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On March 15th, Matt Reed, Vice President of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, stated that an attack on Kharg Island could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil-producing countries. He said, "Iran will retaliate in kind." The United States warned on Friday that if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Islands oil facilities could become the next target. Reed warned that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be to find alternative energy supplies. "At least 10 million barrels of oil are trapped in the Gulf every day, plus more than 4 million barrels of refined petroleum products and tens of billions of cubic feet of liquefied natural gas, with no easy alternatives." The International Energy Agency has announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history, with 32 member countries planning to release approximately 400 million barrels of oil. However, Reed believes this measure will have limited effect, stating, "By the time the oil gets to the market, it may be too little, too late." He described it as nothing more than a "band-aid."On March 15th, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in the past 48 hours, the US and Israel had launched attacks on several civilian industrial facilities in Iran, resulting in the deaths of several workers. The statement said that after setbacks in its confrontation with Iran, the US and Israel have turned to attacking non-military industrial facilities. Iran warned that US companies in the region should withdraw from their facilities and urged nearby residents to stay away from industrial areas with US capital involvement to avoid potential attacks.The Swiss government has discussed the US request for military overflight. In accordance with the principle of neutrality, the Federal Council rejected two requests related to the war with Iran.Local officials said operations at the Lanaz refinery in Iraq’s Erbil province have been suspended until the fire is extinguished and the damage is assessed.On March 15th, Colombian Energy Minister Edwin Palma posted on the X platform that Venezuelas state-owned oil company PDVSA intends to terminate its contract with Colombias state-owned oil company Ecopetrol regarding the Antonio Ricardo pipeline, citing insufficient investment in its maintenance. Palma stated that the Colombian government plans to meet with the US government next Monday to discuss lifting sanctions in an effort to normalize commercial relations with Venezuela. Palma also indicated that Colombia has approved a license to resume imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Venezuela at a rate of 1.26 million gallons per month.

According to Bailey of the BOE, the GBP/USD is under pressure at its two-year low of 1.1900

Alina Haynes

Jul 12, 2022 14:41

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Following a test of the two-year bottom at 1.1845 the day before, GBP/USD bears tinker with the 1.1900 level during Tuesday's Asian session. Recent losses for the Cable pair may be related to British political developments and concerns of a recession.

 

Following Boris Johnson's ouster, a number of well-known British officials are vying for the presidency, including former chancellor Rishi Sunak, foreign secretary Liz Truss, and current UK finance minister Nadhim Zahawi. Although Brexit is the main element supporting the candidate, tax cuts are being emphasized as the promise to win over supporters.

 

According to a survey of the retail sector, which was released on Tuesday by Reuters, British customers cut down on their purchases for the third month in a row, and sales volumes fell by the most since the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

The Bank of England's Andrew Bailey told Reuters that "the United Kingdom is facing a very substantial real income shock." Due to the nation's economic unease, the news also puts negative pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

On a larger scale, fears of an economic downturn were exacerbated by historically high US inflation forecasts and comments from US leaders foreseeing future suffering, which fueled the risk-averse mood and pulled down the GBP/USD currency rate. Despite this, a research by the New York Federal Reserve found that one-year inflation estimates in the US rose to a record high of 6.8 percent in June from 6.6 percent in May. Expectations of Fed aggression, which were earlier reinforced by the most recent US job statistics, are another factor adding to the market doom. While the unemployment rate held stable at 3.6 percent, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) expanded by 372K in June, above projections of 268K and a downward adjustment of 384K.

 

In this setting, equities continued to decline, while US Treasury rates showed no signs of abating. S&P 500 Futures also keep an eye on Wall Street losses as of publication.

 

For traders of the GBP/USD pair, Governor Bailey of the Bank of England's second round of testimony will be essential. However, risk factors including political events and inflationary concerns will be the major emphasis.


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