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The Iranian Foreign Minister discussed the protests in Iran with U.S. Special Envoy Witkov.January 12th - JPMorgan Chases securities trading division stated that the Trump administrations latest challenges to the Federal Reserves independence pose a threat to the US stock market, at least in the short term. News of a potential criminal investigation into the Fed impacted US markets Sunday night, causing stock index futures and the dollar to fall, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets such as gold. Andrew Taylor, JPMorgan Chases global head of market intelligence, said, "While macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals support a tactical bullish stance, the risks to the Feds independence are creating downward pressure on the market, so we remain cautious in the very short term. The risks surrounding the Feds independence could push US markets to underperform in the short term."On January 12th, it was reported that Bank of Communications received approval to acquire and restructure one of its rural banks, becoming the first state-owned bank to convert a rural bank into a branch bank in the new year, and the tenth such conversion since last year. Since 2025, in addition to Bank of Communications, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China have also begun converting their rural banks into branches. Many industry insiders interviewed believe that with the Central Economic Work Conference setting the tone for "reducing the number and improving the quality" of small and medium-sized financial institutions, the reform and risk mitigation of small and medium-sized banks will accelerate this year, with mergers and acquisitions remaining the mainstream model. Data shows that more than 450 small and medium-sized banks will exit the market in 2025, of which more than 280 are rural banks, with Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Hubei experiencing the largest reductions.On January 12th, Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, stated in a report that the US dollar is expected to face greater volatility this year as political pressure on the Federal Reserve rises. Markets are concerned that the Fed may lose its independence due to government demands for interest rate cuts and pressure on current Chairman Powell. However, Foley pointed out that some argue that with inflation remaining high, other FOMC members could provide a check on a Fed chairman who favors rate cuts. Foley stated that uncertainty surrounding the Feds future credibility may put downward pressure on the dollar, "but not to the point of triggering an out-of-control decline."Mexican President Simbaum: Had a “good conversation” with US President Trump.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.