EUR/USD 1.17843

USD/JPY 155.171

GBP/USD 1.34830

GBP/JPY 209.223

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February 19th - According to a Reuters survey, most economists predict the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise its key interest rate to 1% by the end of June. Some economists expect the central bank to act as early as April due to heightened concerns about rising inflation and a weak yen. In the survey conducted from February 10th to 18th, all 76 economists said the BOJ would keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. However, 58% of them expect the policy rate to reach 1% by the end of June, an increase from slightly over one-third in January. Of the 44 economists who specifically indicated the month of the next rate hike, 36% chose June, 20% chose April, and 34% chose July. Kento Minami, senior economist at Daiwa Securities, said the BOJ will continue to push for further rate hikes at a relatively rapid pace, taking into account the upside risks to inflation from expansionary fiscal policy and the impact of yen depreciation. Meanwhile, to curb further yen depreciation, two-thirds of the 29 respondents said they expect the authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market again. Of these, 40% believed that the 160 mark was the most likely point to trigger intervention.On February 19th, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, in a media interview, teased the upcoming GTC 2026 conference, explicitly stating that a brand-new chip "unprecedented in the world" would be unveiled at the event. Currently, the specific model of the new product has not been disclosed, but it is widely speculated that it will likely come from two major chip series: one is a derivative of the Rubin series; the other is the next-generation Feynman series chip, which is described as a "revolutionary" product.New York silver futures rose above $78 per ounce, up 0.52% on the day.According to a Reuters poll, 58% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate to 1% by the end of June, compared to 36% in the January survey.According to a Reuters poll, all 76 economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its key interest rate unchanged until March.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.