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1. Bank of America: With both inflation and long-term growth expectations revised upwards, Powell may acknowledge the risks of stagflation while emphasizing a wait-and-see approach. 2. Morgan Stanley: Powell may choose to ignore energy-driven inflation, the dollar faces downside risks, and oil prices will play a central role in the foreign exchange market. 3. Trade France: With the risks of its dual mandate increasing, Powell is unlikely to provide clear guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts this year, instead continuing his data-dependent stance. 4. Rabobank: Under Powells leadership, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, attempting to balance inflation risks and slowing growth. 5. Deutsche Bank: Powell is likely to emphasize that the Middle East situation primarily affects the economy through financial conditions, particularly volatile oil prices. 1. Deutsche Bank: Policymakers are expected to emphasize the significantly increased geopolitical uncertainty. 2. Morgan Stanley: The Federal Reserve is not expected to respond to the oil price shock by raising interest rates or hinting at the risk of such a hike. 3. RBC Capital Markets: The recent energy price shock is not enough to put a rate hike on the agenda, but may prompt the Fed to remain on the sidelines. 4. Rabobank: If the war situation worsens, the US economy will face the dual pressures of a sharp rise in inflation and a significant slowdown in growth in 2026. 5. Bank of America: With slowing employment and exhausted fiscal stimulus, rising oil prices will weaken consumer spending, creating conditions for the Fed to ease monetary policy. 6. ANZ: Uncertainty from the Middle East geopolitical situation is not expected to substantially change the Feds underlying fundamental assessment of falling inflation and cooling employment. 7. Commerzbank: As long as inflation expectations remain stable and the labor market continues to face downward pressure, the Fed is likely to temporarily ignore the temporary rise in oil prices. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently detected a missile launched from Iran heading towards Israeli territory. Defense systems are operational to intercept the threat. In the past few minutes, the domestic frontline command has sent precautionary instructions to personnel in the affected areas via mobile phone.In an interview with Al Jazeera, Irans foreign minister said he understands the dissatisfaction of regional countries over the matter, but the United States should bear full responsibility for the war.In an interview with Al Jazeera, Irans foreign minister stated that Irans target is any location where US troops are concentrated, including areas near cities.

Gold Price Prediction - Gold Prices Will Experience Declining Pressure as the Dollar Strengthens

Daniel Rogers

May 13, 2022 10:17

Gold prices are under pressure to decline as investors flock to the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The market became more risk-averse as a result of rising inflation statistics. The dollar rises as investors flock to the currency for its safe-haven attraction.

 

In response to strong inflation data, investors shifted into bonds and sold equities, lowering benchmark yields. Today, the yield on ten-year bonds fell 7 basis points.

 

This week, initial unemployment claims increased by 1,000 to 203,000 from the revised total of 202,000 previous week. The result conforms to the tight labor market. As workers are pushed to seek out better options, job postings and resignation rates have reached all-time highs.

 

The most recent CPI data indicates that the Fed is concerned about rising inflation. The CPI came in at 8.3%, which was stronger than anticipated. Nonetheless, the reading was lower than March's reading of 8.5%. The data supports the Fed's strategy to aggressively tighten interest rates in response to rising inflationary pressures.

Technical Evaluation

Gold prices fall below the 200-day moving average of $1,836 and are subject to bearish pressure that might drive gold prices to $1,800. Near the 200-day moving average at 1,836 is viewed as support. Near the 10-day moving average of 1,874, there is expected to be resistance.

 

As a result of the Fast Stochastic's crossover sell signal, short-term momentum is negative. As the fast stochastic displays a value of 9.79 below the oversold threshold of 20, prices are oversold.

 

As the MACD produces a crossover sell signal, medium-term momentum has gone negative. This occurs when the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average crosses below the MACD line's 9-day moving average.

 

The trajectory of the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is negative, indicating falling prices.

 

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