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Forecast for Gold Price: The XAUUSD crosses bearish area in consolidating markets

Alina Haynes

Nov 17, 2022 11:43

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Currently trading at $1,774.20, down 9.23%, the Gold price halted on Wednesday, gliding across the same bearish pattern as yesterday's $1,767.13 lows. The price of gold has maintained a tight consolidative range between $1,773.99 and $1,785.09 so far today. The precious metal is at a three-month high and continues lifted by a weaker dollar as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve would moderate its aggressive interest rate hikes in response to a slew of inflation-related data.

 

Despite stronger-than-anticipated US Retail Sales, which have clouded the inflation outlook, the safe-haven dollar declined further on Wednesday. Both the US Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index missed estimates last week, which has weighed on the greenback. DXY, an index that compares the US dollar to a basket of international currencies, fell around 7% in November, with the majority of the decline occurring last Friday in response to inflation statistics. Gold has benefited from the lower US yield environment, as benchmark 10-year yields have been near their lowest levels since October 5. Rising interest rates diminish the allure of non-yielding bullion.

 

In addition to the Federal Reserve, geopolitics is once again shifting the needle in financial markets after being relegated to the background for some time. Following reports that a missile near the Polish-Ukrainian border killed two people, the price of gold climbed to its highest level since August 15. An inquiry is currently being conducted, but tensions were high. To date, however, the United States has seen nothing that contradicts Poland's early assessment that a missile that fell within Polish territory on Tuesday was most likely a Ukrainian air defense missile. This information was provided by US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson on Wednesday.

 

"Whatever the ultimate results may be, it is apparent that the ultimate party accountable for this awful incident is Russia, which fired a barrage of missiles on Ukraine with the express intent of targeting civilian facilities," he stated. The easing of tensions has reduced demand for both gold and the U.S. dollar.

 

Gold's positioning risks are still tilted to the upside, according to TD Securities analysts. "A series of significant trend reversal thresholds associated with strong short covering flows lie just above the $1800/oz mark. Consequently, the pain trade in the yellow metal has opportunity to expand, indicating that the return on patience is high for those wanting to short the current surge.

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