EUR/USD
1.15683
1.338%
Gold
3357.10
2.040%
Oil
66.620
-3.233%
USD/JPY
147.431
-2.194%
GBP/USD
1.32607
0.406%
GBP/JPY
195.508
-1.753%
Real-time News
On August 3rd, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates again next Thursday, as tax increases and weak consumer confidence are weighing on the UK economy and prompting businesses to slow hiring. The market generally expects the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee to cut the base rate by 25 basis points to 4%, continuing its quarterly rate-cutting strategy. In stark contrast to the Federal Reserves cautious stance in keeping interest rates unchanged, the Bank of England chose to ignore the fastest inflation growth in 17 months and instead focus on concerns about economic growth. This follows two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction and a weakening job market since the spring. The market is also closely watching the Bank of Englands plans to reduce its holdings of government bonds. Recent signs of pressure on long-term government bond yields have led to speculation that the Bank of England may limit its active sales of government bonds.According to Russian media: The mayor of Sochi said that an oil tank at a local oil depot caught fire.On August 2, Alexei Pushkov, a member of the Constitutional Committee of the Russian Federation Council, stated that the world cannot replace the amount of oil supplied by Russia, which accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. Pushkov wrote on his social platform: "Despite Trumps warning of imposing high secondary sanctions tariffs, Indian refineries continue to purchase Russian oil. The Indian side explained that if the global market stops accepting 9.5 million barrels of oil per day from Russia, oil prices may rise to $135-140 per barrel. In fact, such a large amount of oil supply cannot be replaced at all, because Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply."According to Argus on August 2, the eight core OPEC+ members will decide on August 3rd whether to fully exit their 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) crude oil production cuts in September or adopt a more cautious approach due to heightened supply and demand uncertainty. The group has already decided to implement approximately 80% of its planned 2.46 million bpd production increase (including a 300,000 bpd adjustment to the UAEs quota). Market expectations are for another 548,000 bpd increase in September, matching the accelerated increase in August and restoring production 12 months earlier than originally planned. One delegate confirmed his countrys support for completing the full production increase in September, a move long advocated by several major members, particularly given that some countries have been producing above their quotas. However, due to concerns about oil prices, at least one member favored a cautious approach, suggesting that the 548,000 bpd increase be split into smaller adjustments of 137,000 bpd per month from September to December.On August 2nd, Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler abruptly announced his resignation on Friday, giving US President Trump an opportunity to fill the Fed vacancy earlier than expected and potentially forcing him to finalize his next chairmanship months in advance. Derek Tang, an economist at the monetary policy analysis firm LH Meyer, said, "The ball is now in Trumps court. He has been pressuring the Fed to install his own candidate. Now his opportunity has arrived." While Powells term as chairman ends in May of next year, his term as a governor runs until 2028. If Powell doesnt voluntarily resign as a governor, Trump wont have another chance to fill the vacancy before 2028. In this scenario, Trump might be forced to fill Kuglers vacancy with a candidate he plans to promote as chairman. Tobin Marcus, head of US policy and political strategy at Wolfe Research, noted, "The key is that this is the only vacancy Trump can fill. If he wants to find the next Fed chair from outside, the nomination could be announced earlier."
