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March 10th - According to foreign media reports, both Goldman Sachs and Barclays have warned that continued oil price increases could push up overall inflation. Goldman Sachs estimates that a sustained 10% rise in oil prices could increase the CPI by approximately 0.28 percentage points. In one scenario, if oil prices rise by about $10 and remain high for three months, the US inflation rate could rise from 2.4% to about 3%. Barclays believes that oil prices approaching $100 per barrel will push up overall inflation, primarily through gasoline prices. Based on its baseline outlook, it expects overall US inflation to be around 2.7% year-on-year, and core inflation to be around 2.8%, assuming oil prices do not remain high for an extended period. If oil prices continue to approach $100 per barrel, it could push the inflation rate towards 3% and potentially delay expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.March 10th - According to the Ministry of Water Resources, as of 10:00 AM on March 9th, the Yellow River had thawed for a total of 379.3 kilometers. It is expected to be fully thawed around March 14th, nine days earlier than usual. The maximum ten-day water volume at the Toudaoguai hydrological station is estimated at around 600 million cubic meters, about 40% less than usual; the maximum peak flow during the thaw is expected to be around 950 cubic meters per second, about 50% lower than usual. The thaw is progressing smoothly, and the overall risks are controllable.On March 10, the European Commission for Economic and Financial Affairs held a meeting in Brussels, Belgium, attended by finance ministers from EU member states. According to information previously published on the EU website, the meeting agenda included a routine discussion on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the current economic and financial situation in Ukraine.The main Shanghai copper futures contract rose more than 2.00% intraday, currently trading at 101,890.00 yuan/ton.On March 10th, it was reported that Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will meet this week with a Republican senator who previously blocked his confirmation by opposing President Trumps attacks on the Fed. Warshs meeting is intended to resolve differences and move the nomination forward, but it also reflects the Trump administrations intention to interfere with the Feds independence. This event not only concerns a change in Fed leadership but could also affect the future direction of US monetary policy and the stability of global financial markets.

Gold Falls Prior to U.S. Inflation Data

Charlie Brooks

Jun 08, 2022 14:51

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Wednesday morning in Asia, gold prices were lower as investors awaited the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for additional information on interest rate hikes.


Futures for gold decreased 0.05 percent to $1,851.05 as of 11:01 PM ET (3:01 AM GMT). Wednesday morning, the dollar, which often swings inversely to gold, inched higher.


Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated on Tuesday that inflation might remain elevated, and the Biden administration is likely to boost the 4.7% inflation projection for this year in its budget proposal.


Yellen stated that transactions combining gold and Russia could be sanctioned, and that any attempts to avoid U.S. sanctions using gold are closely monitored.


Monetary policies remain on the minds of investors. They now await the U.S. CPI report on Friday for hints on the course of interest rate hikes.


As inflation, supply disruptions, and rising interest rates remain a concern, the World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth this year to 2.9%, down from 4.1% in January.


In Asia-Pacific, Japan's first-quarter economy outperformed forecasts, with the country's gross domestic product (GDP) falling by 0.5 percent year-over-year in January-March, compared to the initial estimate of a decline of 1.0 percent released last month.


Tuesday saw the Reserve Bank of Australia increase interest rates to 0.85%.


In terms of other precious metals, silver fell 0.12 percent. Platinum decreased 0.28 percent, whereas palladium increased 0.74 percent.