Natural Gas Price Futures (NG) Technical Analysis — Seasonal Temperatures Capping Gains from July 16-19

Natural gas futures are on the rise early Wednesday morning after hitting their lowest level since March 24 during the previous session. After overnight weather projections predicted reprieve from the unusually hot weather that has afflicted the country for over a month, vendors resumed their efforts yesterday.

Natural gas futures for August are trading at $5.632, up $0.109 or 1.97 percent as of 01:16 GMT. Tuesday's closing price for the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) was $18.65, down $0.66 or 3.42 percent.

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According to NatGasWeather, the major American and European weather models continued to indicate a strong head during the first part of the month, however a cooling trend may be on the way.

NatGasWeather forecasts scorching temperatures from July 15-16, followed by a "seasonal or neutral" weather from July 16-19. Traders appear to be concentrating on the period from July 16-19. This might determine the market's fate this week.

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is to the downside. A move over $5,325.00 will indicate a return of the downward trend. A move over $6.833 would indicate a transition to an upward trend.

The principal price range is $3.528 to $9.645. Currently, the market is trading on the weak side of its retracement zone between $5.865 and $6.587, which represents resistance. The minor range is between $6.833 and $5.25. Its pivot at $6,079 represents added resistance.

At $5.385, the market is now sitting slightly over a prior low point. If the selling pressure persists and this level is decisively broken, then a rapid decline to the March 9 major low around $4.610 is likely to commence.

Overcoming the long-term Fibonacci level at $5.865 will be the first indication of a bottom on the upswing. A persistent advance over the minor pivot at $6.079 would suggest that short-covering is gaining strength. This may result in a challenge of the long-term 50% level at $6.587.