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On August 29th, NBC News, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth has been discussing the possibility of running for president in 2028 with close associates in recent months. Hegseth and his wife believe he shares some similarities with Trump, including a tough, confrontational style and conservative stances on social issues, which could garner support from the MAGA base. This month, Hegseth also traveled to Iowa to campaign for Republican lawmakers. Iowa has long been a key outpost in US presidential elections, further fueling speculation that he is preparing to run. If he does run, Hegseth could compete with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and others. However, a Pentagon spokesperson denied the claims, stating that "Secretary Hegseth will not run for president," and that his primary focus remains leading the Department of Defense. The report points out that the ongoing war with Iran could be a major political burden for Hegseth, with 18 US military personnel already killed and the average US gasoline price rising from less than $3 per gallon to slightly over $4.On August 29th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian stated that todays changes in the US Treasury yield curve released two signals. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed by approximately 7 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields narrowed by approximately 10 basis points, showing a flattening trend. El-Erian believes this reflects a dual interpretation in the fixed-income market: in the short term, it represents a hawkish repricing following Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs firm commitment to the inflation target; in the long term, it reflects recognition of the Federal Reserves long-term credibility.According to NBC News, U.S. Defense Secretary Hergsays is considering running for president in 2028.On August 29th, Deutsche Bank economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December. Fed Chairman Warsh, in his Jackson Hole speech, emphasized the need to bring inflation back to the 2% target and released a clearly hawkish signal. Deutsche Bank believes that unless future economic data is "significantly weaker than expected," the threshold for avoiding a 25 basis point rate hike in September is already very high. The market has also quickly increased its bets on rate hikes: CME data shows that the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points or more by December has risen to 51%, up from only 29% the previous day; the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 38%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 11%. Following Warshs speech, market bets on a September rate hike have also clearly intensified.US President Trump criticized New York Governor Hoher for "taking Canadas side," refusing to use the name "American Lake," and "preferring Canada to win," while also supporting Blackman as the next governor of New York.

Copper Rises on Supply Concerns While Gold Falls

Aria Thomas

Oct 28, 2022 14:59

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Copper prices were poised for a third consecutive week of gains due to supply concerns in the coming months. Gold prices dipped modestly on Friday as the dollar rebounded on stronger-than-expected third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product numbers.


As Thursday's statistics revealed that the U.S. economy was performing better than expected under the rate increase regime, sentiment toward industrial metals improved. Nonetheless, the prognosis remains cloudy.


Indicators of economic robustness give the Federal Reserve greater space to continue rapidly hiking interest rates. This increased the currency and Treasury yields, putting downward pressure on the price of metals.


The data issued on Thursday increased traders' expectations for a 75 basis point (bps) hike, which decreased expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its rate of interest rate increases in December. The gold price trend may be bearish, particularly in light of positioning for higher U.S. interest rates.


Next week, it is largely expected that the central bank would hike interest rates by 75 basis points, its fourth increase of this nature this year.


This year, rising interest rates dramatically increased the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding asset, which weighed on the price of gold.


As of 19:59 E.T., spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,661.86 per ounce, while gold futures stayed unchanged at $1,665.80 per ounce (23:59 GMT). Due to a sinking dollar, it was anticipated that both assets would finish the week with moderate gains.


This week, copper prices dramatically improved and were poised for their third consecutive week of gains with a 1.5% increase.


The red metal's prices have largely shrugged off concerns over China's sluggish demand, with the focus now shifting to a potential supply bottleneck. Copper supply is expected to tighten in the coming months due to a decrease in Chilean output and U.S. sanctions against select Russian producers.


In addition, the red metal's demand is expected to increase as a result of a global push for electrification, with certain nations aiming to shift away from fossil fuels. Copper consumption is predicted to increase alongside the demand for electric vehicles.


Recently, Trafigura, a major commodities trader, issued a warning that current copper supply is insufficient to support such an increase in demand.


On Friday, copper futures fell 0.2% to $3.5215 per pound.