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March 11 - According to the official WeChat account of China Railway, from January to February this year, the national railway completed 72.2 billion yuan in fixed asset investment, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Railway construction is progressing with high quality and efficiency, injecting new momentum into regional economic and social development.March 11th - Today (March 11th) marks the 38th day of the Spring Festival travel rush. According to the Ministry of Transport, as of today, the total number of cross-regional passenger trips across society is expected to exceed 9 billion.March 11 - Shipping data released on Tuesday suggests that Saudi Arabias oil shipments via the Red Sea are on track to reach a record high in March, though still far below the decline in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the London Financial Exchange Group shows that Yanbu Ports average loading volume for the first nine days of March reached 2.2 million barrels per day, up from nearly 2 million barrels per day last week and 1.1 million barrels per day in February. Before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia exported approximately 6 million barrels of oil per day through the strait. Kpler shipping data indicates that at least 40 tankers may load in March, potentially pushing exports above 4 million barrels per day. However, while traders claim the ports capacity exceeds 4.5 million barrels per day, actual loading volumes rarely exceed 2.5 million barrels per day.Saudi Arabia claims it shot down two drones that were flying toward the Shayba oil field.March 11 – National Australia Bank (NAB) stated that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may now raise interest rates in both March and May, with a peak rate of 4.35%. The banks economics and markets research team noted this is an adjustment from their previous forecast of a single rate hike in May with a peak rate of 4.1%. A key reason for this change in view is the hawkish comments from the RBA Governor and Deputy Governor over the past week. The team stated that the RBA appears to have "very limited tolerance for upward inflationary pressures, but perhaps slightly more tolerance for slower economic growth. This means the least regrettable policy move would be a rate hike in March."

Gold Price Forecast: Bear Flag, Powell Teases XAU/USD Sellers, $1,750 in Focus

Daniel Rogers

Aug 26, 2022 15:08

截屏2022-07-29 上午11.06.12.png 

 

Early Friday morning in Europe, gold price (XAU/USD) recovers off intraday low as sellers retreat from $1,750 support. Gold posts its first daily loss in three around the week's high.

 

The bullion's latest downturn may be due to market pessimism ahead of the Fed's favored inflation announcement and Jackson Hole address. China, Iran, and Taiwan may add to the negative mood.

 

China's county near Beijing declared lockdown due to covid, joining the US suspension of 26 Chinese carrier flights in response to Beijing's action. An expanded defense budget, a rise in US diplomats visiting Taipei, and US President Joe Biden's stern stance on Iran's position in Syria appear to have weighed on market sentiment.

 

Mixed US data, Fedspeak, and a drop in US Treasury yields supported gold's recent run-up. The second estimate of US GDP Annualized improved to -0.6% in Q2 from -0.9% flash estimates and -0.8% market projections. US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 243K for the week ended August 19, compared to 253K predicted and 245K revised.

 

Kansas City Fed President Esther George stated Thursday, "For the near term, higher rates appear appropriate." The policymaker also said it's too early to determine what to expect in September due to upcoming critical data. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he wants to see the next inflation number before deciding on the September rate decision, but a 50 basis point boost would still be big. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the WSJ, "I'd toss a coin between 50 bps and 75 bps," adding, "If data remains solid and inflation doesn't fall, it may create a case for another 75 bps."

 

China's over $1 trillion stimulus and a holistic strategy by local institutions helped metal prices.

 

S&P 500 Futures deviate from Wall Street's advances and fall to 4,195. US 10-year Treasury rates rose two basis points (bps) to 3.045% at press time, illustrating the risk-off mood.

 

Before Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, XAU/USD traders may see an idle session. The Fed's chosen inflation gauge, the US Core PCE Price Index, may interest speculators. Forecasts predict YoY growth of 4.7%, down from 4.8%, and monthly growth of 0.3%, down from 0.6%.


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