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December 12th - Market analysts say oil prices rose today, but a significant drop is still possible this week. Diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with overall bearish fundamentals, suggest a supply glut next year. Next week, market focus is expected to be on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, while traders also watch the escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that market-expected surpluses have narrowed, but a large supply glut still casts a shadow over the outlook. In contrast, OPECs supply and demand forecasts point to a relatively balanced market next year. ANZ analysts said, "This is a stark reversal of the outlook that predicted a tighter market earlier this year."On December 12th, KPMGs Chief UK Economist, Yael Selfin, stated in a report that UK GDP contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in the three months of October, and growth is expected to remain weak for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Economic activity in November may be constrained by uncertainty surrounding the government budget. She pointed out that although the budget avoided an early tax increase and borrowing costs are expected to decline over the next year, its impact may persist, and household confidence is unlikely to improve in the short term. The outlook for investment growth is more optimistic and should be a key driver of economic growth in 2026. However, she expects GDP to remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2025.The Kremlin: The US will discuss the results of its negotiations with Ukraine with Moscow sooner or later. However, Moscow has not yet seen the revised proposals following the US-Ukraine negotiations and may "dislike much of it."Data shows that Russias seaborne petroleum product exports in November decreased by 0.8% compared to October.On December 12th, Citigroup Chief Economist Nathan Sheets stated in a report that while U.S. debt levels pose a headwind to the economy and markets, they should be manageable. "Any premium demanded by the market to absorb upcoming U.S. Treasury issuances will not significantly constrain economic growth or the governments borrowing capacity," he noted. He pointed out that the core strengths of the U.S. economy, including its resilience and dynamism, give investors confidence to buy U.S. Treasuries even in the face of high debt levels and political noise. "And ultimately, there are virtually no substitutes for U.S. Treasuries."

Bulls Face a Wall of Resistance Around 1.0960-1.1000 in the AUD/NZD Price Analysis

Alina Haynes

Apr 29, 2022 09:56

The AUD/NZD is ready to recoup some of the week's losses, climbing for the third consecutive day, up a modest 0.13 percent as the Asian Pacific session begins. The AUD/NZD currency pair is trading at 1.0943 at the time of writing.

 

The week's lack of New Zealand data left the AUD/NZD exposed to the Australian economic calendar, which revealed that inflation increased by 5.1 percent year on year, above expectations of 4.6 percent and blowing the headline reading of 3.5 percent. Core inflation increased to its highest level since 2009, 3.7 percent, up from a previous reading of 2.6 percent.

 

Apart from that, sentiment improved throughout the day, and the Asian session reflected the tone on Wall Street. Investors were kept on their toes by China's coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, market participants shrugged aside the Ukraine-Russian spat and a weaker-than-expected US growth report as desire for risky assets surged.

 

As a result, the AUD/NZD appreciated last week on anticipation of a May rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Nonetheless, an Australian Federal Election could dissuade the RBA from acting despite a strong inflation report.

Forecasting the AUD/NZD Exchange Rate: A Technical Analysis

The AUD/NZD currency pair's bias is bullish. The pair is in an uptrend as shown by the daily moving averages (DMAs) below the exchange rate. However, Thursday's price action hit strong resistance near 1.0962, a zone that is surrounded by resistance levels between 1.0960 and 1.1000.

 

The AUD/initial NZD's resistance level on the upside would be April's 28 daily high of 1.0962. After clearing 1.0975, the next supply zone would be 1.0998.

 

On the other hand, the first demand zone for the AUD/NZD would be 1.0900. If the pair breaks below 1.0880, it will expose April's 28 swing low at 1.0824, followed by April's 25 swing low at 1.0824.

 

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