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Real-time News
A survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday, August 7th, showed that Americans overall expectations for the job market improved in July, while their expectations for future inflation also declined. The survey showed that if unemployed, respondents believed they would find a new job, rising to 46.2%, the highest level this year. This improvement was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less, and those with household incomes below $50,000. Meanwhile, consumers expectations for inflation over the next year fell slightly to 3.6% from 3.7%. Inflation expectations for the next three and five years remained unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. However, consumers remain concerned about the overall labor market situation. The average probability of an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year has risen. This upward trend is prevalent across all age groups and income levels. Respondents also saw a slight increase in their perceived likelihood of losing their job within the next year, but it remains below the 12-month average.The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a warning to the forecasting market about the risks associated with American-style odds.New York Fed: July labor market expectations were mixed. Current and expected personal financial outlook improved in July.1. US non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, the first decline since February, compared to market expectations of an 80,000 increase. 2. The US unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% in July, the lowest level since June 2025, below the market median expectation of 4.2%. 3. US interest rate futures market pricing indicates that the expected rate hike by December is only 28 basis points, lower than the 32 basis points before the non-farm payroll data release. 4. Data released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported sales of 238,000 tons of soybeans to China, to be delivered in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 5. On the evening of July 7, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued a "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Citys Real Estate Policies," clarifying that the required years of social security or individual income tax payments for non-Beijing residents purchasing commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road have been reduced from "2 years" to "1 year." 6. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: I believe President Trump will not give Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh advice on interest rates. 7. According to the Globe and Mail, as negotiations intensify ahead of the US threat to impose a new round of tariffs, Canada and the US are discussing a potential agreement: Ottawa would agree to meet a series of trade demands put forward by the Trump administration in exchange for tariff reductions for some industries.The New York Fed: In July, the three-year inflation forecast remained unchanged at 3.3%; the five-year inflation forecast remained unchanged at 3%.
