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April 17th - According to a Bloomberg survey conducted from April 9th to 15th, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in June due to rising inflation caused by the Iran conflict. However, this 0.25 percentage point hike is likely to be the only such measure, as the conflict is not expected to cause a long-term price shock. The survey shows that the Eurozones inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.8% this year—higher than the previously predicted 2%. It is then projected to fall back to 2.1% by 2026 and further to 2% by 2027—in line with the ECBs target. Sources familiar with the matter indicate that ECB officials currently favor keeping interest rates unchanged at their next meeting at the end of April. Some, including the president of the German central bank, believe that the possibility of action at that time cannot be ruled out.Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, whereas its previous forecast was for a rate cut in September.Trade sources say Indian banks have suspended imports of gold and silver from overseas suppliers. Due to delays caused by government orders, Indian banks are still awaiting customs clearance for imported gold and silver. Approximately 5 tons of gold and 8 tons of silver are stranded due to lack of customs clearance.The Romanian Ministry of Defense stated that radar detected a Russian drone violating the countrys airspace.The oil crisis triggered by the Iran-Iraq War has led Asian countries to scramble for alternatives. With biofuels now cheaper than fossil fuels for the first time, Asian fuel suppliers are racing to buy them. According to Argus Media, benchmark biodiesel prices in Europe began falling below conventional diesel prices in late March, while Asian palm oil futures prices also fell below diesel prices in early April.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.