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According to Iranian reports, more than 200 enemy aircraft have been shot down in the recent conflict.On August 17th, Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the Institute of Law and National Security of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), stated that Irans resistance to the US military presence in the Middle East has seriously challenged the feasibility of deploying its carrier strike groups. Stepanov stated that aircraft carriers are among the most expensive tools for projecting US military power, but their effectiveness has been severely diminished due to their inherent weaknesses and the lack of adequate means to protect such large, high-value assets. He further pointed out that the more than 260-day deployment at sea and the inherent vulnerabilities of the ships themselves have placed a heavy burden on the crews. This is the longest mission to date, yet it has yielded almost no substantial military results.On August 17th, according to reports from the Ukrainian Air Force and local officials on social media, Russian forces launched attacks on 16 locations in Sumy, Odessa, and Kharkiv regions from the evening of the 16th to the early morning of the 17th. As of the morning of the 17th, the attacks had resulted in at least two deaths and 11 injuries. The Ukrainian Air Force stated on the morning of the 17th that Russian forces launched 128 drones into Ukrainian territory from the evening of the 16th to the early morning of the 17th. As of 8:30 AM on the 17th, Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare units had intercepted 106 drones. The Ukrainian State Emergency Service stated on the morning of the 17th that Russian forces launched attacks on Sumy region in the early hours of the day, targeting residential buildings and structures, resulting in two deaths and one injury.On August 17, according to a statement from the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Governments (KRG) Anti-Terrorism Directorate, at 00:28 local time, two Hadid-110 drones loaded with explosives took off from the Iranian border, targeting the KRG Prime Ministers office and the residence of the KRG Security Director in the Pilm district of Erbil province. No casualties were reported. The statement strongly condemned the attack and act of aggression, reiterating that these actions were "completely unacceptable" and that all perpetrators would be held accountable.On August 17, local time, Yadora Javani, deputy political commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said: "The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened once the United States fulfills its commitments under the Islamabad memorandum."

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD approaches the golden ratio of 61.8 percent

Daniel Rogers

Jun 09, 2022 11:28

截屏2022-06-07 下午5.15.00_1024x576.png 

 

Following a rise into the 50 percent mean reversion level of the hourly bullish impulse highlighted in previous trading, the gold price is retreating further to $1,852 as demonstrated by the technical analysis below. The US dollar has been on the ascendant over the middle of the week and has maintained its strength in Asia, as assessed by the DXY index.

 

The US dollar index increased on Wednesday, reversing earlier drops, after investors exited equities and the US 10-year auction yielded 3.03 percent, up from 2.943 percent at the previous auction. In addition, the dollar set a new 20-year high versus the yen, as the Bank of Japan remained one of the few global central banks to retain a dovish approach. The ensuing increase in US rates has resulted in the 10-year holding over 3%, bolstering the greenback.

 

Gold has been praised for its safe-haven attributes prior to the OECD's predictions that the world will pay a heavy price for the Ukraine conflict. It reduced its forecast for global growth this year from 4.5 percent in December to 3 percent. This follows the revision of the World Bank's growth prediction earlier this week. Gold surrendered some of its late-session gains as the US dollar gained, according to ANZ Bank analysts.

 

In the meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities explained: "although the war in Ukraine helped send the bears packing, the waning of geopolitical risk premia across global assets has not prompted this group of discretionary traders to liquidate their positions.

 

"In turn, the disparity between gold and real rates may be linked to both an unwarranted rise in real rates owing to quantitative tightening and the still-massive amount of complacent length maintained in gold, which is keeping the yellow metal's prices high."

 

The focus will shift to the European Central Bank tomorrow as markets prepare for Friday's US inflation report.

 

The analysts at TD Securities stated that until Christine Lagarde "commits to a series of 50s," the EUR/USD has little upside potential, especially with the Euribor curve trading as it is and US CPI expected the next day. The risk/reward ratio favors a decline in EUR/USD trading. The long-term inflation outlook will be crucial.

 

TDS researchers also predicted that the ECB will "announce that the APP will terminate within weeks and convey a clear signal that rate rises are coming in July and September (October remains a more interesting meeting in this sense). Forecasts indicate a rise in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth, underscoring the ECB's future difficulty.

 

Consequently, gold may be desirable due to its safe-haven features. The worsening economic environment has allowed investors to support the precious metal. Gold recently surpassed $1,850 despite a stronger USD.


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