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U.S. sources say that U.S. Marines opened fire on protesters at the U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, last Sunday.Futures analyst Guangda Futures reports: On March 2nd, COMEX gold opened higher and trended upwards, before a sharp sell-off at the close, ending slightly higher at $5335.9 per ounce, a gain of 1.68%. Domestic SHFE gold opened higher but then fell in the night session, closing at 1184.90 yuan per gram, a gain of 1.14%. 1. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 52.4 in February, expanding for the second consecutive month, but the input price index surged to 70.5, a near four-year high. Its worth noting that this data reflects market conditions prior to the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran this weekend. Afterwards, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz nearly ceased, and international oil prices recorded their largest single-day increase since the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022 on Monday, meaning that price pressure may continue to rise. Given that tariffs and geopolitical conflicts are creating a persistent undercurrent of inflation, manufacturers may be forced to pass on costs to consumers, squeezing the Federal Reserves room for interest rate cuts. Last night, the US dollar index rose by more than 1%, and precious metals rose and then fell back. 2. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict escalated rapidly over the weekend. The joint US-Israel assassination attempt plunged Iran into regime chaos, unexpectedly reigniting geopolitical risks and initially reflecting some safe-haven demand. However, as the conflict progressed, the market gradually withdrew from this safe-haven panic, shifting towards concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a rebound in oil prices due to disruptions in oil production facilities, and renewed expectations of global inflation. This had a mixed impact on gold. Inflation expectations are generally favorable for gold prices, but the expectation of a Fed rate cut and further easing has been further delayed. Investors should continue to closely monitor the US-Iran situation. Whether the conflict slows down or escalates further will determine the subsequent trend of gold prices. Strategically, timing is more important than directional choice; avoid chasing highs excessively. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Japans energy minister stated that the suspension of Qatars liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations will not immediately affect the countrys energy supply.The main Shanghai silver futures contract plunged in the short term, falling more than 4.00% intraday, and is currently trading at 22,888.00 yuan/kg.March 3 - Oil prices rose in early Asian trading due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the persistent high risk of supply disruptions. Kerstin Hottner, head of commodities at Vontobel, stated, "The ongoing military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran has caused turmoil in the global energy market. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global energy trade, has effectively ceased operation due to the conflict. As the situation develops, the duration and intensity of the conflict will be key factors shaping the energy landscape in the short term."

Gold trading strategy on October 5: The Fed's reduction is imminent, and the bullish rally will be tested

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

On Tuesday (October 5), spot gold fell sharply, and the technical situation of gold was too much. However, under the background of the Fed's shrinking, the short-term trend is difficult to judge. Investors are advised to continue to wait and see.


Daily level: The price of gold has risen for the previous three consecutive times and has crossed the important resistance of the downward trend line. However, the sharp decline during the Asian session has clouded the further rise of gold prices.

From a technical point of view, MACD Golden Cross and RSI are operating around 50, which also shows that the overall pattern is too large. However, under the background of the upcoming reduction of QE by the Federal Reserve in November, the space above gold may be limited.

The short-term gold price trend is mixed, and the direction is not very clear. It is recommended that investors continue to wait and see.

The initial resistance above focuses on the 38.2% retracement at 1764.27, and further attention is paid to the 50% retracement at 1777.59 and the 50-day moving average at 1772.97.

The initial support below focuses on the 10-day moving average of 1751.68, and further attention to the low of 1738.12 on September 23 and the low of 1721.76 on September 29.

(Spot gold daily chart)

Resistance levels: 1764.27; 177.59; 1792.97
Support levels: 1751.68; 1738.12; 1721.76

Short-term operation advice: wait and see first

GMT+8 14:01, spot gold was quoted at US$1757.59 per ounce.