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On August 13th, sources close to the European Commission president stated that Ukraines allies are evaluating a gradual easing of sanctions against Russia if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement is reached. The source added that sanctions would be reimposed in the event of a violation of the agreement. They hope to immediately reach a 15-day ceasefire (during which sanctions would remain in effect) before a more organized pause in the conflict in Ukraine can be achieved. Separately, Italian government sources stated that they will push Trump to include Europe in his discussions on Ukraine during his video call with Putin later today. An Italian diplomat explained, "He has been asking European countries to increase military spending, so we must be involved in these decisions." The source added that during the call, Italy will emphasize the need for clear military, economic, and political guarantees for Ukraine.AMD (AMD.O) shares rose 3% in pre-market trading in the U.S.Poland signs $3.8 billion deal to boost F-16 fleet capabilities.On August 13, CNBC reported that two unnamed government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unnamed names. These new members include Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey, and BlackRocks Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder. They join the eight candidates previously confirmed by CNBC: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson. Officials also confirmed that the list also includes Mark Summerlin, a former economic adviser in the Bush administration; Dallas Fed President Logan; and former St. Louis Fed President Bullard. Officials described a "deliberative process" in which Treasury Secretary Bessant will meet with all candidates, whittle down the list, and present the final list to the president for a decision. The size of the list and the process described suggest a decision is not imminent and could take considerable time. However, officials declined to provide a timeline.On August 13th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said in an interview that the Federal Reserves interest rate should be 150-175 basis points lower than it is now, and that if the data were accurate, the Fed could have cut rates earlier. Bessant believes a 50 basis point rate cut is possible, with a series of cuts likely starting in September. Regarding the selection of the Fed chair, he mentioned that they will cast a wide net, encompassing 10-11 people. He also stated that he had proposed establishing a "shadow Fed chair" but now believes it is unnecessary. Furthermore, Bessant believes the Fed does not need to resume large-scale asset purchases (QE). Regarding the jobs report, he expressed opposition to halting its release, but emphasized the need for reliable data. Some analysts say the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is now almost zero. For this to happen, another weak non-farm payroll report would likely be needed in September.

AUD/JPY is anticipated to decline to 92.00 based on stable Japan Employment data

Daniel Rogers

Nov 29, 2022 15:10

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As a result of the Statistics Bureau of Japan's publication of robust employment data, it is anticipated that the AUD/JPY pair will extend its slide into the crucial support level of 92.00. The Unemployment Rate was 2.6%, beating expectations of 2.5% but matching the prior announcement of 2.6%. While the employment-to-applicant ratio has been recorded at 1.35, in accordance with projections, it is greater than the prior figure of 1.34.

 

As a result of rising protests in China against the Chinese government's lifting of Covid-19 lockup restrictions, the Australian dollar has suffered and the risk barometer is experiencing a rough patch. After hearing tales of public protest over restrictions, experts wasted little time in providing negative economic estimates for China.

 

No one could deny that diminished expectations for China will harm more than simply the economy of the dragon. Even major trading partners, including Australia and New Zealand, feel the heat. China's protest-inspired risk aversion has sent the AUD/JPY pair near to the 92,000 mark.

 

Notably, the demand for democracy in place of authoritarianism may cause political instability inside the Chinese economy. This may further decrease investors' risk appetite.

 

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI data released on Thursday will be the focus of investors' attention moving forward. The expected economic data is 48.6, compared to 49.2 in the previous release. A Caixin Manufacturing data that is weaker than expected could boost market volatility.