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November 15th - Stephen Innes, Managing Partner of SPI Asset Management, stated that with the US government reopening, a backlog of important data will be released, including employment and inflation indicators, which the market expects to be weak. Weaker US data could depress US Treasury yields, reigniting market expectations for an interest rate cut in early 2026 and providing room for a rebound in gold prices, which have been squeezed by rising real yields. The recent pullback in gold prices appears more like position adjustments than a trend reversal. The outlook for gold remains positive, and investors will closely watch US real yields, a weaker dollar, and upcoming data. If the data points to a cooling US economy, gold could rebound next week.November 15th - According to the Financial Times, Apple (AAPL.O) is accelerating its succession planning, preparing for Tim Cook to potentially step down as CEO as early as next year. Multiple sources familiar with internal discussions revealed that Apples board and senior management have recently expedited preparations to welcome Cooks departure. John Ternus, Apples senior vice president of hardware engineering, is widely considered Cooks most likely successor, but a final decision has not yet been made. Sources close to Apple indicate that this long-awaited transition is not due to the companys current performance, as Apples iPhone sales season at the end of this year is expected to be very strong. If a successor is announced early next year, the new leadership team will have time to establish themselves before Apples key annual events, including the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June and the iPhone launch event in September.According to the Financial Times, Apple (AAPL.O) is preparing for Tim Cook to step down as CEO as early as next year, with John Ternus, the companys senior vice president of hardware engineering, widely considered the most likely successor.According to the Financial Times, Apple (AAPL.O) is stepping up its planning for a successor to CEO Tim Cook.On November 15th, the European Parliament adopted its position paper on amendments to the European Climate Law on the 13th, supporting the addition of a legally binding 2040 mid-term climate target to the existing EU climate law. The position paper requires the EU to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, while also supporting the European Commissions proposal to introduce flexibility in achieving the target. The European Parliament stated its support for member states to offset emissions reductions of up to 5% of their 1990 emissions by purchasing international carbon credits from other partner countries starting in 2036. The European Parliament also advocated for incorporating permanent carbon removal into the EU Emissions Trading System, in addition to existing reduction methods, to offset some emissions that are difficult to reduce.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.