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On April 27th, data from the State Taxation Administration showed that in the year since the implementation of the "instant tax refund upon purchase" policy for departing tourists, the number of people applying nationwide has increased by 12.96 times year-on-year, while the sales volume and amount of tax refunds have increased by 9.35 times year-on-year, demonstrating rapid growth in business scale. It is understood that "instant tax refund upon purchase" means that in regions where the departing tourists have implemented the tax refund policy, when purchasing tax-refundable goods at "instant refund" stores, they can sign an agreement and pre-authorize their credit cards to receive a refund in RMB equivalent to the tax amount on-site at the store. The government actively encourages eligible tax refund stores to provide "instant refund upon purchase" services. Currently, there are over 8,000 tax refund stores nationwide offering this service, an increase of over 100% compared to when the policy was first rolled out nationwide a year ago.On April 27th, Kei Fujimoto, an economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, stated that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.75% on Tuesday. However, even if it pauses its actions, it doesnt necessarily mean a further postponement of interest rate hikes. He said, "The Bank of Japan has repeatedly emphasized that financial conditions remain accommodative, and its policy stance still leans towards tightening." The economist added, "If tensions in the Middle East ease and uncertainty decreases even slightly, the likelihood of a rate hike in June or July will increase."On April 27, the National Energy Administration (NEA) held a press conference. Pan Huimin, Deputy Director of the NEAs New Energy Department, stated that the next step will be to improve market trading mechanisms. This includes continuously improving the green certificate pricing mechanism, researching and formulating a green certificate price index and releasing it to the public in due course to stabilize enterprises expectations regarding green certificate prices. The NEA will also expand the scale of green certificate consumption, implement the requirements of the Energy Law of the Peoples Republic of China, establish a minimum renewable energy consumption target system, and guide more key energy-consuming industries to play a leading role in green electricity consumption. Furthermore, the NEA will promote "green vehicles charging green electricity" and residential green electricity retail packages to create a positive atmosphere for proactive green consumption throughout society.April 27th - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. Keisuke Tsuruta, senior bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, stated that the market is currently paying close attention to the extent to which Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hint at a possible rate hike in June. Such comments will alter market expectations regarding the policy rate path and could potentially impact the Japanese government bond yield curve.On April 27th, Kei Fujimoto, an economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, stated that the yen is likely to remain weak regardless of how the situation in the Middle East develops. He said, "Even if the conflict with Iran eases, oil prices are likely to remain high given the continued supply constraints. Concerns about deteriorating fiscal conditions and a weakening trade balance are expected to persist, making it difficult for the yen to appreciate in the short term." He also pointed out that given the current yen weakness is driven more by economic fundamentals than speculative factors, the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention may be limited.

EUR/GBP Rebounds from 0.8400 on ECB-BOE Divergence

Larissa Barlow

Apr 26, 2022 10:06

The EUR/GBP pair is reversing course from 0.8400, following a precipitous plunge from Monday's high of 0.8440. The pair has remained firmer in recent trading days, despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) President's speech at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting adopting a dovish position.

 

The ECB's officials do not anticipate a rate hike until its Asset Purchase Program is completed (APP). The central bank has stressed the importance of lowering growth expectations in light of the Ukraine crisis and a large decline in household real income due to increasing energy costs and commodities prices. The circumstances need a stagflationary situation in the eurozone. Meanwhile, investors are focused on Wednesday's speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. The speech will set the stage for the monetary policy narrative that will be dictated in the policy announcement.

 

Meanwhile, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey rekindled fears of increasing inflation in the pound area during his testimony on Thursday. As per his directive, investors should begin bracing for a further increase in inflation, which might result in higher interest rates.

 

Although the ECB's Christine Lagarde's speech on Wednesday will be crucial, investors will also be focused on Thursday's eurozone Consumer Confidence report. Euro Consumer Confidence is -16.9, unchanged from its previous close.

EUR/GBP

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