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The Federation of Indian Automobile Dealers Association (FADA): Passenger car retail sales in June increased by 4.84% year-on-year, and the country is cautiously optimistic about the short-term outlook. However, it is necessary to remain vigilant considering the shortage of rare earths, geopolitical tensions and the spillover effects of US tariffs.On July 7, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may be temporarily suspending its one-year interest rate cut cycle. Most economists predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged this week, while sending dovish signals to assess the effectiveness of economic recovery. The bank recently stated that interest rates have entered a neutral range, downplaying the urgency of further interest rate cuts and hinting that it may adopt a quarterly interest rate cut rhythm in the future, rather than adjusting at every policy meeting. It is worth noting that there were differences of opinion at the last interest rate meeting. Given that the current economic recovery momentum is still unstable, further interest rate cuts are still possible this year.Market News: Trump welcomed Netanyahu and expressed optimism about reaching an Israel-Hamas agreement "this week."On July 7, the 27th Senate election of the Japanese Diet was scheduled for voting on the 20th. The latest opinion poll conducted by Kyodo News from the 5th to the 6th showed that the opposition camp was more popular than the ruling coalition, and nearly half of the respondents hoped that the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party would not achieve the goal of more than half of the seats. The Japanese Senate is responsible for legislative review and government supervision. It has 248 seats. The term of office of members is six years, and half of them are re-elected every three years. This election will focus on 125 seats. In addition to 74 constituency seats and 50 proportional representation seats, there is also 1 by-election seat. According to Japanese media, the results of this Senate election will determine the fate of Shigeru Ishibas cabinet. If the ruling coalition wins less than 50 seats, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may resign or reorganize the ruling coalition.On July 7, Goldman Sachs said it expects the eight OPEC+ members to increase their oil production quotas by 550,000 barrels per day in September, thereby completely canceling the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. OPEC+ hopes to restore idle production capacity to normal as global oil demand shows resilience. Goldman Sachs said: "The decision to accelerate the pace of production increases announced on Saturday strengthens our confidence. We have pointed out since last summer that OPEC+ will shift to a more long-term balanced strategy, focusing on normalizing idle production capacity and market share, supporting internal cohesion, and strategically restricting US shale oil supply." Goldman Sachs expects that the crude oil production of the eight OPEC+ members will increase by 1.67 million barrels per day from March to September to 33.2 million barrels per day, of which Saudi Arabia accounts for more than 60% of the increase.

Oil Falls 2.5 Percent As U.S. Refiners Ramp Up Supply, Equities Slump

Charlie Brooks

May 19, 2022 10:06

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Oil prices declined by 2.5 percent on Wednesday, reversing early gains, as traders became less concerned about a supply bottleneck after government data revealed that U.S. refiners increased output, and as crude futures followed Wall Street lower.


Brent crude finished at $109.11 a barrel, down $2.82, or 2.5%. The price per barrel of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $2.81, or 2.5%, to $109.59.


According to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, both benchmarks surrendered $2 to $3 a barrel in early gains as a result of a change in risk sentiment when equities markets fell.


A day after dipping beneath the U.S. benchmark for the first time since May 2020, Brent remained at an extraordinary discount to WTI. Traders and experts noted robust export demand and diminishing crude inventories in the U.S.


In response to tight product inventories and near-record exports, which have pushed U.S. diesel and gasoline prices to record highs, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week, according to government data. This unexpected decline occurred as refiners increased output in response to tight product inventories. 


Two days after reaching a record high, gasoline prices in the United States plummeted 5%.


On both the East Coast and Gulf Coast, capacity utilization exceeded 95%, bringing refineries close to their maximum operating rates.


John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, stated, "While the data appeared to be incredibly bullish, refiners are racing to put more refined products on the market... there is certainly a refiner's response."


In response to fears about economic growth and inflation, the dollar rose and global markets declined.


Reports that the United States intends to ease sanctions against Venezuela and allow Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) to discuss oil licenses with state producer PDVSA further contributed to the bearish sentiment.


Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, stated, "The assumption that further Venezuelan supply could enter the market, coupled with the equities markets, is causing some profit taking in a much-needed technical correction in oil."


Some diplomats anticipate agreement on a phased ban at a conference at the end of May, despite the European Union's inability to convince Hungary to waive its veto on a proposed oil embargo against Russia.


Continuing supply concerns supported the market. As a result of Western sanctions, Russian crude output in April decreased by over 9 percent compared to the previous month, an internal OPEC+ study revealed on Tuesday.


On the demand side, predictions of additional lockdown easing in China increased recovery optimism. According to reports, authorities permitted 864 financial institutions in Shanghai to restart operations, and China has loosened COVID test requirements for U.S. and other passengers.