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December 8th - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its final interest rate decision of the year on Tuesday, with the market expecting no rate adjustment. Nevertheless, this will remain one of the most closely watched meetings of the year. A wealth of data from the RBA indicates strong demand, rising inflation risks, and the economy nearing its capacity limits, making a hawkish signal highly likely. Economists from some major banks have already begun calculating that the RBA may tighten monetary policy in February next year after receiving fourth-quarter inflation data.On December 8th, the Election Committee of the 8th Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) announced the results of the functional constituency elections. Thirty seats were elected from 28 functional constituencies, and 30 members were elected as new Legislative Council members from these constituencies. The new Legislative Council will consist of 90 members, including 40 elected by the Election Committee, 30 elected from functional constituencies, and 20 elected by geographical constituencies. Earlier on the 8th, the list of the 40 newly elected Legislative Council members from the Election Committee had already been published. The list of the 20 members elected by geographical constituencies is expected to be announced on the same day. The term of the 8th Legislative Council of the HKSAR will begin on January 1, 2026, and will be four years.December 8th - Market speculation persists that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates this month, but participants remain betting on a continued weakening of the yen. Traders at Bank of America, Nomura Holdings, and RBC Capital Markets say investor positioning reflects this bet. Citigroups "pain index" for the yen remains deep in negative territory, indicating continued negative sentiment towards the yen. Even with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinting at a possible imminent rate hike and the BOJ reportedly preparing to raise rates in December unless there is a major shock to the economy or financial markets, investors remain bearish on the yen. This is because even if the BOJ takes action, Japanese yields are still expected to be significantly lower than those in the US, which is more favorable for the dollar. Ivan Stamenovich, head of G-10 currency trading for Asia Pacific at Bank of America, said, "Positioning remains geared towards betting on the dollar to continue rising against the yen until the end of the year, and this trend is unlikely to change unless the BOJ delivers a real surprise." He added that Uedas hawkish comments sparked discussion about the currency pair, but market sentiment has not fundamentally changed.On December 8th, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Zamir stated on the 7th that the withdrawal line drawn by the Israeli military under the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, known as the "Yellow Line," is the "new border" of the Gaza Strip. During an inspection of the Gaza Strip that day, Zamir said that the "Yellow Line" is the "new border" of the Gaza Strip, serving as both Israels forward defensive line and the boundary for Israeli military operations. Israel maintains operational control over large areas of the Gaza Strip and will continue to hold these lines. According to the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, the area outside the "Yellow Line" remains under Israeli control, and Israeli troops will no longer be stationed or conducting operations within the "Yellow Line."Anson Resources of Australia and Nusano of the United States have signed a lithium supply agreement.

Oil Falls 2.5 Percent As U.S. Refiners Ramp Up Supply, Equities Slump

Charlie Brooks

May 19, 2022 10:06

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Oil prices declined by 2.5 percent on Wednesday, reversing early gains, as traders became less concerned about a supply bottleneck after government data revealed that U.S. refiners increased output, and as crude futures followed Wall Street lower.


Brent crude finished at $109.11 a barrel, down $2.82, or 2.5%. The price per barrel of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $2.81, or 2.5%, to $109.59.


According to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, both benchmarks surrendered $2 to $3 a barrel in early gains as a result of a change in risk sentiment when equities markets fell.


A day after dipping beneath the U.S. benchmark for the first time since May 2020, Brent remained at an extraordinary discount to WTI. Traders and experts noted robust export demand and diminishing crude inventories in the U.S.


In response to tight product inventories and near-record exports, which have pushed U.S. diesel and gasoline prices to record highs, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week, according to government data. This unexpected decline occurred as refiners increased output in response to tight product inventories. 


Two days after reaching a record high, gasoline prices in the United States plummeted 5%.


On both the East Coast and Gulf Coast, capacity utilization exceeded 95%, bringing refineries close to their maximum operating rates.


John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, stated, "While the data appeared to be incredibly bullish, refiners are racing to put more refined products on the market... there is certainly a refiner's response."


In response to fears about economic growth and inflation, the dollar rose and global markets declined.


Reports that the United States intends to ease sanctions against Venezuela and allow Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) to discuss oil licenses with state producer PDVSA further contributed to the bearish sentiment.


Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, stated, "The assumption that further Venezuelan supply could enter the market, coupled with the equities markets, is causing some profit taking in a much-needed technical correction in oil."


Some diplomats anticipate agreement on a phased ban at a conference at the end of May, despite the European Union's inability to convince Hungary to waive its veto on a proposed oil embargo against Russia.


Continuing supply concerns supported the market. As a result of Western sanctions, Russian crude output in April decreased by over 9 percent compared to the previous month, an internal OPEC+ study revealed on Tuesday.


On the demand side, predictions of additional lockdown easing in China increased recovery optimism. According to reports, authorities permitted 864 financial institutions in Shanghai to restart operations, and China has loosened COVID test requirements for U.S. and other passengers.