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EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0700 As US Data Fuel Hawkish Fed Predictions, Lagarde of the ECB Supports Higher Interest Rates

Daniel Rogers

Feb 16, 2023 14:51

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The EUR/USD pair approaches 1.0690 but struggles to prolong the recovery from late Wednesday to early Thursday. Notwithstanding, the major currency pair dropped the most in a week as US data bolstered Fed bets and pushed US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar to multi-day highs. Christine Lagarde's recent hawkish comments on the European Central Bank (ECB) looked to have strengthened prices.

 

In spite of this, US 10-year Treasury bond yields surged to a fresh six-week high, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) also climbed to a 1.5-month high, as key US data suggested the Federal Reserve (Fed) may increase interest rates further.

 

As announced on Wednesday, January US Retail Sales growth increased to 3.0% from 1.8% expected and -1.0% earlier. In addition, Retail Sales excluding Automobiles grew by 2.3% during the same month, exceeding experts' projections of growth of 0.8%. Similarly, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for February increased to -5.8 from -18.0 and market forecasts of -32.9. Alternately, US Industrial Production reported 0.0% MoM figures for January, contrary to analysts' expectations of 0.5% and prior readings of -0.7%, but failed to quell hawkish attitude surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move.

 

According to Reuters' FEDWATCH tool, market wagers on the Fed's next moves indicate that US central bank rates will peak around 5.25 percent in July, as opposed to the Federal Reserve's December prediction of 5.10 percent.

 

Lagarde of the ECB, on the other hand, stated that despite the fact that the majority of indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are currently hovering around 2%, these indices require constant monitoring. The policymaker stated, "Price pressures remain elevated, and underlying inflation is elevated," while signaling her intent to increase rates by 50 basis points at the March meeting.

 

Wall Street benchmarks concluded the trading day with small increases, but S&P 500 Futures are reluctant to follow suit.

 

In the near future, the ECB's monthly speech and several ECB speakers will complement the secondary US housing market, industrial activity, and producer pricing data to create an intriguing day.


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