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On January 7th, UBS analysts noted in a report that European oil giants may slow their quarterly share buyback pace. Analysts believe that companies may use this opportunity to reassess their capital frameworks in conjunction with updated earnings outlooks. Shell, listed in London, is expected to see the most significant reduction, with its quarterly buybacks falling from $3.5 billion to $3 billion. BP should be able to maintain its buyback levels using cash proceeds from asset divestitures; the British oil giant had previously cut its quarterly buybacks from $1.75 billion to $750 million early last year. Furthermore, Total Energy of France is expected to reduce its buybacks from $1.5 billion to $750 million. Analysts also indicated that Eni of Italy and Statoil of Norway may announce reductions in their buyback amounts on their respective capital markets days.January 7th - Since the imposition of sanctions on Venezuela, U.S. refineries have increased their crude oil imports from Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and the Middle East. This increased U.S. imports from Venezuela will replace some of these crude oil supplies, primarily from Canada. Canada aims to increase oil production to record levels by 2025 and export approximately 90% of its crude oil to the United States. A refining industry source stated, "At a time when Venezuela is struggling, Canadian heavy crude oil has filled the market gap. Now, different grades of crude oil will compete, which is beneficial for the U.S. refining industry but detrimental to Canada." Randy Olenburg, Managing Director of Barmos Capital Markets, stated that the long-term growth in Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on Canadian oil prices and further highlight the need to build a new Canadian export pipeline to the Pacific coast.The UKs December construction PMI came in at 40.1, below the expected 42.5 and the previous reading of 39.4.On January 7th, Futures reported that driven by the continued rise in prices of upstream polysilicon, silicon wafers, and solar cells, some leading companies raised their N-type module prices, sending a clear signal of price support. However, actual transactions did not follow suit. Currently, it is the traditional off-season at the end of the year, with most large-scale domestic projects nearing completion and overseas shipments slowing due to the Spring Festival and holidays. End-users have extremely low acceptance of price increases. Most buyers are choosing to wait and see or suppress prices to fulfill previous low-priced orders, making it difficult to implement new quotes, resulting in a "high price but no sales" market. Low-priced goods below 0.68 yuan/watt are still circulating in some channels, further suppressing the potential for price increases. In the short term, while the module segment has cost support, it lacks effective demand. If end-user projects fail to start as scheduled after the Spring Festival, high prices may be unsustainable. The core contradiction in the current market remains the resolute price increases from upstream suppliers and weak downstream demand. Whether prices can truly stabilize depends on the pace of demand recovery at the end of the first quarter.On January 7th, Alibabas (09988.HK) Gaode Maps announced an upgrade to its "Street View Ranking," launching a "Flying Street View" feature based on its self-developed world model technology and expanding the rankings coverage from food to more scenarios. For small and micro-sized merchants, Gaode announced a support plan, stating that the platform will cover the computing costs to provide free access to the aforementioned "Flying Street View" feature for 1 million small and micro-sized merchants. In addition, Gaode plans to cooperate with 100 cities nationwide, lowering the entry threshold for merchants while providing resources such as data analysis and travel subsidies. Currently, Shanghai, Sichuan, Jinan, and other cities have already launched related cooperation.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.