OPEC+ has no intention of expanding production, Goldman Sachs expects to hit US$90 within this year

OPEC+ agreed on Monday (October 4) to maintain the existing gradual increase in production plan, driving the price of US crude oil to a 7-year high, and Brent crude oil to a 3-year high.


Prior to the ministerial meeting on Monday, an OPEC+ source had stated that the organization was under pressure to accelerate production, but he added, “We are afraid of the fourth wave of COVID-19 and no one wants to take any major measures.”

At today’s ministerial meeting, OPEC+ member states agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from November according to the established plan. OPEC+ is still implementing 5.8 million barrels per day production reduction measures, but plans to increase production by 2022. Gradually withdraw the production reduction agreement before April.

The news of maintaining the existing production increase plan boosted oil prices on Monday. U.S. crude oil hit a new high since November 2014, and Brent crude oil hit a new high since October 2018.

(U.S. crude oil monthly chart)

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the meeting that he will pay close attention to how the market balances, and said that crude oil demand will generally decline in the fourth quarter of each year.

Peter McNally, head of Third Bridge's industrial and materials global department, said that OPEC+'s production policy has been the reason for the rapid decline in inventories in the past 15 months. At the peak in June last year, OECD crude oil and refined oil inventories were an average of 9% higher than their five-year season, but by the end of the summer of this year, inventories were more than 6% below normal levels.

At the same time, other sources of supply have been slow to respond to the rise in crude oil prices. Oil production was affected by Hurricane Ida in late August, but more importantly, US producers have been hesitant to increase drilling activities in all regions. So overall, the result is tepid supply growth.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday that as the price of natural gas soared, utility power stations began to switch to oil production. Later this year, the daily demand for crude oil will increase by 650,000 barrels, and the international crude oil price looks at US$90.

Due to the worsening of the global natural gas crisis, natural gas prices have soared to historical highs. Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin predicts that the power-to-fuel conversion will increase the demand and price of crude oil. The bank expects Brent crude oil futures to reach 90 per barrel by the end of this year. Dollar.

The European energy crisis is spreading across the world, increasing the potential shortages in some countries. Energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that by the end of this year, the winter crisis may increase daily demand for crude oil by nearly 1 million barrels. Saudi Aramco, the world's largest crude oil exporter, also said on Monday that it has seen daily crude oil consumption increase by 500,000 barrels.

Courvalin also said that when the natural gas is used up every winter near the beginning of spring, there will be a peak in oil combustion. Globally, if the winter is very cold, oil demand can easily reach 1 to 2 million barrels per day.

Courvalin said that this year's natural gas and oil inventories are tight, but oil has more idle production capacity than natural gas. The oil industry is gradually recovering from the huge loss last year, and they have expressed their unwillingness to increase production and give priority to debt repayment.