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On December 17th, the British government announced in a statement that it would begin negotiations with the European Union on electricity market integration. London further noted that progress in these negotiations could reduce electricity costs for British citizens. The British government commented, "Closer electricity cooperation will bring real benefits to businesses and consumers across the UK, boost investment in the North Sea region, and strengthen energy security." Both sides also "set a deadline next year for reaching a food and beverage trade agreement and carbon market interconnection" before the 2026 UK-EU summit.Market news: Mexico has lifted tariffs on imports of ammonium sulfate from the United States.December 17th - Traders are increasingly inclined to believe that the rate-cutting cycle by European central banks has largely ended. Money markets indicate that the European Central Bank, the Swedish central bank, and the Norwegian central bank are expected to keep rates unchanged at their meetings tomorrow and maintain broadly stable rates until the end of 2026. Even the Bank of England, which is expected to cut rates on Thursday, is only fully priced in one more rate cut next year, despite weaker inflation data released on Wednesday increasing the likelihood of another cut. This contrasts sharply with market sentiment earlier this year, when the market widely expected European central banks to cut rates significantly by 2026. Similarly, the Swiss National Bank, which previously led the way in rate cuts and lowered rates multiple times, has paused its rate cuts, and rates are now at zero. "Many of these countries have already cut rates multiple times – policy rates are no longer tightening," said Mike Riedel, a fund manager at Fidelity International. "The most notable change in interest rates over the past month is that some central banks that previously led the rate cuts are now expected to raise rates, rather than continue cutting them."Preliminary plans indicate that Angola will load 29 tankers of crude oil in February, compared to 30 tankers planned for January.On December 17th, Ukraines top military commander, Sergei Syrsky, stated on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had taken control of nearly 90% of the northeastern town of Kupyansk. This came days after the Ukrainian president declared a victory for Ukrainian forces against Russian troops in Kupyansk. "Thanks to active search and strike operations, we have successfully driven [Russian troops] out of Kupyansk and taken control of nearly 90% of the towns territory," Syrsky wrote.

Rupiah Rebounds Again Above $14,500 Amid Disappointing Indonesia Retail Sales

Alina Haynes

Jun 10, 2022 14:20

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USD/IDR pares weekly gains at $14,570 despite Indonesia Retail Sales falling in April, according to Friday's data. The current weakening in the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) pair may be attributable to the broad dollar retreat ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May.

 

According to the most recent report from Bank Indonesia, the nation's Retail Sales slowed to 8.5% in April, down from 9.3% in the previous report.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) pares its largest daily advances in a week due to apprehension around the release of vital inflation data.

 

Notably, however, fresh covid worries in China owing to the restoration of activity limitations in Shanghai and Beijing threaten Asian market mood. "Only ten days after a citywide lockdown was lifted, Shanghai's citizens will be subjected to an unexpected round of COVID-19 testing this weekend, unnerving locals and increasing fears about the impact on business," said Reuters.

 

On a larger scale, growing worries of faster/heavier rate rises and their negative economic ramifications appear to be weighing on the performance of the market as of late. Among the additional reasons that challenge the USD/IDR bears are the escalating fears about inflation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

 

Moving forward, it will be crucial to monitor the US CPI, which is anticipated to remain unchanged at roughly 8.5% YoY, since the White House has previously predicted a higher number, which might remember USD/IDR bulls.

 

Technical Evaluation

 

Despite the most recent dip, USD/IDR maintains the early week's comeback from the 100-day simple moving average (about $14,420 at press time), which keeps purchasers optimistic.