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March 20th - Generally, geopolitical conflicts can fuel market risk aversion, pushing up gold prices. For example, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, gold prices surged within two weeks. However, since the outbreak of the Iraq War, while oil and the US dollar have soared, gold has experienced a continuous decline. "This counterintuitive trend in gold prices is mainly due to the fact that interest rate logic is significantly suppressing safe-haven logic," said Qu Rui, Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department at Orient Securities. He added that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the continued rise in oil prices are pushing up global inflation expectations, which may reinforce the Federal Reserves stance of maintaining unchanged interest rates, putting downward pressure on precious metals. Qu Rui cautioned that short-term gold price movements still need to focus on factors such as the Federal Reserves interest rate cut window and the evolution of the Middle East situation, and to be wary of potential risks such as unexpectedly high global inflation and escalating geopolitical conflicts.European Council President Costa: (Regarding Hungarian Prime Minister Orbáns obstruction of loans to Ukraine) No one can blackmail the European Council.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The EU will provide loans to Ukraine regardless of the circumstances.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: We will consider the industry’s concerns about the carbon emissions trading system.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: We need to modernize the EUs carbon pricing mechanism.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Breaking Crucial Resistance at 1.2260

Alina Haynes

May 16, 2022 11:00

In the early Tokyo session, the GBP/USD pair is oscillating in a tight range between 1.2236 and 1.2266. After hitting a low of 1.2173 on Friday, the asset has been gradually ascending as risk-perceived currencies attracted strong interest.

 

A break to the upside of the cable from its prior range of 1.2173 to 1.2248 has strengthened the pound versus the dollar. The pair is hanging near the important horizontal resistance established by the high reached on May 9 at 1.2262. The trendline drawn from the March 5 high of 1.2663 and the previous week's high of 1.2400 will operate as a formidable barrier in the near future.

 

A sustained move above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2233 is bullish for the currency pair. However, the asset remains below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.2340, indicating that a downward tendency persists.

 

The momentum oscillator, Relative Strength Index (RSI), (14) oscillates between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating a lack of direction heading ahead.

 

If the asset surpasses the previously mentioned trendline at 1.2300, investors should consider a positive move. This will lead the asset in the direction of the previous week's peak at 1.2400, followed by the May 9 peak at 1.2662.

 

Alternatively, dollar bulls could reclaim control if the asset falls below Friday's low of 1.2173, sending it towards the 18 May 2020 low of 1.2075. A violation of the latter will drag the cable to the high of 1.1973 on March 25, 2020.

GBP/USD Chart Hourly

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