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On May 5, according to CMEs "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 63.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 35.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.1%.Spot gold opened basically flat on Monday, currently trading at $3,243.89 an ounce.1. Chechen leader: Ukrainian troops try to return to Kursk. 2. Temporary restrictions imposed at Vnukovo Airport in Moscow, Russia. 3. Ukrainian military: 69 drones launched by Russia were shot down overnight. 4. Putin said he has been considering the issue of succession, but the final choice will be made by the Russian people. 5. According to Interfax: Russian President Putin said that we have enough strength and means to push the conflict with Ukraine to a reasonable end. 6. According to Ukrainian Pravda: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that in the past 24 hours, the Russian army lost two fighter planes, 1,340 soldiers were killed or wounded, and 11 tanks.On May 5, Japans attitude towards using U.S. debt as a negotiating tool with the United States reversed again. According to Nikkei News, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Sunday (May 4) that Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to gain an advantage in trade negotiations with the United States, and Japan does not consider the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds to be a tool for Japan-U.S. negotiations. Katsunobu Kato said last Friday that although Japan would not easily sell its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, they were a "card" for negotiations with the United States on trade issues; he overturned this statement at a press conference on Sunday. The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that as of the end of March, Japan held $1.27 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, most of which were U.S. Treasury bonds. Foreign exchange reserves can be used to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In April, Katsunobu Kato ruled out the possibility of using Japans holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as a negotiating tool.On May 5, the Israeli Prime Ministers Office issued a statement on the evening of May 4 local time, saying that Israel will retaliate against the Houthi armed forces and their ally Iran in response to the missile attack on Tel Avivs Ben-Gurion International Airport earlier that day. The statement said that the attack by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen "originated from Iran" and Israel will choose the time and place to take action against Iran, the force behind the Houthi armed forces. Iran has not responded to this yet.

GBP/JPY Meets Resistance Near 158.00 As UK GDP Forecasts Weaken

Daniel Rogers

Feb 08, 2023 14:47

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The GBP/JPY pair has detected selling attention despite striving to extend recovery above the critical resistance of 158.00 in the Asian session. The less-confident pullback move by the Pound Sterling has been fined and the negative path for the cross has continued.

 

On Tuesday, the cross was heavily dumped by the market participant. Additionally, Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials admitted a covert operation to support the Japanese Yen.

 

Meanwhile, the impact of appointing BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya as BoJ Haruhiko Kuroda's replacement has begun to be felt on the street. OCBC analysts examined the impact of each contender for BoJ's new leadership on the Japanese yen.

 

According to a letter from OCBC, "this week's focus will be on the list of BoJ nominees that is anticipated to be handed to parliament on 10 February, however reports indicate a postponement until next week." Amamiya’s appointment would be most advantageous to the Japanese Yen upward but Yamaguchi’s appointment might drag down Yen’s strength.

 

On the front of the United Kingdom, the Bank of England (BoE) has failed to meaningfully lower inflationary pressures despite being an early adopter of tight monetary policy throughout the pandemic and pushing interest rates to 4%. As a result of their inability to meet key expenses, households are suffering from the effects of a growing cost of living.

 

As reported by Reuters, according to a report from Britain's National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), "one in four British households would be unable to pay for food and energy without using up savings, borrowing, or seeking other assistance in the 2023/24 financial year, up from one in five in the current year."

 

The agency has cut its predictions for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 0.7% to 0.2% and from 1.7% to 1.0% for 2024. Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey's decision to boost interest rates in order to attain price stability has lowered the scale of economic activities.


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