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According to CMEs "Fed Watch" on August 19th, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 13.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 86.1%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 6.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 47.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 46%. ZTO Express (ZTO.N) reported a net profit of RMB 1.9646 billion in the second quarter, while revenue for the company was RMB 11.8318 billion in the second quarter.On August 20, officials said that NATO military leaders, including senior US military generals, planned to hold an online video conference on Wednesday to discuss the Ukraine issue. US President Trump previously stated that European allies hope to send ground troops to ensure Ukraines security and ruled out the possibility of US ground troops entering Ukraine, but said that the US may provide air support. "As diplomatic efforts to ensure peace in Ukraine progress, I look forward to hearing the latest views on the current security environment," wrote Italian Admiral Dragon, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee. Dragon said he will chair the video conference. The US Supreme Commander in Europe and NATOs senior military commander, Glickevich, is expected to brief the other military leaders.On August 20, traders are pouring into a specific options bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points next month. Since the beginning of the month, there has been strong demand for positions related to the overnight secured financing rate (SOFR), which is closely related to policy expectations. This week, traders have increased their bets again, and open interest in contracts for a 50 basis point rate cut has surged. In a few days, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a key speech at Jackson Hole. Previously, inflation data released by the United States exceeded expectations, causing some traders to lower their expectations for rate cuts. Despite a short-term pullback, traders still seem to be convinced that there will be a rate cut next month. On Tuesday, U.S. Treasuries ended a three-day sell-off, and yields on Treasury bonds of all maturities fell. "As the market prepares for Powells speech, the biggest risk facing U.S. Treasuries is that the Fed Chairman chooses to pour cold water on the widely expected September rate cut," said Ian Lingen, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets.The discussions between Israel and Syria focused on de-escalation and non-interference in Syrias internal affairs. The talks between Syria and Israel are being held under the mediation of the United States.

S&P 500 Choppy Ahead of the FOMC Press Conference

Skylar Shaw

May 05, 2022 10:37

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 first attempted to advance during Wednesday's futures market trading session, and it seems that the 4200 level above will continue to act as a bit of barrier. If we can break through the 4200 mark, we'll most likely target the 4300 level. 


The 4300 level is a big, round number with psychological significance. That is a major barrier, and breaching over it would impact the market's general attitude, as it would continue to confirm the enormous hammer that we established throughout the trading session on Monday.


If we break below the bottom of the hammer from Monday's session, we'll most likely target the 4000 handle. Because of the headline noise, the 4000 level underneath it will get a lot of attention, but I believe we will begin to accelerate to the downside at that point. Whatever the case may be, I believe a lot of it boils down to what the Federal Reserve says, and maybe more significantly, how the market interprets it.


Because we will have just completed what is expected to be the largest event for the market this month, the market is likely to experience a strong and impulsive move at this moment. Regardless, there are clearly many fears out there, and unless Jerome Powell can soothe the market jitters, things might become nasty very quickly.

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