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June 11th - TD Securities analysts stated that the European Central Bank (ECB) appears poised to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% due to accelerating inflation and the potential for energy-related pressures to spill over into core and service prices. The market seems to view the June rate hike as not a one-off move, but rather the beginning of a limited tightening policy, with a roughly 65% probability of another rate hike in September and the possibility of action by December already fully priced in. Given the widespread inflation concerns, we believe this view is reasonable: rising energy costs are pushing up overall inflation, and these pressures could ripple through service prices, wages, and expectations. Therefore, if upcoming data confirms that underlying inflation is not easing quickly enough, the likelihood of another rate hike in September is high.Nasdaq 100 futures extended gains to 1%, Dow Jones futures rose 0.66%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.74%.German Chancellor Merz: Proposing Ukraines accession to the EU means that Ukraine will participate in EU Council meetings and Ministerial Council meetings, but Ukraine will not have voting rights.June 11 – Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian held a regular press conference on June 11. According to the Financial Times, China has cancelled its high-level meeting with the EU this month due to escalating trade tensions. What is the spokespersons view on this? Furthermore, will Commerce Minister Wang Wentao still visit the EU later this month as reported? Lin Jian stated that regarding your first question, as far as we know, China and the EU are maintaining communication on relevant dialogues. Regarding your second question, I suggest you inquire with the relevant Chinese authorities.German Chancellor Merz: Our goal in Ukraine remains to achieve a just and lasting peace, while also taking into account Germanys security interests.

EUR/GBP Rebounds from 0.8400 on ECB-BOE Divergence

Larissa Barlow

Apr 26, 2022 10:06

The EUR/GBP pair is reversing course from 0.8400, following a precipitous plunge from Monday's high of 0.8440. The pair has remained firmer in recent trading days, despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) President's speech at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting adopting a dovish position.

 

The ECB's officials do not anticipate a rate hike until its Asset Purchase Program is completed (APP). The central bank has stressed the importance of lowering growth expectations in light of the Ukraine crisis and a large decline in household real income due to increasing energy costs and commodities prices. The circumstances need a stagflationary situation in the eurozone. Meanwhile, investors are focused on Wednesday's speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. The speech will set the stage for the monetary policy narrative that will be dictated in the policy announcement.

 

Meanwhile, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey rekindled fears of increasing inflation in the pound area during his testimony on Thursday. As per his directive, investors should begin bracing for a further increase in inflation, which might result in higher interest rates.

 

Although the ECB's Christine Lagarde's speech on Wednesday will be crucial, investors will also be focused on Thursday's eurozone Consumer Confidence report. Euro Consumer Confidence is -16.9, unchanged from its previous close.

EUR/GBP

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