Rupiah Rebounds Again Above $14,500 Amid Disappointing Indonesia Retail Sales

USD/IDR pares weekly gains at $14,570 despite Indonesia Retail Sales falling in April, according to Friday's data. The current weakening in the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) pair may be attributable to the broad dollar retreat ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May.

According to the most recent report from Bank Indonesia, the nation's Retail Sales slowed to 8.5% in April, down from 9.3% in the previous report.

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) pares its largest daily advances in a week due to apprehension around the release of vital inflation data.

Notably, however, fresh covid worries in China owing to the restoration of activity limitations in Shanghai and Beijing threaten Asian market mood. "Only ten days after a citywide lockdown was lifted, Shanghai's citizens will be subjected to an unexpected round of COVID-19 testing this weekend, unnerving locals and increasing fears about the impact on business," said Reuters.

On a larger scale, growing worries of faster/heavier rate rises and their negative economic ramifications appear to be weighing on the performance of the market as of late. Among the additional reasons that challenge the USD/IDR bears are the escalating fears about inflation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Moving forward, it will be crucial to monitor the US CPI, which is anticipated to remain unchanged at roughly 8.5% YoY, since the White House has previously predicted a higher number, which might remember USD/IDR bulls.

Technical Evaluation

Despite the most recent dip, USD/IDR maintains the early week's comeback from the 100-day simple moving average (about $14,420 at press time), which keeps purchasers optimistic.