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July 20th, Futures Market News: Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures opened lower but then fluctuated upwards. Canadian canola futures continued to rise, with the benchmark contract closing 2.2% higher, mainly reflecting the surge in international crude oil futures and significant increases in Chicago soybean oil and European canola futures. Rapeseed meal spot prices rose slightly. Soybean meals strong substitution advantage is squeezing demand for rapeseed meal. Currently, rapeseed meal demand is mainly driven by immediate needs, while supply is increasing, leading to continued market volatility and adjustment.1. The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) maintained the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, marking the 14th consecutive month of no change. 2. Xie Cun, spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and Director of the Information and Communications Development Department, stated that guidelines for the construction of a computing power standards system will be issued to promote the establishment of standards for computing power service capability assessment and market-based pricing of computing power. 3. Wang Weiming, Chief Engineer of the MIIT, stated that the new round of work plans to stabilize growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment will continue to be implemented, comprehensively expanding high-quality supply and effective demand. 4. The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicts that soybean imports in July will exceed 10 million tons, with crushing volume around 10 million tons, a slight increase month-on-month and a slight decrease year-on-year, representing an increase of approximately 650,000 tons compared to the average of the same period over the past three years. 5. According to Mysteel, global iron ore shipments from July 13th to July 19th, 2026, totaled 33.004 million tons, an increase of 4.103 million tons month-on-month. 6. Total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 26.859 million tons, an increase of 4.356 million tons month-on-month. 7. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, Chinas spodumene imports in June 2026 were 768,400 tons, an increase of 12.9% month-on-month. From January to June 2026, Chinas spodumene imports totaled 4.434 million tons, an increase of 26.9% year-on-year. 8. According to Longzhong Information, as of July 20, 2026, the total sample inventory of styrene at Jiangsu ports was 91,800 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the same period last week, a drop of 1.08%. 9. Goldman Sachs: If the conflict in the Middle East escalates further and exacerbates concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes, copper prices face downside risks in the near term. 10. Australian mining giant South32 reported on Monday that its fourth-quarter copper production declined, failing to meet market expectations, due to continued disruptions from adverse weather at its Sierra Gorda project in Chile. 10. According to Mysteel, on July 20th, state-owned coal mines in the Yulin area were in normal production, with some mines suspending production for maintenance. Over the weekend, coal prices in the producing areas mainly rose, by 10-20 yuan/ton, and coal mine inventories remained low. Meanwhile, coal mill sales were good, with inventories at moderate levels. 11. According to customs data, China imported 25,861 tons of lithium carbonate in June, a decrease of 31% month-on-month but an increase of 46% year-on-year. From January to June, Chinas cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 179,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 52%.July 20th, Futures News: Today, international crude oil futures prices rose significantly, and the energy and chemical sector in the domestic futures market collectively surged. 1. Wuchan Zhongda Futures: With the Strait of Hormuz closing again and expectations of disruption to the Red Sea shipping route, crude oil supply may face tightness again. 2. Galaxy Futures: In the short term, there is little hope for a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict. If the US continues to attack Iranian power and other infrastructure, the Houthi rebels may block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, leading to another significant increase in crude oil prices. The strong crude oil prices provide cost support for related commodities in the energy and chemical sector. The energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its strong oscillating pattern in the short term. However, the risk of a pullback after the geopolitical sentiment subsides should be noted. 3. Baocheng Futures: Iran is an important source of methanol imports for my country. The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightens expectations for next months arrivals, coupled with low port inventories, boosting market bullish sentiment. It is worth noting that crude oil refinery maintenance has resulted in weak operating rates for downstream MTO units, and end-user demand may not keep pace with the rise in methanol prices.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.5-magnitude earthquake in western Iran.July 20th - On July 19th, the total crude oil production of the Bayan Oilfield in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia, exceeded 6 million tons. This marks the second time in just seven months that it has surpassed the 5 million ton mark, following its achievement in December 2025. In the first half of the year, the oilfield produced over 870,000 tons of crude oil, completing 51% of its annual plan. Daily production remained stable at 4,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20%, contributing nearly one-third of the daily output of the North China Oilfield.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.