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On September 2nd, Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) stated that a September rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is a foregone conclusion. The RBNZ is expected to hint at further rate hikes before the cash rate reaches or exceeds the neutral level, with a peak of approximately 3.5%. However, BNZs internal view is that the RBNZ will ultimately raise rates by 25 basis points at each meeting, reaching 4.0% by May 2027. Downside risks to the economy are more prominent, including a potential El Niño-induced recession, election-related delays in recovery, and a broader global asset price correction. On the upside, structural inflationary pressures may continue to accumulate regardless of the RBNZs response. BNZs core view stems from the RBNZs July statement that "further reduction in monetary stimulus may still be necessary" to bring inflation back to target. BNZ expects inflation to remain above the target range until mid-2027, forecasting an annual CPI of 3.7% for the September quarter, significantly higher than the RBNZs own forecast of 3.3%.On Wednesday, September 2, the Hang Seng Index opened down 48.91 points, or 0.19%, at 25,280.82; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened down 18.66 points, or 0.41%, at 4,532.22; the H-share Index opened down 15.39 points, or 0.18%, at 8,447.25; and the Red Chip Index opened down 8.28 points, or 0.2%, at 4,129.92.Hong Kong stocks opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.19% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.41%. Biopharmaceutical stocks led the gains, while gold stocks fell sharply. Zijin Mining International (02259.HK) fell more than 4%.On September 2nd, the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Managements "Current Account +" was 1.1340%, and the lowest was 0.7020%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pays "Lingqian Tong" was 1.1010%, and the lowest was 0.8700%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipays "Yuebao" was 1.0650%, and the lowest was 0.8690%.September 2nd - ASB Bank of New Zealand stated that with financial markets having almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, there is limited room for a hawkish surprise in the decision itself. The ASB expects at least one more rate hike before the end of the year, with a peak rate of around 3.3%, slightly below current market pricing. If this occurs as expected, it could lead to a mildly dovish repricing at the front end of the New Zealand yield curve, putting some pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The ASB also noted that tightening financial conditions (including a stronger trade-weighted index and rising swap rates) are a theme the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cite, weakening the case for a particularly hawkish statement. Given the two-way risks to the medium-term inflation outlook, currency and interest rate markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to New Zealand data in the coming months, regardless of Wednesdays outcome.

Predictions for the Silver Market: A Turbulent Time Ahead

Alina Haynes

Jul 22, 2022 14:58

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Silver fell during Thursday's trading session, but it recovered after the European Central Bank raised interest rates, which placed downward pressure on the US dollar. I believe it is only a matter of time until sellers re-enter the market and force this commodity lower since this is a market that continues to witness a lot of noisy activity. However, there are many grounds to believe that silver's value will decline below that of the dollar.

 

Silver's demand is expected to remain weak due to low consumer demand. At this point, I believe it is best to "fade the rise," since it will likely be just a matter of time until sellers re-enter the market. We're probably going to break up soon, and the $20 level above should provide a lot of resistance on the way up.

 

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It's conceivable that sellers will enter the market even if we break over the $20 level, and then the 50 Day EMA will come into play. The 50-day moving average (MA) is currently at $20.73, and it's falling. In the end, I believe that many individuals will rush into this market as soon as it shows indications of tiredness. If the price drops below the hammer's base, it would be reasonable to assume that the $15 support level will be quickly breached.


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