• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On April 16, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun held a regular press conference. A Reuters reporter asked, "US President Trump said yesterday that he believes China will not stop buying Iranian oil. He also said he would impose sanctions on countries that buy Iranian oil. What is Chinas comment on this?" Guo Jiakun stated that China has consistently opposed illegal unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law and are not authorized by the UN Security Council.On April 16th, Suren Thiru, an economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants, stated that the unexpectedly strong growth in the UK in February would soon be overshadowed by the impact of the war with Iran. GDP grew by 0.5% that month, higher than the expected 0.2%. He said, "Given that the unexpectedly strong growth in February has been far outpaced by new energy and supply chain shocks, these figures are unlikely to alleviate stagflation concerns." This is expected to affect investment and consumer spending over the next year, thus dampening economic growth. Thiru indicated that the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being, as the squeeze on growth will suppress inflation.The Bank of Japan announced that it will hold a meeting of bond market participants from May 21 to 22.April 16th - According to the BBC, Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that the central bank is "not in a hurry" to make a decision on interest rate hikes in the face of the energy price shock caused by the war with Iran. He pointed out that rising oil and gas prices will certainly affect prices, but other factors make interest rate decisions "very, very difficult." Bailey said, "We are not in a hurry to make judgments on these things because there is a lot of uncertainty in this area, not only about how things will develop, but also how it will be transmitted to the UK economy." The IMF lowered its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, warning that if the war escalates and oil prices remain above $100 until 2027, the global economy may face the risk of recession, with the UK receiving the largest downward revision among large, wealthy economies.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Aid supplies to Ukraine should be delivered on time.

Outlook for the Australian Dollar: RBA Action Does Little to Boost AUD

Alina Haynes

May 09, 2022 10:27

Following rate decisions from the RBA and the Federal Reserve, the Australian Dollar oscillated erratically over the course of the week. Wednesday and Thursday saw daily AUD/USD movements of more than 2 percent in opposing directions.

 

The clear message for the Australian Dollar is that it remains susceptible to fluctuations in the US Dollar.

 

The core underpinnings of the Australian economy remain robust. Public and private debt levels are quite manageable. This week's announcement of the trade balance (+9.3 billion AUD) underlined the strength of exports. The unemployment rate is at an all-time low of 4 percent, and economic growth is robust.

 

As the US Dollar adjusts to a Federal Reserve that is finally tightening monetary policy at breakneck pace to rein in skyrocketing inflation, none of this matters for the AUD/USD.

 

While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates by 25 basis points (bp) on Tuesday, as anticipated in this column over a month ago, the Federal Reserve raised the stakes by 50 bp on Wednesday.

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively ruled out futures price increases of 75 basis points, causing the USD to weaken as the market had anticipated such increases.

 

The Dollar reversed course the following day after former Vice Chair Richard Clarida appeared to return to the super hawk position by stating, "Getting to neutral quickly will not be sufficient." AUD/USD was swept up in the turmoil.

 

The USD/CNY was permitted to fall to its lowest level since November 2020 prior to the weekend, which could have implications for the broader currency markets. If the currency of the second-largest economy in the world continues to erode against the US dollar, the dollar's strength may become even more widespread.

 

Consequently, the AUD/USD pair is in a vulnerable position as it trades near 18-month lows. The upcoming week will be dominated by Fed speakers. Any increase in hawkish rhetoric could lead to another jump in US Dollar strength, exposing AUD to losses.

 

The graph below illustrates the sensitivity of the Australian dollar to changes in the US dollar.

Index AUD/USD against US Dollar (DXY)

image.png