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Russia Cancels Ukraine Grain Deal; Wheat Futures Rise 6%

Charlie Brooks

Nov 01, 2022 15:01

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Following Russia's departure from a UN-sponsored agreement to protect Ukrainian exports over the Black Sea, European wheat futures rose over 6% on Monday.


Front-month wheat on the CME's computerized trading platform peaked at $889 per bushel before falling to $878.90 at 04:50 ET (08:50 GMT).


Russia withdrew from the summer agreement with Turkey after Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol over the weekend.


Ukraine has moved almost 9 million tons of agricultural products from its ports since the deal took effect three months ago, affecting the global market's equilibrium. Russia and Ukraine exported over 30% of global grain in 2012, and their dispute threatened supplies to some of the world's poorest nations.


Since talks of an agreement began, worldwide prices for wheat, corn, sunflower seeds, and oil have dropped by almost 30%, and the pact's suspension might reverse this.


In a morning note to clients, Saxo Bank strategist Ole Hansen noted that the suspension comes at an awkward time for markets: according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers have placed increasingly large bets on falling grain prices in recent weeks, with net short positioning in Chicago wheat futures reaching a 28-month high in the week ending on Tuesday.


US Soybean Futures increased 0.6% and Corn Futures rose 2.8% to $698.75 per bushel, a two-week high.


Ukraine's capacity to attack Russia's fleet at its home base embarrasses the Kremlin, which has already lost the battlefield to Kyiv. Using unverified drone footage, Ukrainian networks claimed the strike severely damaged the ship Admiral Makarov. Since Ukrainian missiles sank the Moskva in April, the frigate has led the Black Sea Fleet.

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