase of 5.8% in rail fares next year will put additional pressure on many household budgets."

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Have a Brutal Start to the Week

Jimmy Khan

May 10, 2022 10:39

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 gapped lower in the futures market to start the week on the back foot, and then just kept falling from there. As a result, the market seems to be on the verge of collapsing totally, but we still have the psychologically significant level of 4000 to contend with. The 4000 level will provide some support, but if we break down below it, the market is likely to go considerably more to the south.


In the interim, we could see a recovery, but that bounce will almost probably be sold into, so I'm watching for rallies that show indications of tiredness that I can profit from. I'm not interested in purchasing this market until the Federal Reserve alters its attitude on interest rates. That does not seem to be the case anytime soon, thus it is worth waiting for chances to become scarce once again.


If we break down below the 4000 mark, we will almost certainly see additional selling, with a sharp acceleration to the negative.


For me to be interested in purchasing, the market would have to break over the 4300 level, which we are nowhere close doing, and the Monday candlestick has made that much less probable than it was before. The S&P 500 will suffer as long as we are concerned about inflation and lack of growth in general. In addition, the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, which has been the only focus of Wall Street for well over a decade.