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September 14th - According to the New York Times, King Charles III of the United Kingdom will meet with leaders of major artificial intelligence companies in Scotland this week amid growing concerns that the rapid and unrestrained development of technology could lead to a global catastrophe. According to a statement from Buckingham Palace, Charles will convene company leaders, including those from Nvidia, Google, DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic, as well as government officials, to discuss how to develop and deploy artificial intelligence in a socially beneficial way. They will meet at Dumfries Manor, the headquarters of the Kings Foundation, an educational charity, in Ayrshire, southwest Scotland. This gathering comes at a time when AI insiders and some industry giants are issuing warnings about these tools and their rapid development. Some are calling for shared guidelines and a deliberate slowdown in development to ensure that humans can keep up. The Buckingham Palace statement said that the AI conference convened by Charles will explore how the technology can be used to benefit humanity, thereby enhancing community cohesion and improving peoples lives.September 14th - According to foreign media reports, US President Trump reiterated on the 13th that he supports Northern Irelands secession from the UK and its "union with Ireland." This comes a day after Trump made similar remarks, which drew strong opposition from British political circles. Speaking to the media in Ireland that day, Trump said, "Theres Northern Ireland, and theres Ireland. To me, it seems like the most natural thing to do to bring them together." When asked about Scotland, Trump stated that the issue would not be discussed at this time, saying, "Well talk about it later."On September 14, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister held a telephone conversation with the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister. During the call, they reviewed bilateral cooperation and discussed ways to support and strengthen this cooperation, as well as the latest regional situation, particularly diplomatic efforts and coordination aimed at easing tensions and enhancing regional security and stability. The Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister reaffirmed Qatars support for all diplomatic efforts and initiatives aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation at sea and paving the way for a comprehensive agreement to achieve lasting regional peace.Microsoft Chairman and CEO Satya Nadella: This is exactly the approach were taking—providing broad access and choice at every layer of the AI technology stack; giving enterprises control over the continuous learning loop and models; and adhering to a set of "codes of conduct" that apply to our self-developed first-party MAI models. We will release these guidelines tomorrow and solicit public feedback.Microsoft Chairman and CEO Satya Nadella: The key is that this field cannot be controlled by a few entities, but must involve the entire ecosystem, different countries and sectors, including academia.

EUR/USD falls to 1.0850 as German/US Data escalates the ECB-Fed Conflict

Alina Haynes

Feb 01, 2023 15:32

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Mid-1.0800s intraday support is reestablished for EUR/USD on Wednesday morning, reversing Tuesday's rebound gains. This demonstrates the market's uneasiness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. German economic risks to the EU, as well as mixed data from the United States and fears that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will yet support hawks, might potentially weigh on the currency.

 

The Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) climbed 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) on Tuesday, compared to 0.0% expected and 0.3% earlier. The year-over-year statistics were also good for the bloc, topping the market consensus of 1.8% to achieve 1.9%, compared to 2.3% previously. Nevertheless, German Retail Sales decreased 5.3% month-over-month in December, which was substantially worse than expected. Earlier in the week, the German GDP likewise disappointed EUR/USD pair speculators.

 

In contrast, the US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter declined to 1.0% compared to market estimates of 1.1% and previous readings of 1.2%. In addition, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence index dropped from 108.3 to 107.10 in January. The US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January, which rose to 44.3 vs 41 expected and 44.9 previous readings, does not merit substantial attention.

 

Aside from the United States, higher profit reports from industry leaders including General Motors, Exxon, and McDonald's alleviated the economic downturn and lifted Wall Street indices. Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all reported daily gains of greater than 1.0% on the previous trading day. In contrast, the yields on 10-year US Treasury notes reversed a three-day rise and returned to 3.51 percent, while their two-year equivalents plummeted to 4.20 percent.

 

It should be noted that JP Morgan's annual survey uncovered a reduction in inflation fears and a rise in recession fears, which tests the risk profile in the middle of pre-Fed anxiety. In spite of this, the world's largest rating agency, Fitch, forecasts that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) would moderate to the mid-3.0% band in 2023 and the high-2.0% range in 2024, putting pressure on EUR/USD bears.

 

As a result of these variables, S&P 500 Futures see minor losses, while US Treasury bond rates remain sluggish and halt their slide from the previous day. This allows the EUR/USD pair to prepare for the Federal Reserve's dovish rate hike of 0.25 percentage points.

 

While the 0.25 basis point Fed rate hike is virtually expected and has been priced in, EUR/USD traders will also pay close attention to January activity data and Jerome Powell's ability to defend aggressive rate hikes.


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