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On January 20th, Wang Changlin, Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that the central and western regions possess significant development potential and are a crucial force supporting Chinas stable and positive economic growth in the current and future periods. Regarding security, the central and western regions demonstrate their responsibility in consolidating national strategic security and play a particularly important role in safeguarding national food security, ecological security, energy resource security, and the security of industrial and supply chains. In promoting openness, the central and western regions, especially the western region, are moving from the periphery of openness to the forefront. Regarding promoting coordination, the central and western regions are accelerating efforts to address shortcomings in public service infrastructure, and peoples living standards are steadily improving. Going forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments and central and western provinces to consistently and deeply promote strategies such as the Western Development Strategy and the Rise of the Central Region, further transforming their potential advantages.On January 20th, Wang Renfei, Director of the Comprehensive Department of System Reform of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the synergy between reform and innovation policies will be strengthened. This includes synergistically advancing reforms of access factors and scenarios, improving market access systems, optimizing the market access environment for new business models and fields, deepening market-oriented allocation reforms of factors of production, and actively exploring allocation methods for new factors such as space, ocean, underground space, and spectrum, especially leveraging the role of scenarios, scarce resources, and new policy tools.On January 20th, Zhou Chen, Director of the Department of National Economic Comprehensive Affairs of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that increasing consumer income is a crucial aspect of boosting domestic demand. In accordance with the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, the NDRC will focus on three key integrations: First, integrating improving peoples livelihoods with promoting consumption. Currently, relevant departments are studying and formulating actions to stabilize employment, expand capacity, and improve quality, as well as plans to increase urban and rural residents income, with the aim of enhancing residents consumption capacity; second, integrating investment in goods with investment in people, striving to improve investment efficiency and promoting the two-way flow and mutual empowerment of material and human capital; and third, integrating policy support with reform and innovation.On January 20th, Wang Renfei, Director-General of the Department of System Reform at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that going forward, efforts will be made to enhance the coordination between reform and fiscal and financial policies. This year, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. Simultaneously, the coordination between reform and consumption and investment policies will be strengthened. Regarding consumption, efforts will begin with easing market access and optimizing supervision, further eliminating unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, establishing and improving management methods to adapt to new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in consumption.On January 20th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the implementation of the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the relevant situation regarding promoting a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan. The press conference stated that regarding the trade-in program for old consumer goods, illegal activities will be cracked down on, strict review will be enforced, and various illegal and irregular activities will be accurately identified. Strict price management will be implemented; any instances of fraudulent subsidy claims, price gouging followed by subsidies, etc., will be investigated, punished, exposed, and cracked down upon.

AUD/USD Falls towards 0.7070 but Gained around 0.15 Percent for the Week

Daniel Rogers

May 07, 2022 10:05

The AUD/USD snapped a streak of five consecutive weekly losses and is currently recording gains of 0.15 percent, as Wall Street closes in the red amid a pessimistic sentiment due to central bank tightening and investors reposition their portfolios after the US central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time in twenty years. As of this writing, the AUD/USD exchange rate is 0.7070.

 

Wall Street's losses ranged from 1.03 percent to 2.42 percent, bringing an end to a turbulent week characterized by three central banks tightening monetary policies as they scrambled to combat inflation as it approached their goal levels. In addition, the US Department of Labor stated that the US economy added 428K new jobs, above estimates, while the unemployment rate remained constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Aside from this, the US Dollar Index, a measurement of the greenback's value against a basket of six currencies, is currently up 0.11 percent to 103.658, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has touched a YTD high of approximately 3.131 percent.

 

The RBA and the Fed increased interest rates, but at a rate that favors the dollar.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stunned the markets with a 25-bps rate hike at the start of the week, the first since November 2010. Market participants anticipated a 15-bps hike, leaving rates at 0.25 percent, but the central bank maintained its 25-bps plan. In addition, the RBA began reducing the stimulus by allowing its portfolio of bonds to mature and dwindle.

 

As traders prepared for the Federal Reserve's meeting, the AUD/USD initially moved positively, but ran into solid resistance at 0.7147.

 

As predicted by the majority of analysts, the Federal Reserve (Fed) increased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 50 basis points to 1 percent on Wednesday and announced a quantitative tightening of $47.5 billion in the first three months, followed by a monthly ceiling of $95 billion.

 

At his news conference, Fed Chair Powell stated that the Fed is not actively considering rises of 75 basis points. He added that 50-bps increases will be "on the table" at the next two FOMC meetings "if we see what we anticipate to see."

 

The AUD/USD immediately soared over the R1 daily pivot around 0.7150, surging sharply towards the R3 pivot point around 0.7250, and recouping some of the previous week's losses upon the release of the news.

 

In spite of this, Wednesday's bounce in global markets was interpreted as a sign of relief that a bigger Fed rate hike, likely 75 basis points, brought by Fed's St. Louis President Bullard did not occur. On Thursday, however, market participants reversed course, selling equities, fleeing to safe-haven assets, and boosting the USD, JPY, and CHF.

 

Consequently, after both central banks' decisions are in the rearview mirror, the AUD/USD may decline in the near to medium term, as money market futures anticipate the FFR to be around 2 percent by the summer, in contrast to the RBA's cash rate, which is anticipated to be around 0.85 percent.

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