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Gold
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Real-time News
Goldman Sachs: We expect Persian Gulf oil exports to recover to pre-war levels by the end of July, up from the previous forecast of the end of August.Interest Rate Hike Expectations: 1. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at this meeting, which is in line with consensus and market pricing. The central bank will then maintain a pace of approximately one rate hike every six months. 2. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this week, with another rate hike later this year. Given that the 25 basis point rate hike has been fully priced in by the market, this move alone is unlikely to reverse the yens depreciation trend. 3. State Street: Expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at this meeting, raising them to the psychologically key level of 1.0%. The central bank may hint at a second rate hike this year. 4. Oxford Economics: The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in June rather than July. A delay in the rate hike would disappoint financial markets and could lead to further yen depreciation. 5. Mizuho Bank: The probability of a rate hike at this meeting is high. The baseline scenario is that the central bank will subsequently raise rates approximately every six months. 6. Reuters Survey: 94% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate to 1.00% in June and to raise it to 1.25% in the fourth quarter. 7. Former Chief Economist of the Bank of Japan, Seisaku Kameda: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates at this meeting, and the US-Iran peace agreement is not expected to change the expectation of two rate hikes this year. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is expected to reiterate the central banks determination to continue raising rates, but will avoid giving a clear hint about the timing of the next rate hike. QT Expectations: 1. Mizuho Bank: The Bank of Japan is expected to conduct a mid-term assessment of its bond-buying program at this meeting, and may maintain the current reduction plan until January to March next year; from April to June and beyond, it may suspend or slow down the reduction of monthly bond purchases. 2. Deutsche Securities: If the Bank of Japan decides to stop reducing the monthly bond purchase program, it must provide a full explanation. If the Bank of Japan decides to raise interest rates and stop reducing bond purchases at the same time, regardless of its true intentions, the market and the public may interpret it as a "political deal" reached with the government. Other Expectations: 1. Bank of America: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October this year, followed by further rate hikes in March and July 2027, raising the terminal interest rate to 1.75% by the end of 2027.On June 16th, JPMorgan Chase released a research report analyzing Chinas large-scale AI model industry. The report points out that as the monetization path for large models converges towards enterprise workflows, API consumption, code, and intelligent agents, investors will increasingly focus on the actual capabilities, task completion rates, and pricing power of the models. Given that AI adoption demand still exceeds inference computing power supply, if developers quickly withdraw from premium pricing, it reflects a lack of market recognition of their model capability improvements. The bank is relatively optimistic about Zhipu (02513.HK) within the sector, reiterating its "Overweight" rating. The bank is optimistic about Zhipu AIs pricing power, noting that its ability to double API prices this year while maintaining continuous business growth fully validates the markets recognition of its large-scale model value. The bank raised its revenue forecasts for Zhipu AI by 26% to 42% for fiscal years 2026 to 2030, while lowering its adjusted net loss forecast, significantly increasing its target price from HK$950 to HK$1400.On June 16, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the equipment manufacturing industry has played a significant supporting role in industrial production, becoming a crucial force driving accelerated industrial growth. In May, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.5% year-on-year, contributing nearly 80% to the growth of the added value of industries above a designated size.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, caustic soda (100% purity) production in May was 3.9 million tons, up 2.2% year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production of caustic soda (100% purity) was 19.85 million tons, up 5.1% year-on-year.
