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BNP Paribas expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged in March, whereas it had previously anticipated a rate cut.March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”March 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Wednesday during a parliamentary committee meeting, in response to questions from lawmakers, that the Japanese government has not ruled out the possibility of releasing national oil reserves "on its own initiative," rather than as part of a coordinated action. He added, "We will take all possible measures to ensure a stable energy supply." As of the end of December, Japans total oil reserves were sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs for 254 days, of which 146 days worth were held by the government, 101 days worth were held by the private sector, and the remainder were stored jointly with oil-producing countries.March 11th - This years government work report further clarified the need to "expand market access with a focus on the service sector," accelerating Beijings new round of opening up. In the first batch of pilot programs nationwide to expand opening up in areas such as value-added telecommunications and healthcare, Beijing became the first city in China to establish a foreign-invested enterprise specializing in human gene diagnosis and treatment technology. To date, more than 60 foreign-invested enterprises have participated in the pilot programs. Last year, Beijing saw over 2,400 new foreign-invested enterprises, a record high. According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, this year will see the release of the 3.0 plan for the comprehensive demonstration zone for expanding opening up in the service sector, the implementation of actions to enhance the opening-up level of key industrial parks, the promotion of differentiated development of comprehensive bonded zones, and proactive alignment with high-standard international trade and economic rules, injecting new momentum into a higher level of opening up.Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Irans regional aggression.

Forecast for the Gold Price: The XAUUSD gains on news from Poland, but the US Dollar is in demand

Alina Haynes

Nov 16, 2022 14:39

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Gold is trading at $1,778 per ounce, up 0.4% on the day, as the Express reports that at least two people were killed when Russian missiles landed in NATO-member Poland near the Ukraine border. According to a spokeswoman, Poland has scheduled a national security committee meeting. Prior to the announcement, the yellow metal was sliding.

 

The US Dollar was under pressure on Monday with the release of Producer Price Index data that mirrored the Consumer Price Index from the previous week. The DXY dropped to its lowest level since mid-August near 105.35 and was on track to test the low from August 10 near 104.636. However, bulls have moved in and are once again treading water. US yields responded proportionally to the PPI, which came in at 8.0% versus 8.3% predicted and 8.4% (was 8.5%) in September. In September, the core came in at 6.7% YoY compared to 7.2% predicted and real. Brown Brothers Harriman analysts argued, "The PPI data will do nothing to dispel the perception that the Fed is coming closer to a pivot."

 

In the meantime, the US 2-year yield is trading above 4.37 percent, barely above Thursday's previous low near 4.27 percent. The 10-year yield is currently trading near 3.80%, which is lower than its recent low near 3.810% on Thursday. Analysts at BBH suggested that yields are likely to continue exploring the downside this week until contrary data emerge.