EUR/USD 1.16297
0.207%
Gold 4536.36
1.214%
Oil 98.111
-5.045%
USD/JPY 158.707
-0.222%
GBP/USD 1.34477
0.400%
GBP/JPY 213.429
0.182%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On May 20th, four sources revealed that a June rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) is a foregone conclusion, but the bank is cautious about further action, aiming to curb market expectations of swift follow-up action in July. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in April, but internal discussions about a rate hike had taken place, with hints of a possible June action due to persistently high energy costs. Sources stated that the inflation outlook is currently developing in the "unfavorable scenario" envisioned by the ECB, and with no signs of easing tensions in Iran, the bank must act at its next meeting. This is because inflation has reached 3%, far exceeding the 2% target, and the bank needs to maintain its credibility after signaling a policy adjustment. They added, "Even if a peace agreement is reached before the meeting, there is no guarantee that it will remain effective, and energy prices will remain high for some time as markets take time to return to normal." However, a subsequent rate hike is not urgent, as current price pressures are much milder than in 2022, and the long-term effects of this price surge have not yet materialized. Several factors suggest that the bank may postpone its July plans until September to make new forecasts, unless the inflation outlook deteriorates significantly.Samsung union official: Under the provisional agreement, Samsung is expected to allocate approximately 11.5% of its operating profit to bonuses.According to Saudi media Alhadath: Pakistans Interior Minister met with Iranian President Pezeshizian in Tehran.1. According to the EIA report: For the week ending May 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 112,000 barrels per day to 5.604 million barrels per day; U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 9.92 million barrels to 374.2 million barrels, a decrease of 2.58%; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 7.863 million barrels to 445 million barrels, a decrease of 1.74%. 2. According to Al Jazeera, sources indicated that all parties are working diligently to finalize the text of the agreement between Washington and Tehran. The Pakistani Army Chief of Staff may visit Iran tomorrow to announce that the final version of the agreement text has been completed. 3. The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that in March 2026, global primary aluminum production will be 5.6333 million tons, consumption will be 5.9774 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 344,100 tons. 1. In the first quarter of 2026, global primary aluminum production was 17.5159 million tons, while consumption was 17.8796 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 363,700 tons. 2. The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that in March 2026, global refined copper production was 2.2792 million tons, while consumption was 2.1357 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 143,500 tons. 3. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated: "The enemys overt and covert actions indicate that they are seeking a new round of war. The people can rest assured that our armed forces have made full use of the ceasefire opportunity to rebuild their capabilities in the best way." 4. The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) released the latest soybean and processed product forecast data: Brazils soybean harvest in 2026 is expected to reach a record 180.13 million tons, a 5% increase over the previous year, compared to a forecast of 177.85 million tons last month. Brazils soybean ending stocks for 2026 are projected to reach 8.25 million tons, an increase of approximately 1.5 million tons from the April forecast, marking the highest level since 2017. Brazils soybean exports for 2026 are projected to reach a record 114.1 million tons, up from 113.6 million tons in the previous months forecast. The CEO of Freeport Indonesia stated that the recovery process at the Grasberg gold and copper mine is taking longer than expected, with operations expected to reach near full capacity by the end of 2027.Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The United States has made many demands, but the question is, why would Iran want to transfer its materials to another country? Think back to the past when no one was worried about our nuclear program at all, and now everyone still knows that our nuclear program is 100% peaceful.

Despite Japan's holiday, the USD/JPY has recovered to 143.00 while the Fed and BOJ remain vigilant

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-09-19 上午9.45.18.png

 

In spite of Monday's limited USD/JPY action due to Japan's vacation, the USD/JPY has recovered from intraday lows and is moving closer to recovering 143.00. The gold market is widely predicted to react strongly to the monetary policy meeting between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week (BOJ).

 

Wall Street's major indexes ended the day on a down note, but the S&P 500 Futures are showing slight gains.

 

US Vice President Joe Biden's recent upbeat comments could be to blame. The head of state has also assured the public that inflation will be reduced. Covid developments from China include the unlocking of the city of Dalian in the province of Liaoning, the continued absence of coronavirus cases in Beijing, and the discovery of one such case outside of the Shanghai quarantine zone, up from the absence of any the day before.

 

USD/JPY purchasers appear to be bullish ahead of the significant monetary policy declarations due to President Biden's commitment to help Taiwan in the event that China strikes Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Fed. It should be noted, however, that speculation over the BOJ's intervention appears to have halted the recent bull market.

 

The University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer sentiment index of 59.5 was up from the preliminary reading of 58.5 in August but still below market estimates of 60.0. The market's expectations of a full one percentage point increase in the Fed rate rose to 18% in light of the improved US statistics, while the probability of a 75 basis point (bps) boost by the Fed increased to above 80%, or 82% at the time of publication.

 

This session of USD/JPY could be slow due to the Japanese holiday and the relatively empty economic calendar. The Fed versus BOJ clash will be key for pair traders to observe this week. The economic forecasts and pronouncements of the various central bank heads are crucial, in addition to the interest rate announcements, which are generally factored in. It's possible that the USD/JPY might drop if Fed Chair Powell disillusions US dollar bulls and the BOJ shows it's willing to defend the yen through intervention.


Suggestion