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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,317.43 on May 2 (Friday), up 564.47 points, or 1.39%. The S&P 500 closed at 5,686.68 on May 2 (Friday), up 82.54 points, or 1.47%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 17,977.73 on May 2 (Friday), up 266.99 points, or 1.51%.On May 3, according to the Wall Street Journal, the incoming Federal Reserve Vice Chairman of Supervision, Bowman, is seeking to reassess confidential ratings of the health of large banks. In a speech in February this year, she questioned the Feds recent regulatory ratings, saying that there was a "strange mismatch" between the Feds view of the financial condition of large banks and the unsatisfactory ratings given to many of them last year. According to people familiar with the matter, the Federal Reserve has not yet announced new regulatory ratings for U.S. banks with assets of $100 billion or more. Usually, the Federal Reserve will announce these ratings privately before the end of March. Some people familiar with the matter said that the Federal Reserve is planning to wait until the Senate confirms Bowmans new position. It is reported that the Federal Reserve has begun the process of determining next years ratings, and Bowman is expected to change the way the Federal Reserve calculates scores.According to the Wall Street Journal: Incoming Federal Reserve Vice Chairman of Supervision Bowman is seeking to reassess bank ratings.U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 29, U.S. speculators reduced their net short positions in the S&P 500 CME by 10,014 contracts to 249,462 contracts, while stock fund managers increased their net long positions in the S&P 500 CME by 18,407 contracts to 826,250 contracts.U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 29, speculative net long positions in COMEX silver futures increased by 5,078 lots to 31,252 lots.

Gold Price Forecast: Bear Flag, Powell Teases XAU/USD Sellers, $1,750 in Focus

Daniel Rogers

Aug 26, 2022 15:08

截屏2022-07-29 上午11.06.12.png 

 

Early Friday morning in Europe, gold price (XAU/USD) recovers off intraday low as sellers retreat from $1,750 support. Gold posts its first daily loss in three around the week's high.

 

The bullion's latest downturn may be due to market pessimism ahead of the Fed's favored inflation announcement and Jackson Hole address. China, Iran, and Taiwan may add to the negative mood.

 

China's county near Beijing declared lockdown due to covid, joining the US suspension of 26 Chinese carrier flights in response to Beijing's action. An expanded defense budget, a rise in US diplomats visiting Taipei, and US President Joe Biden's stern stance on Iran's position in Syria appear to have weighed on market sentiment.

 

Mixed US data, Fedspeak, and a drop in US Treasury yields supported gold's recent run-up. The second estimate of US GDP Annualized improved to -0.6% in Q2 from -0.9% flash estimates and -0.8% market projections. US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 243K for the week ended August 19, compared to 253K predicted and 245K revised.

 

Kansas City Fed President Esther George stated Thursday, "For the near term, higher rates appear appropriate." The policymaker also said it's too early to determine what to expect in September due to upcoming critical data. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he wants to see the next inflation number before deciding on the September rate decision, but a 50 basis point boost would still be big. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the WSJ, "I'd toss a coin between 50 bps and 75 bps," adding, "If data remains solid and inflation doesn't fall, it may create a case for another 75 bps."

 

China's over $1 trillion stimulus and a holistic strategy by local institutions helped metal prices.

 

S&P 500 Futures deviate from Wall Street's advances and fall to 4,195. US 10-year Treasury rates rose two basis points (bps) to 3.045% at press time, illustrating the risk-off mood.

 

Before Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, XAU/USD traders may see an idle session. The Fed's chosen inflation gauge, the US Core PCE Price Index, may interest speculators. Forecasts predict YoY growth of 4.7%, down from 4.8%, and monthly growth of 0.3%, down from 0.6%.


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