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Market research and intelligence firm IIR: Middle Eastern oil refineries have reduced refining capacity by approximately 1.9 million barrels per day.On March 10th, Bank of America stated in a report that while the market currently views rising oil prices as a greater threat to inflation, supply shocks actually pose a risk to both sides of the Federal Reserves dual mandate. The report points out that monetary policy tends to tighten only when consumer demand is strong enough and economic activity can withstand supply shocks, allowing the Fed to focus on inflation as it did during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the bank notes that at that time, economic demand was significantly stronger (unemployment rate at 4%, core PCE inflation exceeding 5%, non-farm payrolls increasing by 500,000 per month, and consumers still having substantial stimulus funds). Currently, job growth is slower, inflation is moderately high, and fiscal stimulus is more limited. The bank believes that if the oil price shock persists, it will create conditions for the Fed to implement a more accommodative monetary policy.Iraq says it is trying to resume Kirkuk crude oil shipments, and Iraq’s daily oil production has fallen to 1.2 million barrels.Market news: U.S. Senate Democrats warned that Treasury Secretary Bessenters term as acting IRS commissioner has expired.On March 10th, Morgan Stanleys Bruna Skarica stated in a report that the Bank of England may cut interest rates in April if global energy supply disruptions are resolved in the near future. The Middle East war and rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns, leading to lower market expectations for a March rate cut by the Bank of England. LSEG data shows that the money market currently prices in a 15% probability of a March rate cut and a 36% probability of a rate cut in April. Morgan Stanley previously predicted rate cuts in March, July, and November, but has now revised its forecast to April, November, and February of the following year, provided that energy supply disruptions are not prolonged.

Predictions for the Silver Market: A Turbulent Time Ahead

Alina Haynes

Jul 22, 2022 14:58

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Silver fell during Thursday's trading session, but it recovered after the European Central Bank raised interest rates, which placed downward pressure on the US dollar. I believe it is only a matter of time until sellers re-enter the market and force this commodity lower since this is a market that continues to witness a lot of noisy activity. However, there are many grounds to believe that silver's value will decline below that of the dollar.

 

Silver's demand is expected to remain weak due to low consumer demand. At this point, I believe it is best to "fade the rise," since it will likely be just a matter of time until sellers re-enter the market. We're probably going to break up soon, and the $20 level above should provide a lot of resistance on the way up.

 

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It's conceivable that sellers will enter the market even if we break over the $20 level, and then the 50 Day EMA will come into play. The 50-day moving average (MA) is currently at $20.73, and it's falling. In the end, I believe that many individuals will rush into this market as soon as it shows indications of tiredness. If the price drops below the hammer's base, it would be reasonable to assume that the $15 support level will be quickly breached.


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