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On May 5, according to CMEs "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 63.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 35.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.1%.Spot gold opened basically flat on Monday, currently trading at $3,243.89 an ounce.1. Chechen leader: Ukrainian troops try to return to Kursk. 2. Temporary restrictions imposed at Vnukovo Airport in Moscow, Russia. 3. Ukrainian military: 69 drones launched by Russia were shot down overnight. 4. Putin said he has been considering the issue of succession, but the final choice will be made by the Russian people. 5. According to Interfax: Russian President Putin said that we have enough strength and means to push the conflict with Ukraine to a reasonable end. 6. According to Ukrainian Pravda: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that in the past 24 hours, the Russian army lost two fighter planes, 1,340 soldiers were killed or wounded, and 11 tanks.On May 5, Japans attitude towards using U.S. debt as a negotiating tool with the United States reversed again. According to Nikkei News, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Sunday (May 4) that Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to gain an advantage in trade negotiations with the United States, and Japan does not consider the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds to be a tool for Japan-U.S. negotiations. Katsunobu Kato said last Friday that although Japan would not easily sell its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, they were a "card" for negotiations with the United States on trade issues; he overturned this statement at a press conference on Sunday. The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that as of the end of March, Japan held $1.27 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, most of which were U.S. Treasury bonds. Foreign exchange reserves can be used to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In April, Katsunobu Kato ruled out the possibility of using Japans holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as a negotiating tool.On May 5, the Israeli Prime Ministers Office issued a statement on the evening of May 4 local time, saying that Israel will retaliate against the Houthi armed forces and their ally Iran in response to the missile attack on Tel Avivs Ben-Gurion International Airport earlier that day. The statement said that the attack by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen "originated from Iran" and Israel will choose the time and place to take action against Iran, the force behind the Houthi armed forces. Iran has not responded to this yet.

As Oil Bulls Relax And US Inflation Is Monitored, USD/CAD Recovers Around 1.3350

Daniel Rogers

Feb 13, 2023 14:42

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The USD/CAD rebounds from a five-week low. After a solid employment report and an increase in oil prices, Loonie bears joined the market. Before the release of the US CPI, aggressive Fed comments and good US data test sellers.

 

After falling the most in five weeks the previous day, the USD/CAD is fluctuating around the middle of the 1.3300s in the early Asian session on Monday. Ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Loonie/U.S. dollar pair exhibits market consolidation amid mixed US signals.

 

After a strong Canadian employment report and a rise in WTI crude oil prices, the Loonie pair dropped the most since the beginning of January.

 

WTI crude oil reached a new monthly high of $80.48 the day before, despite market rumors that Russia may reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels in March to counter European penalties.

 

The Net Change in Employment for January in Canada increased to 150K from 15K expected and 69.2K revised. The unemployment rate was 5.0%, not 5.1%.

 

As evidenced by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem's dovish comments, the stronger Canadian employment report makes it tougher for the Bank of Canada to pause its rate hike trajectory, benefiting USD/CAD bears.

 

Nevertheless, preliminary US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February increased to 66.4 from 65.0 anticipated and 64.9 previously. This month, the UoM announced that inflation forecasts for the coming year jumped to 4.2% from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December. UoM said that long-term inflation estimates (5-year) stayed at 2.9% for the third consecutive month and remained within a narrow band of 2.9% to 3.1% for 18 of the last 19 months. Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusted the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) from -0.1% to 0.1% based on revised seasonal adjustment variables.

 

Recent contradicting statements from Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin and the US-China dispute over "unidentified objects" appear to challenge sentiment and boost the USD due to its safe-haven status.

 

S&P 500 Futures decrease as interest rates on US Treasury bonds increase, benefiting the US Dollar and USD/CAD buyers ahead of critical US inflation data.

 

Due to reports of a Fed policy shift, USD/CAD traders should monitor risk catalysts before to the January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday.


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