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On March 12th, Eli Lee, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of Singapore, stated in a report that disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, damage to Middle Eastern infrastructure, and increased volatility in crude oil prices could translate into greater risks to equity valuations. This prompted Bank of Singapore to downgrade its asset allocation for Asian (excluding Japan) equities from "overweight" to "neutral." Within the region, Lee remains optimistic about mainland China, Hong Kong, and the Singapore primary market. Lee specifically pointed out that China has accumulated one of the worlds largest strategic oil reserves, enabling it to buffer against the impact of disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that oil and gas account for only about 4% of Chinas electricity mix, far below the 40%-50% average in many Asian countries and regions.The SC crude oil futures contract surged 16.00% intraday, currently trading at 753.60 yuan per barrel.The main fuel oil contract surged 14.00% intraday, currently trading at 4858.00 yuan/ton.On March 12, INGs commodities strategy team stated in a report that the IEAs plan to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves is insufficient to offset supply losses in the Persian Gulf region. As part of a coordinated effort, the United States will begin releasing 172 million barrels of its strategic petroleum reserves next week. ING estimates this will take approximately 120 days to complete, equivalent to a daily release of about 1.4 million barrels by the US. ING added, "If we assume other countries follow a similar timeline, the daily release would be approximately 3.3 million barrels, far below the current supply losses we are seeing in the Persian Gulf."March 12th - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing officially released the "China Logistics Technology Development Report (2025)" today. According to the report, 2025 will see frequent hot topics in my countrys logistics technology development, with new logistics equipment achieving large-scale application. In particular, the deep integration of "artificial intelligence+" into logistics will improve operational efficiency and effectively help reduce overall social logistics costs. In 2025, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP will drop to 13.9%, the lowest level on record, meaning that the logistics costs required to achieve a unit of GDP are decreasing. Embossed robots are beginning to enter warehouses and factories, completing a significant leap from "automated guided vehicles" to intelligent agents that can "perceive, think, and operate."

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD corrects to around $1,910 despite intensifying concerns of a global banking crisis

Alina Haynes

Mar 16, 2023 14:00

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After reaching a new six-week high at $1,937.39, the gold price (XAU/USD) displayed a corrective move during the Asian session. As gold's allure is extremely strong amid growing concerns about the global banking crisis, a correction in the precious metal appears to be short-lived. Credit Suisse's debacle following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has triggered the risk of global financial instability, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision has bolstered the case for the Gold price.

 

S&P500 futures have shown a recovery move following Wednesday's sell-off as investors assess the banking sector's uncertainty. However, the motif of risk aversion has not yet completely subsided.

 

During the Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is fluctuating in a narrow range of around 104.60. It appears that the impact of banking sector turmoil is maturing for the USD Index, and investors are beginning to discount expectations for next week's monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch instrument, the probability that Fed chair Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) has risen above 70%. While 30% of the probabilities support maintaining the current interest rate policy.

 

Increasing odds of a status quo monetary policy are supported by a declining Consumer Price Index (CPI), a rising Unemployment Rate, sluggish Retail Sales, and a declining Producer Price Index (PPI).


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