EUR/USD
1.17969
-0.082%
Gold
4919.06
-0.939%
Oil
63.686
-0.850%
USD/JPY
157.138
0.168%
GBP/USD
1.36194
-0.240%
GBP/JPY
214.018
-0.049%
Real-time News
1. Barclays: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged and may not make a clear statement on the timing of future rate cuts. A rate cut could come as early as next month, with lower inflation expectations and a weak labor market reinforcing the view that rates will be cut. 2. Goldman Sachs: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged. The vote was 7-2, and a rate cut could be more widely supported. Bailey may reiterate that there is room for rate cuts. A weak labor market will push for rate cuts to 3% in March, June, and September. 3. Capital Economics: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged, or may suggest that the next rate cut is not imminent and that rates may not fall significantly. If the prediction that CPI will fall below 2.0% comes true, then interest rates will fall to 3% instead of 3.5%. 4. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged due to stronger economic growth momentum. The more likely scenario now is a rate cut in May and another in August, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.25%. 5. HSBC: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Unlike the European Central Bank, the Bank of England seems less concerned about the deflationary effects of further dollar depreciation, which could support the pound against the euro in the short term. 6. Scotiabank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Since last August, the cycle of switching between rate cuts and maintaining rates has become longer, and the bank may lack a sense of urgency to cut rates. One or two more rate cuts are expected this year. 7. DBS Bank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Bank of England Governor Bailey previously warned that future easing decisions would be more cautious and dependent on economic data. The pound/dollar should maintain a weak bias. 8. Oxford Economics: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. If upcoming data gives the bank more confidence that wage growth is cooling, the next rate cut is likely to occur at the April meeting. 9. JPMorgan Chase: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with a 7-2 vote. The bank will raise its short-term unemployment forecast and lower its recent average wage growth and inflation forecasts, which will provide data support for a rate cut in March. 10. Nordea: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged due to more cautious wording in the previous forward guidance. The first rate cut is anticipated in March, but recent stronger growth momentum and risks favor a delay to April. 11. Trade France: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged and signal a gradual approach to rate cuts. Key swing trader Bailey is expected to support holding rates steady. A rate cut is expected at the end of April, with a high probability of two more cuts this year. 12. Morgan Stanley: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged, with a 6-3 vote and a riskier 5-4 outcome. Policy guidance is not expected to change. The terminal interest rate is expected to be 3%, with rate cuts in March, July, and November. February 5th - The All-China Federation of Trade Unions recently released a general plan for a special campaign to protect the rights and interests of workers in new employment forms. The plan outlines ten measures to safeguard their rights. In 2026, the focus will be on establishing and recruiting trade unions in platform companies, promoting algorithm-based collective bargaining, promptly coordinating and resolving key issues, and ensuring the implementation of service projects, thereby significantly improving the quality and efficiency of rights protection services for workers in new employment forms.February 5th – The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference on February 5th. Recently, the Office of the United States Trade Representative issued a statement regarding the WTO ruling in the case of Chinas complaint against the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. While acknowledging the loss, the statement criticized the WTO ruling as erroneous and claimed that the ruling demonstrates the inability of existing WTO rules to address issues such as "overcapacity." What is the Ministry of Commerces comment on this? Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong said, "We have noted the relevant statement from the U.S. side. Regarding the WTO dispute case between China and the U.S. regarding the Inflation Reduction Act, I would like to reiterate that the WTO panel has made an objective and fair ruling. This ruling reflects the basic consensus of WTO members, and the U.S., as a member of the WTO, should respect the ruling and abide by the rules."February 5th - During Asian trading hours, US Treasury yields fell slightly across the board, driven by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. In a report, Commerzbank analyst Erik Liem noted that Trumps nomination of Warsh strengthened market expectations that the Fed may not rely as heavily on balance sheet measures in the future. Meanwhile, the Treasurys decision to maintain stable auction sizes was in line with market expectations, although officials stated they are still assessing the possibility of increasing the size of future auctions of notes, bonds, and floating-rate bonds.Germanys manufacturing orders, adjusted for working days, rose 13% year-on-year in December, compared with 10.50% in the previous month.
