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Flattening gas futures in Europe During Nord Stream Pipeline Upkeep

Haiden Holmes

Jul 12, 2022 11:18

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On Monday, European natural gas prices remained relatively stable as market participants braced for a complete cessation of Russian gas exports to Germany, the largest gas market in Europe.


Monday marked the start of a maintenance period for the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, essentially halting the flow of Russian gas to the largest market in Europe. The move was nominally routine, but it followed what the German government described as a politicized Russian decision to cut supplies by 60 percent last month. This has stoked fears that Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) will refuse to bring the pipeline back online at the end of the period, thereby aggravating Europe's energy crisis.


Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures for August, the benchmark for north-west Europe, were trading at 174.40 euros per megawatt-hour at 5:40 a.m. ET (9:40 a.m. GMT), down 0.5% on the day but up more than sixfold from their average level in the first half of 2014, before Russia began serious preparations for the invasion of Ukraine.


In the past two weeks, prices have increased to near all-time highs as the reduction of Russian gas supply has made it difficult for European buyers to continue stocking winter storage facilities. Gas Infrastructure Europe said on Saturday that EU storage was just 61,6 percent filled, the lowest level for early July in the past three years. To avert winter shortages, the EU has stipulated that it must be at least 90 percent full by the beginning of October.


The European energy infrastructure gained some relief over the weekend when the Canadian government permitted the return of compression equipment used on the Nord Stream pipeline to Russia after maintenance at a Canadian repair facility. However, the German government rejected this argument.


Siemens Energy noted in a press release, "The political export permission is a crucial and necessary first step for the delivery of the turbine." "Our professionals are presently intensively working on all further official approvals and logistics" so that it may be brought back up as soon as possible.


Regardless of the technical details, many European legislators are concerned that Russia would not reopen the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which delivers gas from the far north of Russia to Germany beneath the Baltic Sea, once maintenance is complete. Bruno Le Maire, the French Minister of Finance, warned over the weekend that a total supply cutoff is "the most likely scenario."


Le Maire has warned that France, similar to Germany, must prepare for industrial gas limits.


Le Maire addressed Rencontres Économiques, on the periphery of a business conference, "It takes a very specific study of each company and each industry." Which enterprises should reduce their energy use, and which cannot?


He singled out Saint Gobain SA (EPA:SGOB) as a company that would require privileged supplier access. Monday saw a 1.7% decline in Saint Gobain shares, which have already lost a third of their value this year owing to similar fears.


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